__While the peanuts get staler and seats get smaller...__ the profits are growing. US airlines are about to post their 10th straight year of [profits](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/26/airline-labor-unions-for-pilots-flight-attendants-want-raises-in-2020.html) — that's their longest streak in over 40 years. Here's why it's shocking:

- __80%:__ The [percentage](https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/02/how-airline-ticket-prices-fell-50-in-30-years-and-why-nobody-noticed/273506/) of Americans who'd never flown on a plane in 1965 (air travel used to be a mega-luxury — now it's sweatpants).
- __1978:__ The year the Airline Deregulation Act passed. Before it, the government basically *guaranteed* airline profitability by limiting competition and keeping ticket prices high.
- __50%:__ The amount flight prices have fallen since Uncle Sam unleashed competition in the skies. Air travel is way cheaper now as low-priced carriers took off. 
- __$59B:__ The massive [losses](https://www.nber.org/digest/jul11/w16744.html) of the US airline industry from 1979-2009.

__Experiencing turbulence...__  In 1974, an airline couldn't charge *less* than  [$1,442](https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/02/how-airline-ticket-prices-fell-50-in-30-years-and-why-nobody-noticed/273506/) for a NYC-LA flight. After deregulation, airlines struggled as cheaper *absolutely-no-meal-included* flights went mainstream. Then this happened:

- __The Mega-bankruptcies:__ The jumbo OGs (__[American](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AAL)__, __[United](https://robinhood.com/stocks/ual)__ and __[Delta](https://robinhood.com/stocks/DAL)__) went bankrupt.
- __The Mega-mergers:__ When they emerged from bankruptcy, they started merging (remember Delta + Northwest?) — that left 4 airlines in control of a whopping [77%](https://www.bts.dot.gov/newsroom/2018-traffic-data-us-airlines-and-foreign-airlines-us-flights) of today's flying market.

_When they tell you you're not getting a raise despite 10 straight years of profit_

__Maintaining cruising altitude will be hard...__ It's not just less competition and a rising economy — airlines profited the last 10 years by cramping seats, charging your luggage, and barely paying crews more. But flight attendants read this Snacks too and want a piece of airline profits. Next year, airlines are set to negotiate with over 120K unionized airline employees (and their salaries are already airlines' biggest expense).

US airlines have a surprise for you: A decade-long profitability streak

__Here's what $15B gets you...__ *A trophy you give to yourself*. __[Netflix](https://robinhood.com/stocks/nflx)__ splurged all those billions of investors' cash on 2019's original content — movies/shows produced by Netflix, sprinkled with Jennifer Aniston and *Stranger Things*. Now Netflix is [boasting](https://www.wsj.com/articles/netflix-says-its-own-content-topped-all-2019-releases-on-its-service-11577721600?mod=hp_lista_pos2) that its releases this year were more watched than any other studio on the platform.

- __#1:__ Adam Sandler and Jen's *Murder Mystery* won the charts.
- __American Top 10:__ All of the 10 most popular new content were Netflix creations, except one: Disney's *Incredibles 2*.
- __International flavors:__ Netflix's  *The Naked Director* led Japan's ranking, while its police drama *Sacred Games* dominated India's.

__Cue the asterisks...__ (we noticed plenty of them).

1. __Those rankings don't include older content__, like reruns of *The Office* and *Friends* that dominate your binging habits.
2. Neflix __didn't provide actual viewer numbers__ to go along with those rankings.
3. You didn't have to watch the whole thing — __just 2 minutes of streaming__ qualified you as a "viewer." Because, you know, short attention sp-

"_Look at all this Netflix stuff_"

Stream

__Netflix's next decade *depends on original content*...__ Disney is yanking its magical content from Netflix to sprinkle on Disney+. And top-streamed shows *Friends* and *The Office* leave Netflix in 2020 and 2021 for __HBO Max__ and NBC's __Peacock__ (it's rerun-pocalypse). But of all the new releases hitting Netflix chillers' eyeballs, Netflix's homegrown talent is getting the most clicks.

Netflix's 2019 original content brag (*asterisks included)

Dow Jones

S&P 500

Nasdaq

Bitcoin

10-Yr US Treasury

Surprise profit master of the decade: Airlines

__Tesla's New Year's Resolution...__ is fit for a black belt, Jedi Master, and Head Boy/Girl at Hogwarts. Elon Musk's electric car company always sets insane goals, but 2020 looks particularly crazy for __[Tesla](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TSLA)__: 

1. [Scale](https://www.engadget.com/2019/12/27/tesla-deliver-chinese-model-3-dec-30/) production at the new Shanghai Gigafactory.
2. [Deliver](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a29601183/tesla-model-y-release-date/) the first Model Y crossover SUVs (it's been on pre-order since March). 
3. [Succeed](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2019) in China (Earth's biggest electric car market), despite America's ongoing trade war.
4. [Build](https://techcrunch.com/2019/12/21/tesla-nears-land-deal-for-german-gigafactory-outside-of-berlin/) a 4th Gigafactory near Berlin.

__Tesla stock is at an all-time high...__ thanks to a surprise [profit](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/SJDB7f3KgYx0kks23Wmgl/articles/7BjUxnugG5FdZV7D9gReun/) last quarter (despite broken [window-gate](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/22/tesla-smashes-bulletproof-pickup-trucks-windows-with-a-metal-ball.html)). But Tesla is polarizing, and the stock could quickly turn south if Tesla's win streak goes on the fritz. If shares fall 50% (that's happened before), then Tesla would be worth $39B. That's where __[Apple](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AAPL)__ comes in. Hear us out:

- __Apple has $206B in cash__ as of its last quarter.
- Creation of an Apple car __was rumored for decades__, but hasn't happened.
- With iPhone sales declining, __there's a perfect parking spot for the iCar__ on Apple's income statement.
- Plus, the 2 companies' __HQs are just 9 miles apart__ (ETA to conference room is 9 minutes).

_Apple's CEO Tim Cook is looking for an apprentice_

__What about Elon?...__ If Tesla got acquired by Apple, Elon Musk would probably need to let Apple's CEO take the wheel. But Elon's leadership has been critical — he published the [Secret Master Plan](https://www.tesla.com/blog/secret-tesla-motors-master-plan-just-between-you-and-me) in 2006 and [Part Deux](https://www.tesla.com/blog/master-plan-part-deux) in 2016. Apple would bring financial stability to Tesla, but possibly downshift Elon's revved up ambitions.

We wish Apple would acquire Tesla (if Tesla stumbles), bringing us the iCar

__You'll never have to hear *'Guac is extra'* again...__ __[Chipotle](https://robinhood.com/stocks/cmg)__ should become the 1st major US restaurant chain to eliminate tables and make every store offer pre-order pickup/delivery only. We could stuff a burrito and rip the tinfoil with reasons why:

- __Digital saved Chipotle:__ Its online sales for pickup and delivery nearly [doubled](https://www.wsj.com/articles/chipotles-sees-online-sales-boost-11571779136) last quarter.
- __Space costs $$$:__ Physical Chipotle restaurants are mostly empty during the mornings and 2pm-5pm when you're not barbacoa-hangry.
- __New guy:__ The new CEO came from Taco Bell with a taste for fresh ideas (carne asada was all him). We're betting things can get wilder.

__Convenience is taking over retail...__ In department stores, __Target's__ stock is at a record high largely thanks to curbside pickup. Walmart is [committed](https://www.businessinsider.com/retailers-grocery-delivery-around-the-world-2019-12#the-service-enables-shoppers-to-arrange-for-deliveries-to-arrive-within-a-specific-time-slot-according-to-a-press-release-from-bringg-2) to "delivery unlimited" subscriptions at 1,400 locations (and grocery curbisde pickup, too). Now we're noticing retail convenience spill onto food:

- Over __half of your 2020 restaurant spending__ is projected to be [*outside*](https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/08/all-food-will-be-delivered/595222/) the restaurant (aka delivery/pickup).
- Last year's $10.2B consumer [splurge](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/07/ubers-travis-kalanicks-bet-on-ghost-kitchens-ushers-in-venture-capital-interest.html) on 3rd party delivery apps __led to ghost kitchens__: *delivery-only restaurants — customers can't even see the place*.
- Starbucks is [testing](https://www.businessinsider.com/starbucks-pickup-only-store-review-2019-11) its __1st ever pickup-only store__.


"_You're telling me I don't need to wait tables anymore?"_

__Eliminating tables will be Chipotle’s differentiator...__ It's facing fresh fast-casual competition from __Sweetgreen__, __Cava__, and __Shake Shack__. Plus, fast food is upgrading (__McD's__ is dropping $6B to renovate its stores). Going table-free isn't just a profit move or PR stunt — it's how Chipotle can stand out in a saturated world of quick quality food options.

We wish Chipotle would eliminate restaurants and go pick-up/delivery only in 2020

__It's getting hot in here...__ So take off all your packaging. Billions of packages shipped each year means billions of tree-made cardboard boxes. Since __[Amazon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMZN)__ launched "[The Climate Pledge](https://press.aboutamazon.com/news-releases/news-release-details/amazon-co-founds-climate-pledge-setting-goal-meet-paris)," a goal to meet the Paris Climate Agreement 10 years early, we wish it would offer naked shipping.

__Think outside the box...__ To get net zero carbon by 2040, Amazon needs to spend money. It's ordered 100K electric delivery vans and is investing $100M in planting trees. Amazon already offers Prime shipping, "Now" 2-hour shipping, and "No-rush" shipping. Time to add "naked" shipping to the mix:

- __No box within a box:__ Reduce the number of boxes by letting certain packages get shipped in their native packaging (just slap on a label).
- __Incentivize it:__ Give customers $1 off to "go naked." That's because it saves Amazon money (the boxes) and helps achieve its Climate Pledge. 
- __Set an example:__ Naked isn't always appropriate — A Rolex needs the anonymity of a brown box. But with customers craving "naked-eligible" $1-off items, producers may make their native packaging naked-friendly, ([like Tide](https://blog.aboutamazon.com/sustainability/reinventing-an-american-icon) already has).


__Carbon neutrality isn't profit neutrality...__ Most economists agree that greenhouse gases pollute, but most governments don't tax/limit them like they do other pollutants. That means Amazon is voluntarily taking care of Mother Earth with its Climate Pledge. Here's how it could affect profits:

- __Negatively:__ Amazon already pays [85](https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/16/business/amazon-cardboard-box-prime-day/index.html) workers to optimize packaging. Now it's got to pay for the $1 naked incentive and for a potential increase in stolen/damaged items.
- __Positively:__ Sustainability commitments can create brand love (we see you, Patagonia). Preventing trees from getting sawed down to box toilet paper can build customer loyalty.



We wish Amazon would unveil "naked" shipping to crush cardboard waste

"_Look right here for our crazy 2020 predictions_"

Our 3 bold biz wishes for 2020

__If two Carnival ships collide in a Mexican port...__ the stock still jumps 9% because __[Carnival](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CCL)__ reported strong earnings literally as that accident was unfolding. It's been a [rough](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/carnival-is-coming-off-cancellations-and-an-accident-but-analysts-are-still-upbeat-2019-12-23?mod=home-page) year for the cruiseliner — Case(s) in point:

- __Natural Disaster:__ Hurricane Dorian, one of the most powerful hurricanes ever recorded, made many cruises not happen. 
- __Geopolitics:__ President Trump reinstated the Cuba travel ban, while unstable politics in the Arabian Gulf limited Carnival's sailing latitude.
- __Reputation Sinkers:__ That memed-about [collision](https://www.today.com/video/what-caused-2-carnival-cruise-ships-to-collide-in-mexico-75572805573) between a pair of Carnival ships last week looks bad. So is having to [cancel](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/carnival-cancels-8-sailings-of-the-mardi-gras-cruise-ship-after-delivery-delay-2019-12-20) 8 cruise sailings after new ships were delayed.
- __Euro Downturn:__ As the European economy limps along with low growth rates, Carnival sales struggle — Europeans make up a hefty __30% of Carnival's business__, and they don't splurge on cruises when their "[European carryall](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YgQDAKsOh-M)" purses are hurting.

__Does this mean the buffet is still open?...__ While Carnival didn't have 2019 under (cruise) control, the stock inched up 3% this year. Plus, just this week in time for the holidays, analysts optimistically raised their price targets for 2020, thinking Carnival shares can cruise higher.

_When you crash 2 of your own ships into each other, and the stock is still up_

Cruise

__Show me the money...__ At the end of the day, a company's present and future profitability matter most. Carnival didn't have much control over the issues it faced this year (except for that fender bender). While Carnival's global sales have lagged, its critical North American revenues have risen consistently without life vests (and the numbers below make up about over 50% of Carnival's sales): 
- __$8B__ in 2016
- __$9B__ in 2017
- __$10B__ in 2018 


Carnival stock jumps despite a stormy 2019 (numbers can change the tides)

__Congrats on the arbitrary milestone...__ One of America's 3 big stock indexes, the __Nasdaq__, just hit the round number of [9,000](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-nasdaq-just-hit-9000-for-the-first-time-but-indexs-biggest-winners-arent-the-usual-tech-suspects-2019-12-26) points. The __[Dow Jones Industrial Average](https://robinhood.com/stocks/DIA)__ and __[S&P 500](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SPY)__ both aim to represent a broad industry range of US stocks — but Nasdaq is more of a tech index. And it's unique:

-  Nasdaq is __both an index *and* a stock exchange__, rivalling the New York Stock Exchange).
-  It reflects the performance of 3,000 mostly tech, growth-focused stocks.
-  __So we wrote a whole article for you defining Nasdaq__ [here](https://learn.robinhood.com/articles/1GXPrecRfkSNp0aBblBSsL/what-is-the-nasdaq/).

__The times, they are a-changing...__ The NYSE was founded way back in 1792, when brokers got together under a tree on Wall Street. The Nasdaq exchange was founded in 1971, claiming to be more efficient than NYSE because it used computers to trade, not huge dudes who had retired from college football/lacrosse. 

- __The Nasdaq OGs:__ __Microsoft__, __Apple__, __Amazon__, and even __Starbucks__ chose Nasdaq to prove that computers at Nasdaq's human-less trading floor can execute stock transactions.  
- __The NYSE Blue Chips:__ __Exxon Mobil__, __General Electric__, __Ford__, and __JP Morgan Chase__ proudly visit their home trading floor on Wall Street where pieces of paper (representing stock orders) used to be exchanged by hand.

Milestone

__There's hardly any difference between NYSE & Nasdaq anymore...__ Both exchanges give the same key benefits: *Companies can sell stock to public investors, then public investors can buy that stock*. That's why some tech companies list on the NYSE (like __Uber__) and some non-tech companies go Nasdaq (__Lululemon__ surged 91% on Nasdaq this year). Here are today's main differences: 

- __Nasdaq__ charges companies lower fees to list their stock.
- __NYSE__ brings the nostalgia of old (picture ringing that iconic ringing bell).
- NYSE is an __auction market__, like eBay for stocks: you do business directly with the person who's selling to you, and the highest bidder wins.
- Nasdaq is a __dealer's market__, like an Expedia for stocks: middlemen facilitate your transaction through an electronic network with millions of prices posted.

Nasdaq hits 9,000 for 1st time ever — Let us re-introduce what the "Nasdaq" is today

Carnival's sea-sick stock

__Travis don't want a lot for Christmas...__ There is just one thing Travis needs: *100% separating himself from his old company*. Former __[Uber](https://robinhood.com/stocks/uber)__ CEO Travis Kalanick just made 2 major holiday moves:

- __The money:__ Ever since the "lockup period" ended on Nov 6th, allowing pre-IPO Uber shareholders to sell their stock, Travis has gradually [sold](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/uber-co-founder-former-ceo-travis-kalanick-to-leave-board-after-selling-2-5-billion-in-company-shares/) his $2.7B worth. He's now a 0% owner of the company he once defined.
- __The power:__ Although he hasn't been CEO since getting ousted in 2017 (more on that below), he has remained a board member — He's [stepping down](https://www.axios.com/travis-kalanick-is-leaving-ubers-board-e9e28662-9122-4c68-9ed7-8b63d9b5364d.html) from that corporate jedi council on Dec 31st.

__Less super pumped...__ Travis founded Uber in 2009, leading it to become the most valuable private tech startup in the US (its peak value was $68B). But he lost his CEO-ship in 2017 and wasn't even invited to ring the bell on IPO day this May. Three issues caused his CEO-ousting:

1. __Scandal:__ That secret "[Greyball](https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/03/technology/uber-greyball-program-evade-authorities.html)" software it used to evade government regulators who were trying to study (and potentially stop) Uber.
2. __Culture:__ A bro-tastic workplace environment that was reported to ignore sexual harrassment complaints.
3. __#DeleteUber:__ Those first 2 (along with a seemlingly constant flow of negative PR) allowed rival __Lyft__ to snag some of Uber's share of the ride-hail market.

_Please leave me a 5 star Uber Board member rating_

__"*...To focus on his new business...*"__ Those are the [critical words](https://investor.uber.com/news-events/news/press-release-details/2019/Travis-Kalanick-to-Depart-Uber-Board-of-Directors/default.aspx) we noticed in Travis' press release. His new startup, __CloudKitchens__, is a spinoff idea from Uber Eats: *Renting out fully-equiped kitchen space for restaurants that only deliver*. He's pouring his own $$$ (and [$400M](https://www.wsj.com/articles/uber-co-founder-travis-kalanick-to-depart-companys-board-11577196747) from Saudi Arabia) into the idea. This holiday breakup with Uber isn't just personal — it's also his bet on the future of food logistics.

Uber's co-founder and ex-CEO has sold all his Uber stock (and quit the board)

__Packages that magically appear at your door...__ are actually the result of a million scrambling parts. While it only takes a few clicks to order something online, America's shipping infrastructure can only handle so many packages — and one element of the ecommerce supply chain is getting stretched extra hard: *Warehouses*.

__Your tiny pack of toilet paper takes up prime real estate...__ Warehouses store the TP on the way to you, but there's [hardly](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/24/delivery-dilemma-americans-are-ordering-more-but-the-us-can-only-handle-so-much.html) enough space for that. We've added 1B-square-feet of warehouses in America since 2013, but vacancy at the "hotel" where your packages chill before coming to you has hit an all-time low. And the price for warehouse space keeps rising.



_"The limit for online orders does not exist"_

Order

__Ecommerce is starting to change how cities are built...__ And you know we need a better urban design strategy when __Old Navy__ has to [partner](https://postmates.com/brand/old-navy) with __Postmates__ to deliver last-minute Christmas gifts. Here's what we're already seeing:

- __"The Airbnb for warehousing":__ Startups CubeWork, Flexe, and Flowspace offer up short-term space for retailers that need to deliver.
- __Delivery districts:__ DC is experimenting with entire package drop-off zones (nothing builds traffic like double-parked delivery trucks).
- __Vertical warehouses:__ The first 3-story warehouse in Seattle is now transforming deliveries from days to hours (a 4-story one is heading to Brooklyn).
- __*Extra*-vertical warehouses:__ Asia already has [20-story](http://cn.goodman.com/en/properties-for-lease/goodman-interlink) warehouses.


To adapt to never-ending ecommerce demand, warehouses are evolving

Travis ubers into the sunset

__“Cute Tesla”...__ (new bumper sticker for __Rivian__ drivers). The electric pickup truck startup snagged $1.3B in [fresh money](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autos-rivian/electric-vehicle-startup-rivian-scores-1-3-billion-investment-from-t-rowe-price-others-idUSKBN1YR1KF) from T. Rowe Price and existing investors like __[Ford](https://robinhood.com/stocks/F)__ and __[Amazon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMZN)__. That cash will facelift an old Mitsubishi plant in Normal, Illinois (great name) to start mass-ish producing e-pickups in 2021. Here's America's *State of the Car* (and their value by [market capitalization](https://learn.robinhood.com/articles/GByCbiOluG2kcWs1AF6m5/what-is-market-capitalization/)):

- __Detroit's Big 3:__ __[GM](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GM)__ ($53B), __[Ford](https://robinhood.com/stocks/F)__ ($37B), __[Fiat-Chrysler](https://robinhood.com/stocks/FCAU)__ ($29B — FYI, Chrysler merged with Fiat in 2009... and is mega-merging with __Peugeot__ right now).
- __Electric's Big 2:__ __[Tesla](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TSLA)__ ($72B) and __Rivian__ (somewhere between $5B-$7B — it's still private, so we don't know its valuation for sure). 

__Cars cost more than coders...__ App-based tech startups raise *tens or hundreds of millions* of dollars to hire programers and install kombucha taps. But Rivian raises money in the *billions* to build factories, fill them with high-tech robots, *and* hire engineers. All those costs are why fundraising for hardware cars is bigger than for software tech.

_Serious electric "trucktion"_

Electrify

__You want traction? I’ll show you *truction*...__ Venture capitalists, Ford, and Amazon had invested a huge $2.2B in Rivian already. To get this extra $1.3B, Rivian probably had to show them some traction — evidence that it's worth investing more into. How about this truction:

- __[Amazon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMZN)__ announced an [order](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/7xNotKPNHfdT89QWnYSHli/articles/6cdefIfhVSMzHEWj6JooCt/) in September for 100K Rivian electric delivery vans — Bezos needs them to achieve Amazon’s “Climate Pledge.” 
- Those will be delivered from 2021-2030 — they'll become both steady revenues and rolling billboards for Rivian as Amazon delivers packages nationwide.

Rivian's massive 4th fundraise of 2019 could make electric trucks mainstream (with help from Amazon)

__Who ya got?...__ Sports betting phenom __DraftKings__ [announced](https://www.draftkings.com/about/latest-press-release) it's dropping out of college to join a publicly-traded company that will be worth $3.3B total. The daily fantasy sports app lets you bet real money — and claims it dominates 60% of the fantasy market.

__*The Flying V, the Hail Mary*...__ Now add __*Triple Reverse Merger*__ to the list of all-time great plays. Instead of IPO'ing like most private companies do to bring their stocks to public markets, DraftKings will take a different route to the pros: *Merge with an already-public company.* Here's the new team:

- __DraftKings is the QB:__ Provides the core product — an app for new-school fantasy (bet $$$ on individual players) and old-school sports betting (wager that teams will win or beat-the-spread).
- __SBTech is the lineman:__ Provides the fundamental technology for bookmakers to set the bets.
- __[Diamond Eagle](https://robinhood.com/stocks/DEACU) is the coach:__ This is the already publicly-traded big shot with plenty of cash to spend on merging all 3 companies for (what it hopes will be) a game-winning lineup.

_Ducks bet together_

__2 critical moments shaped DraftKings into the player it is today...__ and both were focused on American consumers:
- __2016:__ DraftKings *tried* to merge with rival __FanDuel__ to dominate the fantasy sports market — but US regulators blocked the plan that would've created a sports betting monopoly as powerful as the '98 Yankees.
- __2018:__ The Supreme Court ends a federal ban on sports betting — since then, 13 states have legalized the industry and 6 more have legislation to join them.
- __The future:__ The sports betting industry is [expected](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/23/draftkings-to-become-public-company-forgoing-traditional-ipo.html) to hit $13B in annual revenue by 2023.

Sports betting goes public as DraftKing heads to the big leagues

"Cute Tesla"

__Scoreboard...__ Wondering how US stocks are doing? Check out the [S&P 500](https://learn.robinhood.com/articles/7kFFEUv46vmMCmMfLuNiRX/what-is-the-s-and-p-500/) — the index reflects the value of America's top 500 publicly-traded companies. Huge companies move the S&P 500 the most (__Apple__, __Microsoft__, __Amazon__), while little guys affect it less (think __Gap__, __Expedia__, __Kellogg__). 

- The S&P 500 __rose 1.64%__ last week to 3,221, *the highest it's ever been*
- __It's up 3.5%__ in the past month
- So far in 2019, it's __leapt a giant 28%__, nearly [tripling](https://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/18/the-sp-500-has-already-met-its-average-return-for-a-full-year.html) the index's average annual increase over the past 90 years

__It's the scoreboard every company (and investor) craves to beat...__ because it reflects the stock market's health as a whole. Shocked __Boeing's__ stock is up 1% this year? That's actually bad compared to the average 28% increase of the top 500 US stocks. The S&P 500 is winning thanks to this hat trick:

1. __Profits:__ As the global economy grows, American companies are keeping a much bigger chunk of profits than before, thanks to the tax cut (happy [2-year](https://www.npr.org/2019/12/20/789540931/2-years-later-trump-tax-cuts-have-failed-to-deliver-on-gops-promises) anniversary, tax cut). 
2. __Trade:__ Trade tensions with China are easing and Congress just passed a new trade deal for North America — that combo is chicken soup for business managers' souls.
3. __Rates:__ The super low interest rates the Fed has set encourage borrowing and spending — it's the soothing CBD-something sprinkled on top.

_2019 has victory vibes_

Winning

__Politics doesn't always ruin stocks...__ Deregulation of financial markets in the 2000s led to the '08 financial crisis. But last week's impeachment hasn't — some political drama messes with Wall Street, some stays on Twitter feeds. Impeachment isn't expected to affect corporate profits, trade, or interest rates. Plus, economists [aren't expecting](https://slate.com/business/2019/12/recession-economy-fed-rates-trade.html) a recession next year (like they were last Christmas).

Stocks hit record highs despite impeachment — here's the what, when, and why

__That data looks good on you...__ For the [1st time](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/3CVBpW75GRQOru2WFW8Wq6/articles/2Gmi4KSwuYdVshThFjSpbD) in 4 years, __H&M__ is on track to increase profits — all because of data. The fast fashion icon used to stock the same cookie-cutter styles of clothing in all its 5K stores globally. But Parisians don't shop the same as New Yorkers, so H&M ended up stuck with mountains of unsold clothes it had to discount, recycle, or [burn](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/27/business/hm-clothes-stock-sales.html). Now it's using social media, search queries, and other data to make store-by-store clothing choices. And hopefully not folllow Fast Fashion fellow __Forever 21's__ fate ([bankruptcy](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/1wM6VOBBd0aSdpfogALPwg/articles/4z2B04P1PZJc58D1ihlVfH/)).

__The $420 high wasn't only a dream for Elon...__ __[Tesla](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TSLA)__ stock [soared](https://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-stock-races-past-400-mark-11576781774) 12% higher last week to a record $406, more than double where the stock was in June. Investors are gaga for the new gigafactory to start creating Teslas in China, which is strategically important for 2 huge reasons: China is the biggest market for electric cars (by far) and producing there could help it avoid the tariff war. Lower costs there [could](https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-might-cut-price-model-3s-made-in-china-2020-2019-12) also help Tesla cut the price of its Model 3 in China by 20%, which could help it achieve mainstream status.

Highs

Who's up...

__That's a hard "nein"...__ Last week, a German court [banned](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-uber-court/german-court-bans-uber-services-via-rental-cars-in-germany-idUSKBN1YN171) Uber because it's not following all of Germany's many rules. Last month __[Uber](https://robinhood.com/stocks/uber)__ lost its license to operate in London (it's still operating in both those countries while it appeals, btw). Now we have news that ex-CEO/co-founder Travis Kalanick has sold over 90% of his stock in the company he once was "super pumped" about. No news is good news for Uber these days. *PS: Travis is using the cash to invest more in his new [ghost kitchen ](https://www.wsj.com/articles/meet-travis-kalanicks-secret-startup-cloudkitchens-11573122602?mod=article_inline) startup.*

__Cue the Chief Freakout Officer...__ __[FedEx](https://robinhood.com/stocks/FDX)__'s 40% profit drop last quarter was "horrific" — that's according to its own CFO. Despite breaking up officially with __[Amazon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMZN)__, FedEx wants to enable your online shopping habits with 7 day shipping operations — but that requires huge spending on a ground game. And the foam roller it needs to deliver to you ASAP is way less profitable for FedEx than its historic profit puppy, air "Express" busines shipments. Despite Wall Street's skepticism (the stock is down 39% since Amazon [launched](https://www.wsj.com/articles/amazon-to-launch-delivery-service-that-would-vie-with-fedex-ups-1518175920) 3rd party shipping), FedEx thinks its ecommerce will "start [lapping](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/18/fedex-says-it-will-start-lapping-amazon-in-2021.html)" Amazon in 2021.

Lows

...And who's down

Why stocks hit records *despite* impeachment

__Mutual split...__ Holding company __[IAC](https://robinhood.com/stocks/IAC)__ and its __Tinder__-owning subsidiary __[Match](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MTCH)__ have agreed to separate. Quick refresher: holding companies own enough stock in other companies to control their management. After a 20-year relationship, IAC will spin off Match into its own single independent company. Here’s what shareholders get:

- __It's amicable:__ IAC and Match stocks both jumped 8% on the [conscious uncoupling](https://goop.com/work/relationships/conscious-uncoupling-2/).
- __So who gets the couch?:__ More than half of IAC's revenue comes from its 80% ownership of Match. IAC shareholders will become owners of the new Match, and Match shareholders will too (plus they'll get a $3 bonus per share). Everyone's happy in this complex deal. 

__We had some great times...__ *but we're ready to move on*. IAC has already spun off *6 companies* (worth $58B total today). It [invested](https://www.wsj.com/articles/iac-interactive-match-group-agree-to-full-separation-11576757693) in Match in 1999, back when it was a little fish in a new online dating pond. Since Match IPO'd in 2015, shares have surged over 400%. IAC profited, and now it's time to move on to its next investment relationship.

_Watching Match and IAC split_

Split

__It's like Venture Capital, for the rest of us...__  Kind of. If you don't have million-dollar net worth to be an [accredited investor](https://news.crunchbase.com/news/venture-capital-guide-who-gets-to-invest-in-startups/), you probably can't invest in pre-IPO companies. Like a VC, IAC takes risks investing in smaller companies (like digital media brand __Vimeo__) that may (or may not) pay off. Unlike a VC, any retail investor (like you or us) can invest in publicly-traded IAC — and benefit *if* its bets pay off (like Match did).

IAC unmatches Match Group (and the break-up is benefiting both stocks)

__25 pts, 6 rebounds, 4 assists is great...__ but not *Nike great* (LeBron's laughing at you). That sums up __[Nike's](https://robinhood.com/stocks/NKE)__ 3rd quarter, which just got off the bench to share its stats. The results dropped shares 2% Thursday, knocking Nike slightly off its record high.

- __www.MVP.com:__ Online sales [leapt](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/19/nike-reports-q2-fiscal-2020-earnings.html) 38% thanks to an *insane 70% Black Friday surge* in North America — that's even more impressive since Nike just [stopped](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/1WPXxwug33zF94APry14KV/articles/6IDAYBVOs93vsShfE4INM5/) selling on Amazon (where it was listed among knockoffs). 
- __Home-field disadvantage:__ But shares fell because North America makes up 39% of Nike's sales, yet it's growing about a third as fast (5% sales growth) as it is abroad (13%).

__Achilles among the Myrmidons...__ That's Air Jordan. The brand is named/logo'd after the 6-time MVP-winner. Michael enjoys handsome royalty payments for each pair sold, but Air Jordan is still owned by Nike. Jordan just hit $1B in quarterly sales for the 1st time ever — it's now 10% of Nike's sales as it suits up legends at Universities of Michigan and Florida (Go Gators, Go Blue). 

"_Now let's go out there and have a billion-dollar quarter_"

__Mark leaves Nike in good shoes...__ Mark Parker, the longtime CEO, taps out in January. He's replaced by John Donahoe, whose biceps scream tech (ex-eBay CEO). Here's the funny thing: *Nike's tech-powered online sales look better than ever*. Direct-to-you Nike.com and Nike app sales crushed its physical stores. This new guy has big shoes to fill — shoes that doubled the stock since 2016.

Air Jordan hit $1B... but Nike didn't dominate at home

Air Jordan thinks it's a unicorn

__You taste them daily...__ but don't know 'em. Back in 1889, a Dutchman with a strong sense of smell founded a flavor company. A century of mergers later, __[International Flavors & Fragrances](https://robinhood.com/stocks/IFF)__ (IFF) is publicly traded and worth $14B. IFF makes your gum taste like mint and shampoo waft of coconut — now it's [merging](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/16/dupont-chairman-says-deal-with-iff-gives-new-company-double-the-rd-of-competitors.html) with a way larger company.

- IFF sells its sensory formulas to the consumer goods companies that make what you eat and smell, with sales split between "Taste" and "Scent."
- Its 5,000-square foot greenhouse in New Jersey boasts 1,300 tropical plants whose enzymes end up in that *eau de anything* perfume.
- __*SnackFact*__: IFF sent a rose into space, where lack-of-gravity transformed its scent  — then they brought it back to commercialize the fragrance as "[Space Rose](https://spinoff.nasa.gov/spinoff2002/ch_1.html)."

__Scent of a merger...__ After 123 years, IFF is merging with the nutrition-focused subsidiary of chemical legend __[DuPont](https://robinhood.com/stocks/DD)__ to create a $45B molecular science company. But investors aren't feeling the flavor, dropping IFF shares 9% after the announcement.

_When you're a shareholder in International Flavors & Fragrances_

Senses

__This merger isn’t about synergy — it’s a bet on 1 product...__ *Plant-based meat*. Turns out IFF creates flavors/colors for plant-based meats and DuPont produces plant-based proteins. Their customers are alt-beef icons __Beyond Meat__ and __Impossible Foods__. Together, IFF/DuPont could leverage its supply chain importance to jack up prices, or develop better im-meat-ations at a molecular level. 

Earth's biggest flavor/scent creator just merged (all because of faux meats)

__"We are at the bottom"...__ An actual quote from __[FedEx](https://robinhood.com/stocks/FDX)__'s CFO, or Chief Freakout Officer, who called last quarter's 40% profit drop "[horrific](https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/17/business/fedex-earnings-second-quarter/index.html)" (his words). The fallout:

- FedEx shares __dropped 10%__ after the report.
- Now it's __lost over $4B__ in market value since Tuesday.
- And it cut its projections for the holiday quarter (the __4th-straight quarter__ it's done that).

__FedEx stuffed 2019 with excuses...__ Execs blamed the costs of expanding ground service, global trade disputes, a late Thanksgiving, and the loss of Amazon as a customer (FYI, rival UPS' stock is up 20% this year). The big profit [loser](https://www.wsj.com/articles/fedex-stock-stung-by-the-shift-to-e-commerce-11576688289) for FedEx was ground delivery. Lots of it.

- It __takes big bucks to expand ground delivery__ to 7 days a week (think more trucks, new facilities, and weekend shifts — all cost $$$).
- Typical ecommerce deliveries, like replacing your headphones (again), are generally light-weight, one-off deliveries — __those generate less revenue than bulky business packages__ and require more costly routes/drivers.

_UPS checking out FedEx's earnings report_

Ship

__Getting out of your comfort zone is hard...__ For decades, FedEx's profit puppy has been high-priced, overnight business shipments that you're expensing (like contracts that need to be signed yesterday). Now, you're e-scribling digital John Hancocks, instead. So FedEx execs are cockily optimistic that ground delivery investments to snag more ecommerce packages will pay off in 2021 — they boldly claimed they'd "[start lapping](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/18/fedex-says-it-will-start-lapping-amazon-in-2021.html)" Amazon. 



FedEx's profit puppy is disappearing — and the new puppy it's chasing is expensive

Who makes the ingredients in plant-based meat?

__Might as well call it Diet-Chella...__ Weight Watchers isn't counting calories when it comes to investing in big names to rep its brand. Shares rose on word __[WW](https://robinhood.com/stocks/WW)__ (the ‘90s health throwback rebranded from "Weight Watchers") [extended](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/weight-watchers-still-banks-on-oprah-amid-competition-from-other-diet-plans-and-its-own-subscription-programs-2019-12-17) its partnership with Oprah through 2025. Check out the resumés of WW stock and Oprah:

- __Oprah:__ In 2015 the TV legend became a board member, advisor, and the 2nd largest shareholder, owning 8% of the company. 
- __Weight Watchers stock:__ Shares had fallen 90% in the 4 years prior to signing Oprah, but are up 500% in the 4 years after Oprah. We call this year "4 AO."

__How do you beat bread-hating Keto diets?...__ Schedule a nationwide 9-city [tour](https://www.weightwatchers.com/us/ambassadors/Oprah) from January to March packed with Oprah. It's called "Oprah's 2020 Vision: Your Life in Focus," and it's WW's most strategic Oprah move — she interviews celebs like Lady Gaga, The Rock, Michelle Obama, and Tina Fey about their health journeys. Paleo can’t fill an arena like Oprah can.


_Brainstorming ways to monetize Amazon Alexa_

Diet

__Oprah has way more pull than Chipotle's "Lifestyle Bowls"...__ WW hopes celeb endorsements will power it through the most critical quarter of the year: *New Year’s Resolution Q1*. And it’s looking good so far — Tickets for Oprah Vision Tour 2020 are over 80% sold out, and investment bank UBS predicts it'll drive 8% WW subscriber growth. Big names bring big bucks.

Weight Watchers puts full weight behind star-studded Oprah-palooza

__First comes puberty, then comes paying rent...__ Tech follows a similar path — Growth 1st, profits 2nd. *__Facebook__ focused its first 5 years on growth, and only started selling ads in 2012.* __[Amazon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMZN)__ Alexa grew in its first years to reach 100M Alexa-enabled devices worldwide, selling Echos and Alexa software for near nothing. Now it's time for Part 2: Make money.

__10K Amazonians are on Team Alexa...__ According to reporting from [The Information](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/amazon-learns-a-new-skill-making-money-from-alexa), ten-thousand employees must now figure out how to squeeze $$$ out of your awkward Alexa commands — because the voice assistant only brought in $1.4M in revenues for Amazon this year (that's a measly $140 per employee). Here are some of Amazon's ideas:

- __Premium content?:__ If you order __Spotify__ through Alexa, could Amazon take a cut of that subscription?
- __Premium skills?:__ If you ask Alexa to "translate Spanish homework," could Amazon charge your parents for that feature?
- __"Hey, famous person":__ This one's already happening — Alexa can adopt the voice of Samuel L. Jackson for [99 cents](https://www.amazon.com/Samuel-L-Jackson-celebrity-voice/dp/B07WS3HN5Q). More A-list celebs coming soon for $5.

_"Did that droid just ask me to pay $9.99/month?"_

Pivot

__It’s not 100% clear Alexa is a success...__ Amazon's plan was to disseminate Alexas across every corner of the country to hook people on Amazon Prime (and possibly get them voice shopping on Amazon). But that "vcommerce" feature hasn't taken off (at all). The fact that Amazon is now trying to make revenue *directly* from Alexa could be a signal that it failed its original purpose: Make money *indirectly* for Amazon.

Alexa has new orders from Amazon: Start making money

Weight Watcher's 9-city Oprah-palooza 

__The moth-eaten shirt wasn't a hit in Europe...__ For decades, __H&M__ designers visited fashion shows and flipped through glossy magazines to spot what was on trend, then bulk-ordered cheaper versions for their stores. The result: the same “fast-fashion” styles delivered to H&M's nearly 5,000 stores, cookie-cutter style. That worked (until it didn’t).

- __Wasted fabric:__ The cover-all-bases approach missed for many shoppers, leading to billions of dollars in unsold clothes piling up. H&M sales shrank the past 2 years, and shares plummeted 51% in the last 5 years.
- __Discount rack:__ H&M had to aggressively slash prices (and even [burn](https://www.forbes.com/sites/heatherfarmbrough/2018/04/14/hm-is-pushing-sustainability-hard-but-not-everyone-is-convinced/#321acc7a7ebd) clothes it couldn't sell, donate, or Secret-Santa away).

__Data = dollas...__ On Monday, H&M announced it's on track to increase profits for the [first time](https://hmgroup.com/content/dam/hmgroup/groupsite/documents/masterlanguage/cision/2019/12/2599642.pdf) in 4 years, thanks to a huge strategy shift. A couple years ago, H&M stepped up its [analysis](https://www.wsj.com/articles/h-m-pivots-to-big-data-to-spot-next-big-fast-fashion-trends-1525694400?mod=article_inline) game, hiring hundreds of data scientists to help make savvier predictions of what clothes go to each store. American shoppers probably aren't into the same rompers as Russian shoppers are.

_H&M nails the holiday shopping spree_

Style

__Drop the "Squad Goals" graphic tees...__ H&M stepped back and reassessed before clicking "Add to Cart." Instead of using humans to scout trends (like most retailers do), H&M now combs through social media posts, search queries, and the receipts of returned clothes — it better predicts what's earned a spot on the rack:

- H&M sees that its store in a swanky Stockholm neighborhood is __mostly visited by upper middle-class women__.
- So it __removes bland basics for men and kids__ and swaps them with fashion-forward floral skirts, cashmere sweaters, and $118 leather bags.
- __The end goal?__ *Make less clothing that people don't want. Survive the retail apocalypse.*

















H&M's savvy data-driven moves to save fast fashion are working

__Multi-generational success is rare...__ The Celtics, Yankees, and Jedi all achieved it. Intel's *[sound logo](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ihRPi4wcBY)* reminded us during every commercial that Intel was inside our computers. But as PC sales disappeared, __[Intel](https://robinhood.com/stocks/INTC)__ is searching for its second wave of profits. So it just swiped its corporate card for a $2B [acquisition](https://techcrunch.com/2019/12/16/intel-buys-ai-chipmaker-habana-for-2-billion/) of Israeli startup __Habana Labs__.

- __2016:__ Habana hid in "stealth mode" for 2 years, attracting $120M from venture capital to fund under-the-radar research and development.
- __2018:__ Habana unveiled Goya, a chip that processes almost 4x faster than __[NVIDIA](https://robinhood.com/stocks/NVDA)__, the market leader.
- __Right now:__ Habana's spearheading Intel's efforts to power data centers with fancy machine learning (more on those below). 

__Machines can learn...__ courtesy of chips made of silicon. As the world puts all its computer files on Google Drive, iCloud, and Amazon Web Services, tech companies need to organize that data ASAP. *Picture this:* Search "dog" in your photos folder:

- The results are actually the pictures you took of dogs. 
- *Your phone's software learned that a 4-legged object with a sloppy tongue who's always smiling is a dog.*
- Intel [thinks](https://siliconangle.com/2019/12/16/intel-shells-2b-high-speed-ai-chip-startup-habana-labs/) this type of artificial intelligence powering will become a $25B industry by 2024.

_Intel not trusting itself to build its own AI chips_

Compute

__Intel's acquiring instead of building...__ because its last DIY job was a disaster. In 2016, Apple selected Intel as its go-to iPhone chip-maker. When it was time to upgrade to 5G (aka right now), Intel couldn't deliver, so __Apple__ [switched](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/2jd81vF7Iw5vYhvrNZruqK/) to rival __Qualcomm__. After investing $16B in its smartphone division, Intel had to sell it away for only $1B to Apple. This time, it's *acquiring* so it can move faster. That Apple loss still burns Intel's RAM. 