__Good beer, bad cannabis...__ __[Constellation Brands](https://robinhood.com/stocks/STZ)__ already owns your one fancy buddy's liquor cabinet: High West whiskey, Ballast Point craft beer, Robert Mondavi wines, and Corona. But shares fell 6% because of its other vice: the $4B investment it made in the world's biggest pot company (__[Canopy Growth](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CGC)__) dropped $1.3B in value over the last quarter. Even huge companies make bad stock investments.

__Here, try this instead...__ A Corona-branded spiked seltzer. The experienced drinkers over at Constellation [noticed](https://www.wsj.com/articles/cannabis-investment-weighs-on-constellations-latest-results-11570104807) that 90-calorie, anti-carb, alcohol-infused sparkling water had made "an impact" on their beer sales last summer. They also think the spiked seltzer trend is "here to stay," so they're making their own:  

- __4 flavors:__ Mango, cherry, blackberry lime, and Tropical lime-flavored [Corona Hard Seltzer](https://www.brewbound.com/news/corona-hard-seltzer-coming-next-spring-constellations-shipments-and-depletions-grow-in-q2). 
- __1 trend:__ US sales of spiked seltzer nearly [tripled](https://www.wsj.com/articles/its-the-fizz-how-seltzer-is-upending-coffee-and-beer-1535371200?mod=article_inline) over the last year to $295M.

_That tastes-like-seltzer-made-by-a-beer-company reaction_

__You don’t just jump into a new category — *you strategize into it*...__ Constellation is targeting a specific area of spiked seltzer: Upscale. The execs believe *there are laws* when you're drinking White Claw, and that spiked seltzers will expand from low-end (where they are now) to high-end. Constellation doesn't like to play bottom-shelf, so its positioning Corona Hard Seltzer as your indulgent beachside date, not a bachelorette party default.

Liquor legend Constellation drops 6% — but jumps into hard seltzer

__Who's going to make the "Uber for staffing"?...__ Turns out it's __[Uber](https://robinhood.com/stocks/UBER)__. With deep profitability problems in its core ride/food delivery apps, Uber hopes this becomes its profit puppy: [Uber Works](https://www.npr.org/2019/10/03/766861700/uber-launches-an-app-to-connect-job-seekers-with-gig-work). The new app is the essence of gig — connecting humans who want work with people who need work. It launched in Chicago, and here are some scenarios you could Uber Work for:

- 🍽 __Events:__ Cook, bartend, set-up/clean-up. Uber Works finds the restaurant, bar, or party that's desperate for side-hustlers.
- 📦 __Warehousing:__ Help with inventory, shipping, or packaging. Uber Works connects you with a factory in need.

__Staffing is hard...__ and it's dominated by local or industry-specific firms sticking people like Ryan Howard into a role at Dunder Mifflin (and charging a fee for it). Uber Works replaces that with its app's secret algorithm to balance supply with demand through dynamic (aka "surge") pricing. The pricing in this case being an hourly wage.

_"Hello, Uber? Thanks for helping me find work"_

Hustle

__Uber's got an "independent contractor" problem...__ but Uber Works probably won't face it. California recently [passed](https://www.vox.com/2019/9/11/20850878/california-passes-ab5-bill-uber-lyft) a law requiring Uber to treat drivers as full-time employees with benefits (benefits = expensive.). With Works though, Uber is purely a middleman, taking a fee from a variety of businesses that find gig workers via Uber. It's a cleaner transaction with fewer legal question marks.

The 4th Uber app has arrived: Uber Works is the Uber for temp workers

Dow Jones

S&P 500

Nasdaq

Bitcoin

10-Yr US Treasury

Corona Hard Seltzer vs. White Claw

__It's product unveil season...__ We expected __[Microsoft](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MSFT)__ to show us new Surface tablets for your aunt's holiday wish list. We didn't expect a smart device that defies labels. The [dual-screen Surface Duo](https://www.cnet.com/news/microsoft-phone-really-happening-introducing-surface-duo/) arrives next year — Picture 2 iPhones connected book-style at the spine so they fold. We call it the "*Phonebook*." Just don't call it a phone (Microsoft hates that).

__Bill Gates' has accepted his destiny...__ The billionaire co-founder's #1 [mistake](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/24/bill-gates-says-his-biggest-mistake-was-not-beating-google-on-android.html) was letting Android (owned by __[Alphabet](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GOOG)__) become the leader of mobile phone software. Software was Microsoft's thing (just ask [Clippy](https://www.theverge.com/2019/3/22/18276923/microsoft-clippy-microsoft-teams-stickers-removal)). Now Microsoft's new hardware runs on Android's operating system — shocking for the company defined by its historic operating system domination.

"_Speak directly into my new Microsoft phonebook_"

Invent

__Microsoft has its swagger back...__ It embarrassingly missed on smartphones the 1st time — it acquired Nokia in 2013, didn't do much with it, then [killed](https://www.theverge.com/2017/10/10/16452162/windows-phone-history-glorious-failure) its Windows phone in 2017. Since then, Microsoft's stock has grown 90% and it's now the most valuable publicly-traded company on Earth. With that confidence, it's taking on Apple and Samsung on their turf.

__PS:__ CEO Satya Nadella says this "[device](https://www.wired.com/story/microsoft-surface-duo-neo-phone/)" has two screens so you can be creative on one side, productive on the other (like a brain). 

Microsoft failed smartphones. So it invented a new Smartphone-ish foldable device.

__We know. Guac is extra...__ But __[Chipotle's](https://robinhood.com/stocks/cmg)__ too busy scaling its [newest](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/17/chipotle-to-add-carne-asada-to-its-menus-for-a-limited-time.html) limited time menu item: carne asada (grilled beef showered in lime juice love and cilantro). It's the 1st newly-tested option since 2018's chorizo, and it arrived just before another surprise change at Chipotle.

__The Fast Food Breakfast Wars...__ Chipotle is surviving *by not fighting in it*. __Dunkin's__ got breakfast bowls, __McDonald's__ does breakfast-only donut sticks, and __Starbucks__ offers egg-white sammies. Breakfast is the new battleground because it's a daily habit that fast food hasn't satiated yet. Chipotle don't care:

- New-ish CEO Brian Niccol dropped this last week: “*We’re __not going to be doing breakfast__ anytime soon.*”
- Instead, Chipotle's focusing on the opposite of breakfast. __Dinner__. Carne asada, paired with its new drive-thru Chipotlanes and delivery, works nicely with that.

"_I saw you at Chipotle trying the carne asada, Steve_"

Chew

__This carne asada is a powerful executive statement...__ Chipotle's old CEO was opposed to new menu items — especially "limited time offers" that could disappoint diners once they get 86'd. But Brian has a different interpretation:

- __"Menu Fatigue."__ He thinks a lack of new proteins lost customers who can only barbacoa so many times.
- Chipotle's __stock has nearly doubled__ since last year as it tests out new flavors (queso, chorizo) and a loyalty program that hooks you after you try them.

Chipotle's newest menu item is actually a major strategy shift

__First rule of World Trade Organization...__ feel free to talk about World Trade Organization. The WTO is actually a 164-nation club of countries down to trade with each other in economic harmony. Here's what the WTO does for its members after they pay club dues: 

- __Set the rules:__ How should the buyers and sellers of stuff behave? Who pays for what? What taxes and fees are fair?
- __Resolve conflicts:__ If two countries aren't on speaking terms because of a trade snafu, the WTO decides who was right/wrong. Apologies ensue.
- __Ensure peace:__ Countries that trade with each other are less-likely to go to war with each other — that's the underlying purpose of the entire institution.

__The WTO just decided that the US is right...__ Europe has been busy subsidizing __[Airbus](https://robinhood.com/stocks/EADSY)__, the continent's big airplane maker. Since that's not fair to America's __[Boeing](https://robinhood.com/stocks/BA)__, the WTO OK'd the US to toss $7.5B worth of tariffs on European-made Airbus planes. __[Delta](https://robinhood.com/stocks/DAL)__, __[American](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AAL)__, and __[Alaska](https://robinhood.com/stocks/ALK)__ shares all fell because they'll pay big taxes when they next buy Airbus jets.

The World Trade Organization just stepped in

Arbitrate

__This is how trade disputes are supposed to be handled...__ Only problem: it took 15 years for the WTO to reach this decision ([literally](https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/dispu_e/cases_e/ds316_e.htm#bkmk316arb)). The US immediately responded by throwing taxes on goods we import from the European Union, like jets, cheese, and Irish Scotch. Expect Europe to retaliate, as trade increasingly becomes a zero-sum game soaked in politics, not economics.

After the WTO's big decision, America slapped tariffs on European airplanes and cheese

_Happy Mean Girls Day. Markets aren't celebrating._

Microsoft invents a new thing: "Phonebook"

__If you land a fakie-to-fakie 720 and no one sees it...__ did it even happen? That's why __[GoPro](https://robinhood.com/stocks/gpro)__ exists. The action camera icon just [unveiled](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/01/gopro-hero8-black-and-hero-max-price-release-date.html) 2 new models: $399 for the uncreatively named HERO8 Black and $499 for the HERO Max. Just in time for the holidays, the only gift GoPro shareholders want is a charming return to profitability.

- Sales are __down 35%__ from 4 years ago.
- The stock's __down 83%__ over that same period.

__GoPro’s problem: Mainstream > Extreme...__ The new iPhone boasts 3 cameras. Three. Apple's photographic game is more than enough for most mainstream buyers. That's pushed GoPro to focus on extreme customers who appreciate the 12 megapixels and hypersmooth stabilization of its new lenses. Too bad "extreme" is a much smaller market than "mainstream."

Filmed

__GoPro's got no moat...__ A "[moat](https://www.inc.com/linkedin/don-peppers/customers-can-business-moat-don-peppers.html)" is how a business guards itself long-term from competition (picture Tylenol's patents that protected its recipe for years). GoPro boasts some unique technology in its surf-proof, snowboard-capable cameras, but rivals like __Garmin__ and __Samsung__ have effectively (and legally) replicated them. For cheaper.

GoPro unveils 2 new cameras to end its 3-year profit draught

__Big summer blowout...__ Stock trading is 100% off. Online broker __[Charles Schwab](https://robinhood.com/stocks/schw)__ will [stop](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/01/charles-schwab-is-eliminating-online-commissions-for-trading-in-us-stocks-and-etfs.html) charging $4.95 on stock, options, and ETF trades starting Oct 7th. But the commission-free announcement dropped Chuck's shares 10% — and rival __[E-Trade](https://robinhood.com/stocks/ETFC)__ fell 14% and __[TD Ameritrade](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMTD)__ plummeted 26%. Here's the percentage of all their revenues that come from trade commissions:

- E-Trade = __16%__ 
- TD Ameritrade = __25%__
- Charles Schwab = __7%__ — Chuck's more __diversified__ in how it makes money, so killing a revenue source won't sting as badly.

__Back in the day...__ buying a stock meant yelling into phones and paying a fee that might cost you more than the stock itself. Chuck is betting that sacrificing short-term revenue (the $4.95 it makes today for each trade) will win customer love and make more money long-term. But here's our Snackable history of stock trading fees:

- __$49/trade:__ That was the [average trading commission](https://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2015/04/30/the-day-that-changed-wall-street-forever/) in 1975, when Chuck launched its discount brokerage.
- __$10/trade:__ The average commission dropped by 2015, triggered by __Robinhood's__ commission-free trading app, which launched in 2013 (full disclosure: *Robinhood Snacks... is owned by Robinhood*).

Discount

__This is now a price war...__ and price wars destroy profits. Once a large company starts slashing prices, it can become a price competition among rivals that ends at rock-bottom prices (customers love it. Competition is good.). E-Trade and TD Ameritrade shares fell Tuesday because now they're pressured to join the commission-free battle, too — everyone's profits get wounded in this war.

Charles Schwab slashes stock trading fees to $0. Then its shares fell 10%

__Cabinets don't get enough appreciation...__ Holding up Nana's china like a never-ending bench-press is hard. But that's Michigan-based __[Masco Corp's](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MAS)__ bread-and-butter — producing home furnishings under brands like __Hansgrohe__, __Delta__, and __Behr__. Now Masco's [selling](https://www.crainsdetroit.com/manufacturing/masco-sell-window-and-door-subsidiary-725-million) its window division for $725M. And that's critical to its grand recession-proofing plan. 

__Homes get built, repaired, and remodelled...__ Masco wants to focus on those last 2 and sell the first. Here's what's in and what's out of Masco's feng shui makeover:

- __What it's selling:__ The parts of homes that only happen during *new*-house construction, like windows, doors, and kitchen cabinets. 
- __What it's focusing on:__ The parts of homes that get repaired and remodelled over the years on *existing* houses, like paint, lighting fixtures, paint, showers, sinks, and more paint.

_"What do you mean cabinets don't matter, Meg?"_

Renovate

__"*But Masco's cyclical, and a recession could be coming*"...__ Execs at Masco hate hearing that, but it's kind of true. Masco *is* 'cyclical': business is good when the economy is good, bad when it's bad. During the '05-'11 housing downturn, fewer homes were built so Masco's profits dropped. Masco's sprucing up its business model in order to recession-proof itself — and shut up Wall Street critics.

The Midwest's home furnishing icon, Masco, tries recession-proofing itself

GoPro's Problem: Mainstream > Extreme

__50% lower price than Uber, 100% less driver...__ That's the service __Waymo__ wants to offer in the next few years. The self-driving car unit of __[Alphabet](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GOOG)__ leads the race to offer up futuristic, no small talk, tip-unnecessary transport of the future. But __Morgan Stanley__ just [downgraded](https://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose/news/2019/09/27/morgan-stanley-lowers-waymo-valuation.html) what the bank thinks Waymo is worth: From $175B to $105B.

__Discounted cash flow modeling...__ Young bankers learn to wield the valuation method like it's the Patronas charm. Morgan Stanley tossed Waymo's numbers into some spreadsheets to determine how much profit Alphabet will make the next couple decades. They decided Waymo's self-driving dreams could experience less revenue and more costs than previously thought for 2 reasons:

- __It's taking too long.__ Waymo missed targets to roll out a commercial robo-taxi service, currently still [testing](https://waymo.com/faq/) them out in Arizona (Waymo sticks its software into Chrysler minivans).
- __Humans are expensive.__ Waymo will have a backup human safety driver behind the wheel for a while before it's safe enough for those minivans to cruise *sans*-driver.

Downgrade

__Don't ever forget this: *Google is an ad company*...__ but it's moving to diversify. Google actually made 87% of its revenue last quarter by infiltrating your Google search, Youtube, Google Maps, and Gmail with online ads. Saving the world wasn't a revenue source. But it's got a breed of young businesses it hopes can become healthy profit puppies someday: 

- __Transport "Other Bets" (that's what Alphabet calls them):__ __Waymo__ for humans and __Wing__ to drone-deliver packages.
- __*Other* "Other Bets":__ __Google Fiber__ (internet/phone service) and __Verily__ (health data).

Alphabet's self-driving car company loses 40% of its value (but is still worth over $100B)

__1 bucket of popcorn, 1 large DP, and don't miss the previews...__ *CNBC* [reported](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/30/amazon-go-cashierless-tech-planned-for-airport-stores-movie-theaters.html) that __[Amazon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/amzn)__ is in talks with airport convenience stores (__CIBO Markets__), movie theaters (__Regal Theaters__), and stadiums to license its Amazon Go cashier-less tech. Scan your phone when you enter, take what you want, leave — your Prime account gets charged, you don't miss the touchdown. 

__Amazon is the master of customer adoption...__ This tech is freaky (we've tried it). Cameras and sensors are all up in your space (and humans aren't). But Amazon's rolling this out to customers thoughtfully and gradually, first to those most-likely to adopt:

1. __Early adopters:__ Amazon's got 16 of its own "Go" stores, visited by city-dwellers eager to brag to friends about the lack of lines.
2. __People in a rush:__ If your flight already started boarding, you'll love not waiting 10 minutes in line for a pack of gum. 
3. __Mainstream:__ Amazon could add thousands of "No-Go" stores (that's what we're calling non-Amazon stores using Amazon Go tech), making friends out of would-be retail competitors. *Amazon wants hundreds of these by 2020.*

_Practicing contact-less transactions at Amazon Go stores_

Retail

__Software is way more profitable than physical stuff...__ Amazon's ecommerce operation ships a massive 10B products per year. But its way-smaller Amazon Web Services is the profit puppy, making over 50% of company profits through cloud services. Two tech companies in today's Snacks are following similar strategies:

- __Driver brains:__ __Waymo__ is selling its self-driving software to carmakers (but not actually making cars itself).
- __Cashier brains:__ Amazon could sell human-less cashier and payment software to retailers (but not actually making stores itself).

Amazon's targeting airports, baseball stadiums, and movie theaters with cashier-less "Go" tech

__Bold name...__ __[Thor Industries](https://robinhood.com/stocks/tho)__ is more camping than glamping as the biggest RV-maker on Earth. It boasts a team of recreational vehicle brands that sound like desperate Eagle Scout nicknames: Bison, Jayco, Buccaneer, Keystone. Leading the fleet is Insta-worthy throwback Airstream. But here's the name that drove its overall sales up 23% last quarter: __Erwin Hymer__.
- Thor __splurged $2B__ on the German RV brand earlier this year.
- Now Hymer's helped Thor __push RV'ing__ across the pond deeper into Europe.

__Camping is the new ironic Millennial thing...__ We're teased for juice cleanses, but our generation powered RV sales to [record highs](https://www.forbes.com/sites/dalebuss/2017/12/29/rv-sales-boom-is-fueled-by-millennials-as-they-blast-past-visions-of-cousin-eddie/#6eae23f42e5e) in 2017 getting heavy traffic to National Parks. That snagged entrepreneur attention: __Outdoorsy__ ("Airbnb for your [RV](https://www.outdoorsy.com/)") and __Hipcamp__ (private campsite booking [site](https://techcrunch.com/2019/07/24/hipcamp/)) solved camp problems totally unrelated to toilet paper. But in 2017, US RV sales peaked and Thor stock is down 65% ever since.

Camp'd

__When US sales slow, look to emerging markets...__ That's what soda companies did, candy companies have done, and Thor is [now](https://www.wsj.com/articles/thor-industries-shares-rise-on-earnings-beat-11569872327) doing. Thor's new German RV-maker, Hymer, happens to have a joint venture with a Chinese RV company and pursues Southeast Asia. Now Thor can reach millions of middle class Chinese who are down-to-backpack as American ex-RVers return to their cities. Emerging markets = Emerging campers


RV legend Thor Industries surges 16% on international camping

Amazon's cashier-less tech arriving at Terminal 2, Gate B7

__Nice job avoiding the cliche "Amazon of (blank)"...__ __[Uber](https://robinhood.com/stocks/UBER)__ announced changes to its app on Thursday — it's all designed to make the mobility company the "[operating system](https://www.theverge.com/2019/9/26/20884800/uber-app-announcement-ubereats-safety-transit-updates) for your everyday life." Sound fancy. Here's what you'll see when you open the new app:

- __Food and rides now get equal treatment:__ Right away you have to select "Get a ride" or "Order food." Less thinking. The Uber Eats bachelor era as an independent app is over.
- __Safety. Safety. Safety:__ Uber's adding features to help you and your driver verify it's really Jesse behind the wheel. It'll also let you report problems mid-ride, not just after.
- __2 wheels, 4 wheels, 8 wheels:__ Continuing Uber's inclusive fairness, it's more clearly featuring scooters and bikes, and nudging you to take buses or subway when it makes sense. San Francisco, Mexico City, and Paris get a new transit feature.

__1-Star. From everyone...__ Uber's facing hate from Wall Street, regulators, and politicians. So it's also making some friendly non-design moves, like adding allergy-friendly filters to food delivery in case the gluten in that pad thai will ruin your night. It's also helping drivers honestly estimate how much money they'll make because knowing that's kinda important.

_Engineering eye for the app guy_

Makeover

__Silicon Valley needs a win...__ Uber's stock price is down to $30, way below the $45 it IPO'd at (which was already underwhelming). Many of its 2019 tech IPO classmates are also unprofitable and also down:

- __[SmileDirectClub](https://robinhood.com/stocks/sdc)__, __[Lyft](https://robinhood.com/stocks/lyft)__, __[Slack](https://robinhood.com/stocks/work)__ — all dropped since their IPOs
- Even __[Peloton](https://robinhood.com/stocks/pton)__ fell 12% in its 1st 2 days on public markets (listen to our 15-minute IPO-day [interview](https://open.spotify.com/episode/3qVIUsSH2NPNo1cvdUr7HK?si=aJE92rp7TSCRD3106vJx8A) with the COO of Peloton here).
- __WeWork__ and talent agency __Endeavor__ have both postponed/canceled their IPOs.
- Uber's the valedictorian of this class, hoping to lead by example. 


Uber unveils an app merge/facelift at a crucial moment

__You workout?...__ __[Nike](https://robinhood.com/stocks/nke)__ shares hit an all-time high after a cinderella story earnings report with a come-from-behind story: Nike is [beating](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/25/nike-to-hit-all-time-high-after-the-companys-earnings-crushed-it.html) the trade war. A quarter of Nike goods are made in China and a sixth of them are sold there. Even though its biz was tossed in the middle of the trade war, its overall profit surged 25% last quarter. Buckets.

__Amazon pulled an Oprah...__ dishing out new gear at its Apple-ish new product event. The theme was sticking Alexa voice-activation everywhere so that you're always __[Amazon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/amzn)__-connected. Echo Studio ($200 smart speakers), in-car Alexa (with Samuel L. Jackson voice option) via __[General Motors](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GM)__, Echo Buds (AirPods knockoffs), Echo Frames (smart glasses), Echo Loop (smart *ring*). Check out [this](https://slate.com/technology/2019/09/amazon-echo-products-frames-ring-creepiness.html) "ranking by creepiness."

Highs

Who's up...

__The Cuba Treatment...__ According to [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-27/white-house-weighs-limits-on-u-s-portfolio-flows-into-china-k12ahk4g), President Trump wants to dish it out to Chinese stocks: The idea is to limit Chinese companies from listing their shares on US stock markets. That would basically cut off American $$$ from Chinese firms. It's why investors sold off __[Alibaba](https://robinhood.com/stocks/BABA)__ (the Amazon of China), __[Luckin Coffee](https://robinhood.com/stocks/LK)__ (Starbucks of China), and __[Baidu](https://robinhood.com/stocks/BIDU)__ (Google of China), and __[Tencent](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TCEHY)__ (everything-tech-ish of China) before the weekend.

__Update the LinkedIn profiles...__ 3 major business chiefs ducked out last week. 

- __WeWork's__ Adam Neumann was replaced by co-CEOs after a *WSJ* [report](https://www.wsj.com/articles/this-is-not-the-way-everybody-behaves-how-adam-neumanns-over-the-top-style-built-wework-11568823827) that he smoked weed on private planes and wanted to live forever (didn't help the IPO plans). 
- __Juul's__ CEO Kevin Burns quit cold turkey as concerns about teen vaping and vaping-related deaths led more states to consider/implement e-cigarette restrictions. 
- __[eBay](https://robinhood.com/stocks/ebay)__ CEO Devin Wenig departed since he and the board aren't on the same page about how to make money off the website you don't use anymore.

Lows

...and who's down

Uber's everything-app makeover

__Ever get false advertising vibes?...__ Or think those spend-the-rest-of-our-lives-together messages were from fake people? The __FTC__ might be down to take your case. This week, the FTC announced a lawsuit against __[Match Group](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MTCH)__, the owner of __Tinder__, for [misleading](https://www.vox.com/the-goods/2019/9/26/20885665/ftc-sues-match-group) millions of potential daters with faux-mance.

__Here's how the scheme went down...__ Match teased singles with fake messages from fake people in order to get them to join Match.com for real. 

- __A pop-up ad__ starts winking at you with the message "*He just emailed you! Could he be the one?*" Then there's a picture of a guy with perfect facial structure.
- __You click the ad__ to find love, and end up creating an account. In your messages tab, the handsome dude's account is "unavailable".
- Turns out that hunk is just a picture and __the account doesn't exist__. But you've already started paying. 
- From 2016-2018, the FTC calculated that __499,691 singles purchased Match.com subscriptions__ within 1 day of seeing the untrue ad. 

Heartbreak

__Fake ads aren't cool, and this is a bad look...__ We feel bad for the duped victims, despite their deficient fakeness radars. Match stock fell 7% on Wednesday on this news. Rivals Bumble and Facebook Dating could win some hearts.

Match Group gets sued for misleading hopeful daters with fake likes

__They're supposed to be celebratory...__ IPOs feel like graduation or getting your Instagram account verified. But 2019 — *the year of the tech IPO* — has been the opposite. Talent agency __Endeavor__ just [canceled](https://www.wsj.com/articles/peloton-interactive-shares-open-lower-than-ipo-price-11569516345) its IPO less than 24 hours before it was supposed to happen. This is the entertainment company that repped Denzel and owns half of Ultimate Fighting Championship.

__There are fewer rainbows out there for unicorns lately...__ That's why Endeavor dipped out. The share price that a company IPOs at matters to its existing investors — they own stock in the private company and want to eventually sell once it becomces public. Here's what's happened to stocks lately once they IPO:

- __[Uber](https://robinhood.com/stocks/UBER)__ & __[Lyft](https://robinhood.com/stocks/LYFT)__ are down 31% and 43% as investors wonder if they'll ever become profitable. 
- __[SmileDirectClub](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SDC)__ and __[Slack](https://robinhood.com/stocks/WORK)__ both had painful starts, down 36% and 42%.
- __[Peloton](https://robinhood.com/stocks/PTON)__ is only 1 day in but already sweating.
- __WeWork__ is a whole different category — Its valuation was $47B the last time it raised money from private investors, and could be re-priced *down* to a $15B valuation (or less) when/if it IPOs. 

_How tech companies trying to IPO feel lately_

Nixed

__Private markets were hype, public markets are reality...__ In 2017, __[SoftBank](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SFTBY)__ scrapped together $100B from insanely wealthy people, companies, and countries to invest huge sums in startups. The venture capital firm gave Uber, WeWork, and Slack gigantic checks to fund their growth, also driving their valuations up. But Wall Street's been more skeptical, slashing those valuations by hammering their stock prices. Now unicorns might wait to IPO until their chests grow profit hairs.

Endeavor cancels its IPO the night before it was supposed to happen

__Take a recovery day...__ __[Peloton](https://robinhood.com/stocks/pton)__ shares fell 11% after they began trading on IPO day. The interactive fitness platform likes to "[sell](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1639825/000119312519230923/d738839ds1.htm) happiness" — but it mainly streams spin classes to 1.4M able-bodied humans averaging 12 rides/month. That large engaged audience attracts top spin instructors who bump Rihanna to get you up the hill in 3rd position. Here's how it makes money:

- __Hardware:__ $2,245 spin bikes with screens.
- __More hardware:__ A newer $4,295 treadmill they call Tread.
- __Software:__ You drop $39/month to subscribe to all those hill-climb classes and accompanying playlists.

__"We're 6 or 7 companies in one"...__ CEO John Foley's [words](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/26/peloton-ipo-valued-between-consumer-hardware-and-platform-companies.html), not ours. Peloton stretches itself out to include multiple industries, and it's proud of that. But business model hybridization makes it harder for investors to understand what they're buying:

- Is it a __media__ company like Netflix? It's got original video content.
- Is it a __hardware__ company like Apple? It's got fancy devices.
- Is it a __tech__ company like Spotify? It streams music.
- Or is it a __fitness__ company like Planet Fitness?
- Peloton's IPO filing document (its [S-1](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1639825/000119312519230923/d738839ds1.htm)) brags it's all of them* — plus __apparel__, __logistics__, __retail__, and __design__.*



Spun

__So was the Peloton IPO a success?...__ Yes for the company, no for investors who bought shares yesterday. Even though the stock price dropped, IPOs aren't only about the trading of new shares. They're used to raise a new round of funding for the company — and Peloton pocketed over $1B from the new shares it issued, more than it first expected. (Listen to our [pod](https://open.spotify.com/show/5RllMBgvDnTau8nnsCUdse) for a lot more).

Peloton carbo-loaded, IPO'd, and then fell 11%

Peloton — the first franken-company IPO

__We were happy with air hockey...__ __[Facebook](https://robinhood.com/stocks/fb)__ prefers virtual worlds. It just unveiled one through Oculus, the virtual reality startup it acquired in 2014 for $2B. Facebook offered up [this](https://youtu.be/Is8eXZco46Q) charming video to entice you to enter the digital land of "Horizon" — a massive-multiplayer world to interact with anyone who can afford the $399 VR headset.

__Picture *Ready Player One* without the violence...__ Your avatar (the digital version of you, like a 3D-ish emoji) [enters](https://techcrunch.com/2019/09/25/facebook-horizon/) Horizon around a central town square. Then you customize your virtual shirt, or build a virtual island to hang out on with your other real friends playing virtually. Meta. Here's what else surprised us:

- __No coding:__ Don't need the skill set. Use your hands and building blocks to whip up an arena where you can play virtual soccer with real friends.
- __No pants:__ For some reason, none of the avatars in Horizon have lower bodies.
- __Yes, privacy/policing/enforcement:__ Facebook clearly focused on this one. You can mute people who bother you and create space boundaries. Plus, there are __"Horizon Locals"__ — Avatar guides who are real people, dressed casually, cracking down on trolls.

_Just looking for a size M at virtual J. Crew_

__Welcome to Facebook 2.0...__ Facebook acquired Instagram on the bet that users may head there when they were bored of the 'Book. They did. Now it's betting you'll hit up virtual reality when you're tired of reality. Here's the big question: Will Zuck introduce virtual billboards and stores to Horizon so it makes real ad money just like Facebook does?

Facebook unveils "Horizon": A huge virtual world

__So. Many. Connected. Gadgets...__ Another Alexa-palooza arrived yesterday from __[Amazon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMZN)__ HQ in Seattle. Bezos & Co. whipped up [15](https://www.theverge.com/2019/9/25/20881736/amazon-event-news-products-announcements-updates-highlights-alexa-echo) Alexa-fluent devices. Some totally new, some just improved:

- __Echo Studio:__ A $199 smart speaker, challenging __[Apple](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AAPL)__ HomePod and __[Sonos](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SONO)__ (the speaker icon's stock fell 5%).
- __Amazon Sidewalk:__ Basically extends your wifi signal 1-mile for low connectivity devices, like a dog tag (aka "Echo Fetch").
- __New voices:__ Samuel L. Jackson is voicing over Alexa, with more celebs to fill the airwaves (each costs [$0.99](https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-49829391)). 

__Apple & Google have 1 advantage in the voice assistant wars...__ *Smartphones* — you've probably got Siri (iPhone) or Google Assistant (Android) in your pocket. Now you can take Alexa to-go:

- __In the car:__ __[GM](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GM)__ [announced](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/25/gm-amazon-partner-to-install-alexa-voice-assistant-in-cars.html) all models will support an Alexa app.
- __In your ears:__ Echo Buds — The AirPod knockoffs are cheaper ($129), but don't look as sharp.
- __On your face and on your finger:__ Echo Frames and Echo Loop let you ask Alexa questions and listen for her responses through glasses and a finger ring (these last two are so new they're available *by invitation only*).

Unveil

__Alexa's goal = make you 1% more Amazon...__ These devices might not make Amazon money at first. Long-term, Amazon's putting Alexa everywhere so you're that much more likely to be loyal to Amazon or even order through Alexa via voice (aka "v-commerce"). If the percent of your paycheck going to Amazon rises from 20% to 21% because of Alexa, that's a win.

Amazon challenges rivals with Alexa-infused everything (and a 1-mile-radius tech cloud)

Samuel L. Jackson + Alexa + a Ring + Glasses

__There's no "We" in Adam...__ Since __WeWork__ filed to IPO last month, it's become a Wall Street punchline: Its S-1 IPO filing paperwork was super cagey ("*Our mission is to elevate the world's consciousness*") and its new name ("We Company") led to some pronoun jokes. On Wednesday, co-founder/CEO Adam Neumann [demoted himself](https://www.wework.com/newsroom/posts/weworks-board-of-directors-announces-leadership-changes) to eliminate the distraction he'd become:

- __Title:__ He's out as CEO — that'll be replaced with "Non-Executive Chairman of the Board" on his LinkedIn (2 other execs will take over as co-CEOs).
- __Power:__ Neumann had engineered himself majority voting power — each of his shares got 20 votes on corporate decisions. *20*. He downgraded that to 3 votes per share.

__Tell us about a time when you...__ did something reckless. Adam can. Just last week, the *Wall Street Journal* profiled his brilliance and craziness. That got investors even nervous-er about investing in Adam's hugely unprofitable co-working real estate company. Here are the low-light highlights:

- Adam had goals to __never die__, to become Earth's 1st __trillionaire__, and to be elected __president of the world__ (more [here](https://www.wsj.com/articles/this-is-not-the-way-everybody-behaves-how-adam-neumanns-over-the-top-style-built-wework-11568823827?mod=article_inline&mod=article_inline)).
- He __stashed weed__ in a private jet he took to Israel, complicating the flight home.
- In 2016, he fired 7% of WeWork — then he passed around __top-shelf tequila shots__ and __hired Run DMC__ to play [*It's Tricky*](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l-O5IHVhWj0).
- And __Softbank__, the top Venture Capital firm invested in WeWork, wanted him to be "__even crazier.__"

_CEO Adam Neumann relishing his last day on the WeJob_

WeOut

__Ousting Uber CEO Travis Kalanick didn't solve all of Uber's problems...__ and this won't solve all of WeWork's. The IPO was already delayed because of concerns about Adam's conflicts of interest (he trademarked the name "We" and then personally sold it to WeWork to use for $6M). Now the Adam liability is gone, but these problems aren't:

- WeWork just __lost the visionary leader__ who built it from nothing to a real estate beast.
- __Its underlying business still lost $1.6B last year__, and it's [reportedly](https://news.crunchbase.com/news/wework-ceo-steps-down-as-company-reportedly-considers-layoffs/) considering firing 1/3 of its employees to reassure investors.

WeWork CEO Adam Neumann steps down to save the IPO

__Keep moving. Nothing to see here...__ __[Nio](https://robinhood.com/stocks/nio)__ would like you to continue doing whatever you're doing (and not talk about Nio). That's why the Shanghai-based electric car company revealed its quarterly earnings and then abruptly [canceled](https://www.theverge.com/2019/9/24/20881882/nio-q2-loss-layoffs-financial-trouble-restructuring-spinoff) the call to discuss them with investors — that's when shares dropped 22%. Nio's had a rough few months:

- Sales of its core product — __the [ES8](https://www.nio.com/es8)  electric SUV__ — plummeted by 22%.
- It's losing __$5M a day__. Let that sink in.
- Back in June it awkwardly had to borrow $200M...from its Chairman, CEO, and buddy company __Tencent__.
- Now it's focused on a new mission: “*Pursue a leaner operation.*”

__One problem...__ It was already pursuing a leaner operation before this. Here's how Nio was struggling already in the months *before* things got worse. Earlier this year, Nio had to:

- __Fire__ 2K workers and cancel plans for a new factory.
- __Close__ its Patagonia-enveloped Silicon Valley office.
- __Sell off__ its Formula E ("electric") racing team.
- __Spend__ a whopping $49M to recall cars because of fire issues (and its co-founder just retired).

Unplugged

__Bubbles can happen anywhere...__ Like in China's electric car market. Half the world's e-vehicle sales are in China — but that demand is supported by subsidies (the government hands out money to make buying cleaner cars cheaper). Now China's [phasing](https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Companies/China-s-Tesla-NIO-slashes-thousands-of-jobs-as-losses-mount) out those subsides, eliminating them by 2020. The result: Nio's sales have fallen 2-straight quarters.

Nio — "the Tesla of China" — plummets 22% after canceling its earning call

WeWork gets rid of MeWork

__"People familiar with the matter"...__ They're usually important. On Friday they said __[Fitbit](https://robinhood.com/stocks/FIT)__ hired an investment bank to help [find](https://www.engadget.com/2019/09/22/fitbit-in-talks-to-explore-selloff/) a buyer. Investors didn't care about the lack of official-ness to the headline, and snatched up stock on hopes they'd benefit from an acquisition (companies tend to buy other ones for an amount higher than the current share price). 

__368 calories burned, 982 steps taken...__ and a 12% stock price jump. That was Friday, but Fitbit has fallen 90% since 2015. Back when Fitbit and __Jawbone__ were in their prime leading the wearable devices game, things were different. Now Fitbit is squeezed on both sides:

- __From above:__ __Apple__ Watch debuted in 2015, winning sales from high-income humans who track heart rates and want to be even closer to their zzz zzz zzz iMessage notifications. Even Samsung has a fancy smartwatch now for non-iPeople. 
- __From below:__ Don't need a retina touch screen on your wrist? Low-cost fitness trackers from __Huawei__ and __Xiaomi__ are undercutting Fitbit's "Inspire" trackers on price.

Mergin'

__Where are the synergies?...__ Fitbit lost money each year since it pivoted to smartwatches to compete with Apple. For another company to acquire Fitbit, it must use Fitbit's hardware, software, and people to make money better than Fitbit did (aka find "positive synergies"). Tying Fitbit more closely to __[Google's](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GOOG)__ Android operating system could do that. Or plant fitness-tracking chips into __[Nike](https://robinhood.com/stocks/NKE)__ shoes? We're idea people. 

Fitbit is for sale — the whole company

__Macs are bigger in Texas...__ __[Apple](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AAPL)__ will not move Mac Pro desktop production to China, like it had reportedly been planning to. It's another "supporting America" move that Apple's PR team loved [announcing](https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2019/09/apples-new-mac-pro-to-be-made-in-texas/). But this one has a scent of trade war diplomacy that investors were into — Apple stock rose almost a half percent on the decision.

__Keep Austin weird and wired...__ Your Mac Pro smell like brisket? It's one of the few Apple products not assembled in China — it's made in Austin, TX since 2013. But this past summer, that almost changed:

- President Trump's new tariffs made Chinese parts used in the Mac Pro __more expensive__ to import to the Texas assembly line. 
- So Apple was [reportedly](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/apple-moving-production-of-mac-pro-computer-to-china/) __thinking of moving__ the whole production out of Texas to China — the opposite of what Trump wanted. 
- Then last week, the Trump Admin __[exempted](https://www.politico.com/story/2019/09/23/apple-mac-pro-trump-tariff-1508247) 10 Apple parts__ that would've been hit with tariffs — so Apple agreed to stay after all. 

Negotiate

__The transactional states of America...__ The new tariffs would've cost Apple $$$ (American companies that buy Chinese stuff pay for tariffs, and often try to pass that on to you and us by raising prices). Instead, Apple essentially threatened to move jobs outside the US. Then it got the tariffs waived by the Administration. This is the nature in which companies and countries handle relations with President Trump, and vice versa.

Apple decides to keep Mac Pro production in the US

__Disowning is the new black...__ Legendary department store __Bloomingdale's__ jumped into clothing rental this week. Confusingly-named "My List at Bloomindale's" costs $149/month for 10 items you use, minorly-abuse, then return. Rental-ware is just 1% of the apparel market, but it [surged](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-retail-renting-focus/garments-for-lease-rental-apparel-brings-new-wrinkles-for-retail-stores-idUSKBN1W31CA) 24% last year, while fashion overall grew 5%. Here's who recently got in:

- __The original look = Rent The Runway:__ The decade-old rental pioneer is now a unicorn, boasting 25 drop-off points (19 of them in WeWorks) and a new club in San Francisco to meet fellow dress-renters.
- __The moocher look = [Levi's](https://robinhood.com/stocks/LEVI):__ Denim's finest doesn't have its own rental service — but it partnered with Rent The Runway on a revenue share deal to offer up its skinny jeans on their platform.
- __The newbie look = Nuuly:__ It's the rental brand of __[Urban Outfitters](https://robinhood.com/stocks/URBN)__ that just launched this summer to take on all the others.


__"Clothing as a Service"...__ *CaaS*. It's now a thing. The startup __CaaStle__ has it in its name. Clothing rental is almost entirely logistics — shipping is its greatest cost. So CaaStle's software and warehouses handle all that for clients like retail chain __Express__. And solving that logistics challenge could make it the greatest threat to Bloomingdale's and Rent The Runway yet.

"_No touch-ey. I no own-ey_"

Re-use

__Clothing Rental is one big bet...__ and we’re all waiting on the answer. Both fashion brands and retail chains are experimenting with clothing rental programs because the industry could go in 1 of 2 directions:

1. __Cannibalization:__ Shoppers could stop *buying* clothes and just rent instead, potentially hurting sales.
2. __Boosting:__ Shoppers could start *testing* clothes before they buy, thereby helping sales.

Bloomingdale's joins the rental clothing club

Apple keeps Austin wired

__Aisle 6 is going cold turkey...__ __[Walmart](https://robinhood.com/stocks/wmt)__ officially [shut down](https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/20/business/walmart-e-cigarettes-vaping/index.html) e-cigarette sales just before the weekend as 8 people have died in [connection](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/statement-federal-and-state-collaboration-investigate-respiratory-illnesses-reported-after-use-e) with using them. The situation for vaping pioneers like __Juul__ has gone from bad to badder to worst since the FDA declared teen vaping an "epidemic" in 2018 — Here's how things accelerated in just the last 3 months:

- __June 25th:__ San Francisco bans e-cigarettes, saying they get teens hooked to nicotine.
- __September 4th:__ Michigan becomes the 1st state to ban flavored e-cigarettes because the sound more like Starbursts.
- __September 11th:__ President Trump [says](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/trump-administration-combating-epidemic-youth-e-cigarette-use-plan-clear-market-unauthorized-non) he plans to ban flavored e-cigs.
- __September 18th:__ China removes Juul vaping products from online stores just days after they launched across the Great Wall.
- __September 19th:__ India kicks China's moves up a notch and bans all e-cigs.
- __September 20th:__ Walmart makes its moves.

__When a unicorn falls, the rider goes down with it...__ Juul charged vaporized tobacco into the mainstream with its iPod-looking devices, reaching a $38B private valuation late last year. But publicly traded __[Altria](https://robinhood.com/stocks/mo)__ is the old school Marlboro-owning cigarette-maker that [splurged](https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/20/altria-takes-stake-in-juul-a-pivotal-moment-for-the-e-cigarette-maker.html#targetText=Tobacco%20giant%20Altria%20takes%2035,cigarette%20company%20at%20%2438%20billion&targetText=Altria%20has%20taken%20a%2035,of%20the%20e%2Dcigarette%20market.) $12.5B for 35% of Juul's private shares. We don't know exactly what's happened to Juul's stock (since it's private), but Altria's is down 35% since vape-lash began.

"_Glad we didn't launch that e-cigar startup_"

Smoked

__Mission statements can be completely wrong...__ "*Improve the lives of the world's one billion adult smokers by eliminating cigarettes.*" That's Juul's mission statement (they write it in all-caps), which could be completely wrong in 2 big ways: 

1. Underage kids are Juuling, too (1 in 5 US high schoolers [vape](https://www.apnews.com/681b934cc43147ed8026dd8fdb1dae56)).
2. It's not totally clear vaping is healthier than smoking.

Walmart bans e-cigarettes, unofficially marking them mainstream "canceled" 

__Because dating wasn't already stressful...__ __Tinder__-owner __[Match](https://robinhood.com/stocks/mtch)__ wants to make it apocalyptic. To give you a reason to ditch __Bumble__ and to boost  engagement from people already swiping-right, Tinder [launched](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/20/style/tinder-swipenight-scripted-show.html) "Swipe Night": *a make-your-own-adventure interactive show*. The 4-episode mini-series starts 10/6 within the Tinder app, and each episode expires after 6 hours. Your decisions determine your love destiny.

__Zuck's coming over...__ __[Facebook](https://robinhood.com/stocks/fb)__ unleashed a $149 Portal TV — a streaming device that doesn't include the Netflix app. Portal TV is all about a camera that tracks your movements for "[Watch Together](https://techcrunch.com/2019/09/18/facebook-portal-tv/)": Enjoy streaming that Facebook Watch show while your remote friends watch simultaneously on your screen. Privacy? A little dongle you slide to block the camera.

__When you need emergency Nyquil ASAP...__ __[Google](https://robinhood.com/stocks/goog)__ hears ya. So its drone company, __Wing__, just partnered up with __[Walgreens](https://robinhood.com/stocks/wba)__ and a couple other brands for a 1st-of-its-kind delivery option. The team will [start](https://www.theverge.com/2019/9/19/20874316/wing-drone-delivery-fedex-walgreens-virginia) drone delivering pills, prescriptions, and whatever's on the shelf in Virginia starting next month. Over 75% of Americans live within 5 miles of a Walgreens, and the Department of Transportation has green-lighted this pilot.

__Worst day in a decade...__ __[FedEx](https://robinhood.com/stocks/fdx)__ plummeted 13% one day last week after cutting its profit expectations for next year. But FedEx isn't just FedEx. Watching its global shipping network gives helpful [insights](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/19/fedex-has-shed-13percent-this-week-and-traders-see-more-pain-ahead.html) on how the world's economy is doing (it's a "leading indicator"). That single earnings report was enough to worry investors.

__The huge cardboard box...__ within a box within another bubble-wrapped box? Not sustainable. Since __[Amazon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/amzn)__ delivers 10B packages per year, CEO Jeff Bezos pledged to be 100% renewable by 2030 and carbon neutral by 2040 — a decade before Paris Climate Accord targets. Employees still [walked out](https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/20/tech/amazon-climate-strike-global-tech/index.html) Friday to pressure Amazon to reduce its absurd carbon footprint. To start, it [ordered](https://www.clickondetroit.com/automotive/amazon-orders-100-000-electric-vans-from-plymouth-auto-company-rivian) 100K __Rivian__ electric delivery vans (Amazon's a Rivian investor).
