__Bad record to hit...__ Last week, almost __[3.3M Americans](https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-long-run-of-american-job-growth-has-ended-11585215000)__ filed for unemployment benefits. We knew that as entire states/cities went on lockdown, non-essential workers (and those not able to WFH) were being laid off and deprived of income. But even Goldman Sachs' seemingly devastating [prediction](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-may-reach-225-million-goldman-sachs-economist-estimates-2020-03-20) was way off the actual unemployment number: 

- __3.3M__ is by far the largest weekly unemployment on record — it's nearly 5X larger than the previous record of [695K](https://www.npr.org/2020/03/26/821580191/unemployment-claims-expected-to-shatter-records), set in 1982. 
- __It's a massive jump__ from the [282K](https://www.npr.org/2020/03/26/821580191/unemployment-claims-expected-to-shatter-records) unemployment claims filed two weeks ago. US employers have added jobs to the economy for a record 113 months *straight* — a streak certain to end this month. 

__Getting very real...__ This is the first really concrete news we have about the economic pain precipitated by COVID-19 (though the economy has felt it for weeks now). But we also have some *positive* concrete news, which is the [$2T economic stimulus bill](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/CLl0evxvaKPwXSPACmU6C/articles/jtOWtkujqwVzIeEa8NYkj), expected to become law next week. It includes incentives for businesses not to lay off workers and extra funds for those who need to file for unemployment benefits. 


Report

__An unemployment safety net is crucial...__ Not getting laid off in the first place is better. Still, unemployment benefits might prove more important than one-time checks or loan incentives to businesses, since the government can't force small biz to pay workers who aren't working. Some could decline the government's loan-that-become-grants offer and choose to save right now by laying off workers — many already have, as evidenced by the unemployment numbers.

A record 3.3M Americans file for unemployment in just a week

__It looks like a bullseye...__ but it's not. __[Target](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TGT)__'s food and home essential products are living their best lives — not shocking, since the only journeys we're taking lately are round trip fridge visits. But the discount retailer warned about its *profits* for the rest of the year. Target's [sales](https://investors.target.com/news-releases/news-release-details/target-provides-business-update-related-covid-19) this March, compared to March 2019:

- __+20%:__ Rise in Target's overall sales
- __+50%:__ Surge in sales of home essentials and food/drinks 
- __-20%:__ *Drop in sales of clothing/accessories *

__A tale of two profits...__ "Apparel" is a much higher-margin product than food or home goods. That means Target can squeeze more profit out of every dollar of sales of clothes (compared to food). But since sales of stylish non-essentials are down, Target is losing on profit margin:

- Target sells __leggings__ from its *All In Motion* activewear line for __$30__. Suppose they cost Target __$4__ to produce — since the brand is one of Target's private labels, it's especially cheap to make. So Target earns __$26 in profit__ (or an 87% profit margin). 
- Target sells __a box of Cheerios__ for __$3.80__. Say it paid __$1.80__ to get it. Target makes __$2 in profit__ (or a 52% profit margin). 
- Apparel profits are bigger, both in pure dollar amount and as a percentage of sales — *their profits add up faster*.

_Still wearing the same Target outfits from last year_

Shop

__Not all sales are created equal...__ Despite a surge in essentials sales, Target's loss in the apparel category is like a profit-sucking Dementor. So Target has made changes, like pausing plans to remodel 300 stores. The pandemic served up a double profit-killing whammy — Target is also splurging more on staff (working overtime) and sanitizing/virus-proofing its operations. It's even installing "[sneeze guards](https://www.businessinsider.com/walmart-costco-target-adapt-stores-prevent-coronavirus-infection-2020-3#walmart-1)." 

Target is winning on hoarding — but it's living a fake rich life

__A val-U-turn...__ __Lime__ is the world's [largest](https://www.theverge.com/2020/3/20/21188119/electric-scooter-coronavirus-bird-lime-spin-suspend-bikes) e-scooter sharing company. But as major cities like LA and Paris turn into ghost towns, familiar Lime scooters disappeared from (nearly empty) streets. Riders are self-quarantining — that means no scooting to your morning latte. Now Lime is [reportedly](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/limes-valuation-may-fall-80-in-emergency-fundraising?utm_content=article-4354&utm_campaign=article_email&utm_source=sg&utm_medium=email) raising emergency funds at a valuation of $400M — *that's 80% less than its 2019 valuation of $2.4B*.

- Lime shut down its scooter rental in almost __24 countries and 100 cities__ (aka basically all its locations), even though officials in cities like SF consider them "[essential services](https://sfist.com/2020/03/22/e-scooter-companies-scoot-lime-and-jump-halt-operations-in-sf-spin-continues-running/)." 
- Despite raising over $700M in venture capital funding, Lime __only has $50M-$70M of cash left__ — and that's only expected to last a few more months. 

__And there's not much more saving it can do...__ Lime already sadly __laid off 100 employees__ (or 17% of its staff), and plans to continue cutting. So now it has to raise more funds, but at a *wayyy* lower valuation than when it fundraised in 2019. FYI, Lime had been one of the fastest companies ever to evolve into a unicorn, hitting a $1B valuation a year-and-a-half after launching.

_Not a Lime in sight_

Scoot

__Private companies have stocks too...__ You just don't see them. Unlike public-traded companies — whose stocks constantly gain/lose value as their prices move up/down — private companies' value only changes with funding rounds (when investors offer to buy new shares). Lime is a reminder that private valuations can drop fast too, like stocks... even if you don't see the ride down.

Lime may be e-scooting into an 80% valuation drop

Dow Jones

S&P 500

Nasdaq

Bitcoin

10-Yr US Treasury

🎯 Target is fake rich

__Let's get fiscal, fiscal...__ The White House and Senate struck a deal for a huge $2T economic stimulus package — it's 2.5X bigger than the stimulus given after the 2008 financial crisis. 90% of Americans will be eligible to receive full or partial payments, according to [estimates](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trillion-stimulus-package/story?id=69791823). Since it's being paid to you (courtesy of your tax dollars), we'll itemize the receipt:

- __Around $900B in payments to Americans:__ [$1.2K checks](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/25/us/politics/whats-in-coronavirus-stimulus-bill.html) sent to each taxpayer with individual incomes of up to $75K/year (little less for $75K-$99K) and no check if you're making over $100K. Families also get $500/child. Plus, the gov is looking to dramatically increase [unemployment assistance](https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-administration-senate-democrats-said-to-reach-stimulus-bill-deal-11585113371) by an extra $600/week for up to 4 months.

__I'm just a bill, yes I'm only a...__ mammoth $2T economic rescue bill. We didn't forget there's still a key $1.1T left to account for:

- __$350B for Small Biz:__ Loans for small businesses. Important: Loans are [*forgiven*](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trillion-stimulus-package/story?id=69791823) for businesses that don't lay off workers and keep sending them paychecks for the duration of the crisis. 
- __$500B for Big Biz:__ $425B in loans for struggling corporations and $75B for specific industries like airlines (which will be [banned](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trillion-stimulus-package/story?id=69791823) from stock buybacks — the $$$ should go to employees and investments, not shareholders).
- __$150B to State/Local Gov:__ To deal with virus-related costs and losses.
- __$100B for Healthcare:__ To help hospitals manage the front lines of the crisis (and buy crucial medical supplies like beds, masks, and ventilators). 









_Cashing in the $2T stimulus bill_

Stimulate

__This (partly) fills the giant spending hole...__ Consumer spending + government spending makes up a huge part of America's [Gross Domestic Product](https://learn.robinhood.com/articles/29d9WQgPq119raQYS1Wm6H/what-is-gross-domestic-product-gdp/). $2T is around 10% of the total spending/production in the US each year (aka, 10% of GDP). In 2019, the US gov spent [$4.45T](https://www.usaspending.gov/#/) — this stimulus alone is nearly *half* that, and is meant to offset spending and income that doesn't happen because of the virus. And it still might not be enough. 



The US gov finalizes a deal for historic $2T economic rescue package

__Well, this is awkward...__ We're familiar with the concept that if a product is free, our attention likely *is* the product. With everyone cooped inside because of coronavirus, virtual communication is more important than ever. So is *not* going outside. That means way less shopping/spending, and puts ad-reliant social media giants in an awkward situation:

- __[Facebook](https://robinhood.com/stocks/FB):__ Messaging across FB's [apps](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/2NAQjqWOY8CUQ4E7cSgLSV/articles/1B3z0zVanj31Zf7eHDXXjY/) in the hardest hit countries has surged [50%](https://www.wsj.com/articles/facebook-warns-that-skyrocketing-usage-wont-lead-to-increased-revenue-11585083493?mod=business_lead_pos7), while video chatting has more than 2X'd. In Italy alone, group video calling is up [1,000%](https://www.wsj.com/articles/facebook-warns-that-skyrocketing-usage-wont-lead-to-increased-revenue-11585083493?mod=business_lead_pos7) from a month ago, and FB app usage is up 70% across the board.
- __[Twitter](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TWTR):__ Daily usage has jumped a whopping [23%](https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/3/24/21192311/coronavirus-pandemic-media-advertising-twitter-new-york-times) this year thanks to desperately inactive Twitter fingers. 


__But social media relies on ad sales...__ While people need social media more than ever, *advertisers have never needed it less*. Marketers won't waste big marketing bucks on ads if you won't buy their products anyway (no one cares about the new spring eyeshadow palette when all you need is a robe to stay home). So Facebook and Twitter haven't translated the usage surge into ad $$$.



 



FB to Twitter: "_What are we going to do with all this usage?_"

Advertise

__We could face ad-pocalypse 2020...__ When spending drops during economic downturns, so do ad sales. Twitter revealed its ad sales may have dunked as much as [20%](https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/3/24/21192311/coronavirus-pandemic-media-advertising-twitter-new-york-times) in March. Facebook [expects](https://www.wsj.com/articles/facebook-warns-that-skyrocketing-usage-wont-lead-to-increased-revenue-11585083493?mod=business_lead_pos7) something similar. The bright spot for ad-reliant media companies is that they *might* retain this larger/more engaged user base when the economy rebounds. But think about the 2 types of companies and their demand for ads:

- __Companies that sell essentials__ (like food/TP) don't need ads right now (you're buying TP no matter what).
- __Companies that sell non-essentials__ don't want ads because their stores are closed. 

Facebook and Twitter see massive usage surges — but their ads can't capitalize on it

💰Getting fiscal: $2T to the rescue

__Corporate America puts on its war cape...__ In World War II, __[Ford](https://robinhood.com/stocks/F)__ produced [B-24](https://www.thehenryford.org/collections-and-research/digital-collections/expert-sets/101765/) bombers to help the war effort. Today we're fighting a *very different* battle against an invisible foe: COVID-19. Now, Ford and its corporate peers are stepping up to try and provide the "weapons" we need to virus-fight. 

- __Doctors and nurses__ need to be healthy to treat and help sick people. To protect them, we need filtering masks and respirators — but there's a serious [shortage](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/19/health/coronavirus-masks-shortage.html). 
- __To treat really sick people__ having trouble breathing, we need ventilators — but there's a more [massive shortage](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/18/business/coronavirus-ventilator-shortage.html) of those. NY has just [7K](https://www.politico.com/states/new-york/albany/story/2020/03/24/cuomo-to-trump-administration-you-pick-the-26k-people-who-are-going-to-die-1268833) of the 30K ventilators it expects needing to treat a surge in hospitalized patients. 


__Reducing the supply gap...__  American corporations are teaming up to help slash the shortage for respirators and ventilators:

-  __[3M](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MMM) and Ford will produce__ a new [Powered Air-Purifying Respirator](https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/24/business/ford-3m-ge-ventilators-coronavirus-duplicate-2/index.html) to protect healthcare workers from the virus. They'll also boost production of 3M's current respirator product.
-  __[Fiat](https://robinhood.com/stocks/FCAU) will produce__ up to [1M](https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/24/business/ford-3m-ge-ventilators-coronavirus-duplicate-2/index.html) masks to donate to emergency personnel, while Ford is creating disposable respirators from 3D printers (could produce at least 1K/month once approved).
- __Ford is working with [GE](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GE)__ to boost production of GE Healthcare ventilators, while GM will team up with __Ventec Life Systems__ to majorly increase ventilator production. 
- __PS:__ *Ford's calling this "Project Apollo", because the Apollo 13 mission had to build ventilators in a life-or-death emergency (kind similar to right now).*

_Corporate America mobilizes for the virus fight_

Produce

__The Defense Production Act is the next step...__ The DPA gives the federal government power to force and incentivize businesses to produce goods required for national defense. The White House used the DPA for the [1st time](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/24/white-house-to-use-defense-production-act-to-procure-test-kits-fema-chief-says.html) during the COVID-19 pandemic yesterday, to get 60K testing kits. Despite corporate America's voluntary efforts, we might need a lot more DPA-usage to get the ventilators and respirators we need.

Project Apollo: Ford, GE, and 3M lead America’s corporate mobilization war on COVID-19

__If it helps people stay glued to the couch...__ that's one way to fight the COVID-19 spread. North American weed producers are seeing a major sales boom. As lockdowns continue across the US and Canada, panicked pot buyers are stocking up on their brownies, gummies, and smokeable weed products in particular. All this panic even though...

- __Cannabis stores have been listed as "essential services"__ (not mandated to close) in [over 12 states](https://www.nytimes.com/article/coronavirus-weed-marijuana.html). Others that can't remain open are shifting to delivery/pickup. 
- __On Monday, the Mayor of Denver__ ordered all recreational weed stores to close — then he [reversed](https://www.nytimes.com/article/coronavirus-weed-marijuana.html) the ban just a few hours later on widespread outrage. 

__Hitting new highs, after years of disappointment...__ Since recreational weed was legalized in parts of the US and Canada, sales slowed. Demand was over-hyped and producers ended up [over-producing](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/6EsFMIeLU13Zmh1NcQIyCg/articles/5aghdEWcljkxWLk2v6HntH): shares of Canadian cannabis giants __[Aurora Cannabis](https://robinhood.com/stocks/ACB)__, __[Tilray](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TLRY)__, and __[Canopy](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CGC)__ each started 2020 down ~60% from their 2018 highs. But now...

- __[+50%](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-cannabis/as-customers-hoard-pot-brownies-north-american-weed-firms-see-lockdown-boost-idUSKBN21B2DC) =__ How much recreational weed sales across the key markets of California, Colorado, Oregon, and Alaska were up last week.
- __[+150%](https://www.nytimes.com/article/coronavirus-weed-marijuana.html) =__ Spike in weed sales in the SF Bay Area after the "stay-at-home" order was issued (compared to same time last year).
- __[+100%](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-cannabis/as-customers-hoard-pot-brownies-north-american-weed-firms-see-lockdown-boost-idUSKBN21B2DC) =__ How much online cannabis sales on Canada's gov-run Ontario Cannabis Store jumped in only 2 weeks.
- *One guy even purchased enough weed for [9.5 years](https://www.vice.com/en_ca/article/jgen94/coronavirus-is-turning-people-into-weed-dealers-and-hoarders) of daily joint-smoking.*


"_Just cleaned out all the dispensaries in town..._"

Smoke

__This probably won't change long-term weed demand...__ The surge in sales is giving pot stocks a boost — in the last 5 days, Canopy is up 35% and Tilray is up 43% (though both are still down over 70% from a year ago). Still, the bump in sales will likely dwindle when things get back to normal. And if people have a lot hoarded, it may actually hurt cannabis companies more in the long-run (they'll lose out on future sales).

Pot sales are soaring on lockdown panic

🍃 Pot's panic-buying pop

__Two roads diverged in a yellow wood...__ and both are less travelled by. [Robert Frost](https://www.poetryfoundation.org/poems/44272/the-road-not-taken) had an easier choice. When the "[15 Days to Slow the Spread](https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/03.16.20_coronavirus-guidance_8.5x11_315PM.pdf)" end on March 31, the White House will face 2 options for what to recommend next in response to the Coronavirus:

- __A) Aggressive distancing:__ Order everyone to stay at home, keep almost all businesses closed indefinitely, and have those who can WFH do it. Great way to contain the disease, but with devastating economic consequences: Potentially [30% unemployment](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-22/fed-s-bullard-says-u-s-jobless-rate-may-soar-to-30-in-2q?sref=q3KSFp38) and Goldman Sachs thinks [2.25M](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/03/20/us-unemployment-claims-could-blow-past-2m/) became unemployed just last week. 
- __B) Targeted/Partial distancing:__ Relax CDC guidelines to gradually let biz reopen and the young/healthy return to work. Only keep the most vulnerable — the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions — at home. This could limit the economic damage, but with potentially devastating health consequences: If miscalculated, this could increase the death toll to [millions](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/opinion/sunday/coronavirus-outcomes.html).


__We've never been faced with a decision like this....__ Both President Trump and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin have signaled a [shift](https://www.npr.org/2020/03/23/819118596/watch-white-house-to-give-its-daily-update-on-coronavirus-efforts) in which path to choose, only days after promoting the 15-day distancing plan. Trump [tweeted](https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1241935285916782593?) Monday "we cannot let the cure be worse than the problem itself." He doesn't want to save everyone if it means utter destruction of the economy.







"_Well... both these paths look pretty terrifying._"

Choose

__This choice is painful — and economists love that...__ It isn't strictly between economic damage or health damage, *because the 2 overlap in some scenearios*: Inability to support families could increase [suicide](https://www.nimh.nih.gov/health/statistics/suicide.shtml) rates, a leading cause of death in the US — but relaxing social distancing guidelines might overwhelm the healthcare system, leading to more deaths and economic damage in the long run. 

2 hard choices on the coronavirus path — Trump signals shift to Path B

__That New Yorker subscription you pay for...__ but only read the cartoons? There's a fix. The __[New York Times](https://robinhood.com/stocks/NYT)__ just [acquired](https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/23/the-new-york-times-company-acquires-audm-an-app-that-turns-longform-journalism-into-audio/) __Audm__, a subscription app that turns longform articles into audio. For $9/month, Audm gives subscribers audio versions of way-too-long articles so that you can feel enlightened while cleaning out your closet.

- __Out of all the services__ that turn articles/stories into audio, Audm caught the NYT's eye because of the Hollywood-ish flare it adds: in the past it crowdsourced narration with plain old voices. But after growing tired of dogs barking in the background, it landed on... 
- __Using pro voice actors__ to narrate articles — these literary "celebs" make listening to a 6-million-word article more enticing. Audm works with outlets like The Atlantic and Vanity Fair to voice-ify their writing.

__Double-down on the "pod boom"...__ The NYT learned, maybe from its own [article](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/06/business/media/podcast-growth.html) on the topic, that podcast growth in the US is popping. In November 2019, a whopping [62M Americans](https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradadgate/2019/11/18/podcasting-is-going-mainstream/#45e378661699) listened to pods each week, up from 19M in 2013. The Times' "Daily" pod is already the top daily pod on Spotify, but it wants an even bigger share of America's ears — so it's audio-fying its articles. 

_"If only my voice could read me this artcile"_

Listen

__This 1 acquisition basically doubles the Times' content...__ The NYT already has the raw news content — that's the most time/research-intensive part of journalism. But now for each 12-page article it churns out, it can expand reach (and earn more money) by converting it to another medium (audio). Since media is a combo of "Content" + "Distribution," the more distribution channels a quality publisher has, the greater their reach.

The New York Times strategically acquired an article-reading startup

🤔 We've got 2 paths

__Online wine shopping for virtual happy hour...__ In this social distancing economy, things move *fast*. "Flattening the curve" means staying in and avoiding physical contact with people — never before has social media been flooded with so many "at-home-workout" and baking videos. It's the Coronavirus economy, aka the "corona-conomy".

__We noticed something about certain disruptive trends...__ It looks like they're accelerating in this contact-less economy. There were already reasons to try out disrupting products — this public health crisis has added even more:

- __Cord-Cutting:__ One of the last reasons for many to keep paying ~$100/month for cable was live sports. That's been shut down (as have the late night TV shows). People need stuff to watch more than ever right now, and might decide their sports-less cable package [isn't worth it](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/business/media/coronavirus-television-netflix.html). 
- __Online Grocery:__ While egrocery is still in its infancy, more people are trying it out: a [survey](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nation-shutting-down-walmart-time-202236790.html) on March 13th showed that 1/3 of American shoppers had bought groceries online in the prior week (over half for the 1st time). 
- __Take-Out Only:__ We [predicted](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/7FZ2Y2xcNIaxsq2draeL1m/articles/5qta5TsLc6jtvLZWqurrW) the rise of seat-less restaurants (even though we never imagined this reason for it). __Starbucks__ has converted its US and Canadian locations to pickup/delivery-only and __Dunkin'__ went one step further — it's [removed](https://www.restaurantbusinessonline.com/financing/starbucks-eliminate-seating-close-some-stores) tables and chairs to make sure people get the message not to stick around.
-  __D2C Movies:__ With theaters closed, __Universal Studios__ is releasing new movies [directly online](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/16/universal-to-release-movies-online-while-they-are-in-theaters-starting-with-trolls-world-tour.html) for streaming ($19.99 rentals to start). Historically movies only go online/DVD/Blue-Ray/VHS after a 90-day theater-only period.

"_But can you keep up with the acceleration?_"

Accelerate

__We're predicting that these trends could accelerate...__ in the corona-conomy. We'll start to know for sure in April. That's when most companies release their quarterly earnings reports and we'll get sales figures to analyze. In the long-term — when things get back to normal — we'll see if changes in business and consumer behavior were long-lasting or just temporary adjustments to deal with this life-changing crisis.  

Social distancing is accelerating business trends — could change industries forever

__The DIY that keeps on giving...__ __[Domino's](https://robinhood.com/stocks/DPZ)__ passed on using outside delivery services (like __DoorDash__) and spent years [beefing up](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/4dQzmfcL6V8Dtknj3cmAs4/articles/7t7MNxjGP1Bmx1DtzDt9BN) its own app, delivery, and pickup infrastructure. In these social-distancing times, its biz model is tasty. Now the pizza legend is [hiring](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/19/dominos-expects-to-hire-10000-workers.html) an additional 10K workers to handle increased demand just as restaurants around the US brace for layoffs. Delivery makes up about [55%](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/19/dominos-expects-to-hire-10000-workers.html) of Domino's total orders, so it's well-positioned to thrive during these pandemic times.


__The less I go, the better...__ While markets plunged 15% last week, shares of Earth's largest brick-and-mortar retailer hit an [all-time high](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/3RZmA5EnTQS6bHZZtNhsuN/articles/1AD98yHLvpwjl79tQSzknw) — __[Walmart](https://robinhood.com/stocks/WMT)__'s egrocery biz is finally having its moment. Of 1st-time online grocery shoppers in a recent [survey](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nation-shutting-down-walmart-time-202236790.html), *a whopping 58% of those newbies shopped at Walmart.* Meanwhile an economic recession could boost appeal for its low prices. And its biggest strength is still its reach — [90%](https://corporate.walmart.com/newsroom/2019/02/13/automation-is-reshaping-work-across-america-a-new-report-explores-the-impact-and-how-communities-might-respond) of Americans live within 10 miles of a Walmart. 



Highs

Who's up...

__Cutting a TP square in half...__ The most inexplicable product in the coronavirus panic-buying lineup: *toilet paper*. While US TP sales surged [60%](https://www.wsj.com/articles/relax-america-the-u-s-has-plenty-of-toilet-paper-11584388168) from the same time last year, TP-makers [aren't so thrilled](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/1lDDrudmsmZqlefmRUywxS/articles/2Ldz75Us2KdusEsPlkc8lm).  The production lines of __[Kimberly-Clark](https://robinhood.com/stocks/KMB)__ (Scott), __[Procter & Gamble](https://robinhood.com/stocks/PG)__ (Charmin), and __Georgia Pacific__ (Angel Soft) were already maxed out, rolling out TP 24/7. But don't be fooled — long-term demand for TP is unchanged by this crisis and hoarders prob won't be restocking for another 4 months — so TP companies might lose sales later on.

__What goes up...__ Musk come down. Remember when __[Tesla](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TSLA)__ shares rallied in [ludicrous mode](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/23rAZNGewLgeWZFmLjk94T/articles/2FGrtDgStyRFOOhKpFOiRE)? The e-car maker's stock has plunged 53% from its mid-February peak, nearly twice as bad as the overall market's 30% drop. After an awkward tiff with CA authorities (Elon [said](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8122185/Elon-Musk-says-sick-staff-stay-home-going-work-day.html) he would "personally be at work" after the lockdown), Tesla will [suspend](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-musk/tesla-reduces-us-factory-personnel-as-musk-offers-to-produce-ventilators-idUSKBN2160PM) production at its Bay Area factory starting March 24th. Still, Tesla's new China factory now has 91% of workers back — production has even [reportedly](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-musk/tesla-reduces-us-factory-personnel-as-musk-offers-to-produce-ventilators-idUSKBN2160PM) exceeded pre-virus levels.

Lows

...and who's down

🏃‍♀️ Trend acceleration nation

__$10B in cash, lots of food, and some side-hustlin'...__ Sounds like a good recipe for weathering a pandemic — and __[Uber](https://robinhood.com/stocks/UBER)__ just [flaunted it](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/19/uber-stock-pops-after-saying-worst-of-coronavirus-fallout-is-behind-it.html) to the world, fresh out the oven. Its stock popped 38%  after CEO Dara Khosrowshahi said his company has plenty of cushion to weather the  crisis. First, the burnt cake:

-  __Uber stock has plunged 50%__ over the past month on locked-down cities, shuttered restaurants/bars, and overall germ fears.
- That's courtesy of a __60%-70% plummet__ in rides in areas most affected by the crisis — it also [suspended](https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/ryanhatesthis/uber-suspends-uber-pool-due-to-coronavirus) its shared pool rides on virus-spread fears.

__But Uber is primarily a tech company...__ While some investors equate ride-hailing with travel, and travel with a current mega-struggle bus, Uber wants the world to remember that its business is tech. It flexed its crisis-confidence by [throwing out](https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/19/uber-coronavirus-update/) some #fancy terms:

- __"Ample liquidity"__ — Uber's got __$10B__ in unrestricted cash to cushion its ride-hailing woes. It says that even if rides fall by 80% this year (worst-case scenario), it would still have __$4B__ in cold hard cash left to spare on top of a __$2B__ credit line.
- __"Multiple business lines"__ — That's [Uber Eats ](https://www.uber.com/us/en/about/uber-offerings/)(its food delivery biz), [Uber Freight](https://www.uber.com/us/en/freight/) (its shipping app), and [Uber Health](https://www.uberhealth.com/) (its healthcare ride-scheduling app) — all poised to succeed at a time when simple ride-sharing can't.



_Uber flexing its flexible cost structure_

Ride

__Flexible costs could be Uber's lifeline...__ Another fancy term Uber [dropped](https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/19/uber-coronavirus-update/): "*highly variable cost structure*." Uber's expenses are flexible — costs can scale when business winds down/up. Uber doesn't have many [fixed costs](https://learn.robinhood.com/articles/2jgI28T5FJ2v4pXIjhAPtC/what-is-a-fixed-cost/) (think: rent). That's an advantage over business like airlines and [car-makers](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ford-hoards-cash-withdraws-profit-163246072.html), which have massive factories and expensive machinery. Uber's "storefront" is an app — not a rent-heavy retail spot.

Uber's CEO just basically updated the company's Tinder profile

__Netflixing while stretching and video-conferencing...__ That *Love is Blind* episode might be coming in a little fuzzier than usual. __[Netflix](https://robinhood.com/stocks/NFLX)__ is a leader of the "stay-at-home" stock pack, and we've been doing a preternatural amount of staying-at-home lately.  So the EU [asked](https://www.businessinsider.com/eu-netflix-hd-video-internet-strain-coronavirus-outbreak-2020-3) it to *stop streaming HD video* to "secure internet access for all" — aka, not break the internet: 

- __The EU Commissioner__ literally called Netflix CEO Reed Hastings to tell him to cut out the HD stuff because it's causing an internet traffic jam. He even started a [hashtag](https://www.businessinsider.com/eu-netflix-hd-video-internet-strain-coronavirus-outbreak-2020-3) for it: #SwitchtoStandard.
- __At least for the next month,__ Netflix will [reduce](https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/19/tech/netflix-internet-overload-eu/index.html) its streaming quality in Europe. Because not being able to stream in HD is probably the least of our problems. Plus...
- __Videos account for__ a massive bulk of network traffic, like a giant weight on the internet's back. Netflix's HD vids use 3GB of data/hour, as opposed to 1GB/hour for standard def.

__Netflix isn't the only one pushing the web's limits...__ __[Facebook](https://robinhood.com/stocks/FB)__ also had a massive viral-surge in usage for its "[family of apps](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/2NAQjqWOY8CUQ4E7cSgLSV/articles/1B3z0zVanj31Zf7eHDXXjY/)" (Instagram, WhatsApp, Facebook, Messenger) — and it [admitted](https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/18/tech/zuckerberg-facebook-coronavirus-response/index.html) it's being stretched to the limits of its tech infrastructure. __[Google](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GOOGL)__, which is now [offering](https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/3/11/21173449/microsoft-google-zoom-slack-increased-demand-free-work-from-home-software) its enterprise WFH software for free, has been working on increasing its capacity, too.

"_I thought I told you, no more HD_"

Stream

__While media usage is surging, media is not equal...__ The key difference is in the business model: Google/Facebook/Snapchat rely on ad sales, while Netflix has a subscription-based model (starting at $8.99/month). If the economy hits recession, advertisers are expected to cut back on their ad budgets. That's a threat to ad-based biz models — Netflix's subscription-focus might be more reliable in the long-term.

Netflix gets asked to chill, but investors are just glad it doesn't have ads

🍰 Uber's pandemic-weathering recipe 

__Virtually stocking up on nut butters...__ Online grocery shopping has surged in this virus economy — whether it's delivery or curbside pickup, the less human contact required, the more popular a service becomes. But one player in the e-grocer surge stands out aggressively: __[Walmart](https://robinhood.com/stocks/WMT)__. While the market has plummeted, *Walmart stock just hit an all-time high*. 

- __1/3:__ That's the fraction of shoppers who bought online groceries in the past week, according to a recent [survey](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nation-shutting-down-walmart-time-202236790.html).
- __Nearly half__ were 1st-time egrocery customers.
- __58%:__ Walmart's huge share of those new e-grocery customers (__Amazon__ trails with 14%, __Target__ with 10%).

__Walmart is America's grocery...__ With [11.5K](https://corporate.walmart.com/our-story/our-locations) stores worldwide and [2.2M](https://corporate.walmart.com/newsroom/company-facts) employees, Walmart is also Earth's biggest brick-and-mortar retailer. And it's spent the past 5 years [aggressively expanding](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/3GrDekUbeSUHNRq33vbDag/articles/3rC0C91lB3jKOjyrZfutDP) its ecommerce infrastructure:

- __3.2K__ locations let you pickup groceries curbside, while  __1.6K__ spots deliver to your door.
- __90% of Americans__ live within [10 miles](https://corporate.walmart.com/newsroom/2019/02/13/automation-is-reshaping-work-across-america-a-new-report-explores-the-impact-and-how-communities-might-respond) of a Walmart, which also helps. 
- __56%__ of Walmart's sales are now from groceries.


_"Grocery shopping was my favorite pastime, honey"_

Order

__Coronavirus is giving e-grocery its moment...__ Online grocery is still in the toddler stage with early adopters. Walmart's ecommerce biz is still [unprofitable](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/3GrDekUbeSUHNRq33vbDag/articles/3rC0C91lB3jKOjyrZfutDP), but its online sales grew 37% last year (largely thanks to groceries, and its ecommerce sites are live in [10 countries](https://corporate.walmart.com/our-story/our-locations)). After you try e-ordering Walmart's asparagus and cashew butter, investors think you'll stick around for the cheap socks and absurd number of locations (likely) nearby.

After years of prep, Walmart's online grocery biz has its big moment

__It's a BYOD event...__ "Buy The Dip" refers to a strategy of buying stocks when their prices are low (taking advantage of "sale" price), and eventually selling if the prices rise (quick reminder: they can fall, too). __[Starbucks](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SBUX)__ is *kind of* doing the same thing, but with its own stock — we're calling it: "Buy Your Own Dip" (not to be confused with Superbowl-related "bring your own dip"). 

- Starbucks __will buy back about $2B__ of its own stock from investors.
- __In the past month__, Starbucks' stock price has fallen nearly __40%__. Hence, the dip.
- FYI, by splurging on its own shares, the coffee legend reduces its assets (cash) which can boost its [return on equity](https://learn.robinhood.com/articles/2GBgleCZUtDVLkukZsjWXx/what-is-return-on-equity/).

__Stock buybacks are (kind of) like gifts to shareholders...__ By buying back a large amount of its own shares (reabsorbing them), a company can improve its stock's price because the number of [shares outstanding](https://learn.robinhood.com/articles/GByCbiOluG2kcWs1AF6m5/what-is-market-capitalization/) falls. The fewer shares are out there, the more your ownership/earnings per share increase. Another way to reward shareholders is through paying out [dividends](https://learn.robinhood.com/articles/6jGOO5O2YvyoZzlEUtIq0F/what-is-a-dividend/) to them.

- __In 2019__, Starbucks reportedly returned [$12B](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/starbucks-approves-buy-back-plan-of-40-million-shares-as-investors-meet-2020-03-18) to its shareholders through dividend payments and repurchases of 140M shares. 
- __The 40M shares__ Starbucks is now buying back make up around 3% of its outstanding total (and would cost around $2B at the current stock price). Might not be the best time to make multi-billion purchases buuut...



_When you're the only one who BYOD'd_

Buyback

__Starbucks is flaunting its confidence...__  when no one else is. Nervous companies are cancelling buybacks and dividend payments — the biggest American banks already [cancelled](https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/16/investing/bank-stock-buybacks-coronavirus/index.html) buybacks on growing concerns that the virus will hurt business and cash could be tight in the future. But for those who can swing it, buybacks are easier/cheaper when the stock price is low. Even mid-outbreak, Starbucks is optimistic in its:

- __Stores:__ Starbucks has banned sipping-in but will still let you take coffee to-go or drive thru in the USA and Canada. Also, [90%](https://stories.starbucks.com/press/2020/starbucks-hosts-virtual-annual-meeting-of-shareholders-rooted-in-caring-for-people-and-growing-its-business-responsibly/) of its China stores are now reopened.
- __Delivery:__ Its new partnership with Uber Eats will be available nationwide by end of April. Nice timing.

Starbucks is confidently BYOD'ing — buying 40M of its own shares back

☕️ Starbucks pulls a "BYOD"

__The trifecta is nearly complete...__ to fight COVID-19 and all its very real, negative fallouts. The Fed [came in hard](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/6zAABrs8yPYr7bhE4fZ3pd/articles/6uylQQIpW8xRU8cpJAiDKp) with the *monetary* policy, state/local governments are going big on *public health* policy, and now the White House might come through with a big *fiscal* policy boon — a $1T stimulus plan. The goal = Get cash into Americans' pockets when many really need it.

- __The $1T Proposal:__ The Trump admin pitched a plan to Congress to send checks directly to Americans (like a birthday check from Nana). Also included in the plan is up to __$500B__ to help small businesses and $50B to boost struggling airlines.
- __The Checks:__  The administration anticipates dropping as much as __$500B__ on two waves of direct payments (that's around $1,520 per American, if divided evenly — but probably more, since babies don't cash checks). 


__You probably want to hear more about the checks...__ The direct payments will be means-tested to make sure they don't advantage wealthier citizens. They don't include tax cut savings (also on the table). Treasury Secretary Mnuchin says the gov hopes to send the first batch out by the __end of April__. Also, the proposal still needs to pass Congress.  



_When you forget you have an Uncle named Sam_

__'Flattening the virus curve' means hurting the economy...__ More states/cities are shutting down businesses and forcing people to stay home (aka, spend less money) — then add in the [social distancing](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/6zAABrs8yPYr7bhE4fZ3pd/articles/51VEOCQwUZX0MKtynDo4MJ). All these spread-stopping steps are crucial to avoiding an *even greater* crisis – but the economy is still suffering right now. That's why it's up to government and business leaders to help it survive until the crisis passes — hopefully this stimulus can help. 

Stimulus checks are likely heading to American mailboxes

__Hands off the rolls...__ In this coronavirus-buying panic, we've focused plenty on sanitizing products like __Clorox__ (now being held safely behind the CVS sales counter along with pricey whiskey and cigarettes). While hand sanitizer sales have surged 470%, the surprise star of panic-buying is... toilet paper. From convenience stores to grocery aisles, not a roll in sight. 

- __US TP sales__ last week surged [60%](https://www.wsj.com/articles/relax-america-the-u-s-has-plenty-of-toilet-paper-11584388168) from the same time last year. Fear of not having any wipe-products is so bad that Americans are even getting on the [bidet](https://gotechdaily.com/bathroom-paper-hoarding-boosts-bidet-revenue/) bandwagon. 
- __So__ __[Kimberly-Clark](https://robinhood.com/stocks/KMB)__ (maker of Scott and Cottonelle) and __[Procter & Gamble](https://robinhood.com/stocks/PG)__ (Charmin) ramped up production to meet demand.
- __Kim will__ "[reallocate inventory](https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/17/business/toilet-paper-supply-chain-coronavirus/index.html)" (aka, use paper pulp to make more *toilet paper*, fewer *paper towels*). __TP > PT__.
- __Georgia Pacific__ has managed to ship out 20% more of its Angel Soft and Quilted Northern TP than its regular capacity. But the crazy demand is causing unnecessary strain on supply chains...

__TP-makers are asking *whyyy?*...__ Drugs stores and groceries aren't shutting down. Toilet paper will always continue to be produced/shipped.  Many TP-creating mills were already operating 24/7 before the pandemic — their capacity is fixed at "max." Producing TP is pretty easy, but it takes time to get it shipped to warehouses/retailers and then onto shelves.

_"COVID-19 means 19 rolls per day"_

Wipe

__A surge in demand isn't necessarily good...__ The TP-pocalypse may raise sales in the short-term, but:

- __No one is suddenly using/needing__ all that much more toilet paper — unlike with sanitizing products. Long-term demand for TP is unchanged. 
-  __Hoarders probably won't be restocking__ for another 4 months (if not more) — so TP companies might lose sales later on because of front-loaded buying now. 

Toilet paper hoarding: not as good for TP companies as you'd think

🧻 Toilet Paper hoarding drama

__"FTC" is becoming a solidarity slogan...__ Before mandated government shutdowns, American companies and citizens independently took initiatives to "[flatten the curve](https://www.vox.com/2020/3/10/21171481/coronavirus-us-cases-quarantine-cancellation)" of the COVID-19 outbreak — aka, reduce the number of infections so that our healthcare capacity can handle them. Most countries are taking the FTC approach: 

- __Pros:__ Social distancing and closures mean fewer infections, fewer deaths, and healthcare systems *not* overwhelmed by a dramatic spike in cases. 
- __Cons:__ The economy is devastated by biz slowdowns, the peak of the outbreak happens *later* (and dies down later), and could repeat if widespread immunity isn't developed. 
- __Bottom Line:__ The opposite approach is "[herd immunity](https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/coronavirus-pandemic-herd-immunity-uk-boris-johnson/608065/)" — allowing for a large part of the population to be infected — which risks disastrous consequences for the elderly and people with compromised health. So...

__The grassroots spirit takes hold...__ *“The health of a democratic society may be measured by the quality of functions performed by private citizens”* — Tocqueville said it, and American individuals/companies are still practicing it, decidedly acting to make flattening the curve possible:

- __Social Distancing:__ WFH has become the norm and social media is rife with self-imposed "stay home" content — risk being "social shamed" for posting a story at a bar.
- __Corporate Closures:__ __[Nike](https://robinhood.com/stocks/NKE)__, __[Lululemon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/LULU)__, __[Apple](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AAPL)__, __[Vail Resorts](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MTN)__, and other companies closed their businesses from the public before the government mandated them to do so — and __[Starbucks](https://robinhood.com/stocks/sbux)__ went takeout-only nationwide before NYC required it.


_The 3 stages of social distancing_

Protect

__FTC has us walking a very fine line...__ Small/medium sized businesses and hourly wage workers are majorly hurt in this FTC economy — no foot traffic = no sales = no work for hourly workers. [Private companies](https://abcnews.go.com/Business/companies-protect-vulnerable-hourly-workers-amid-coronavirus-outbreak/story?id=69555759) have implemented ways to soften the blow and provide relief for those who *can't afford to stay home* when they don't feel well or when their bosses tell them to:

- __[Grubhub](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GRUB)__ waived [commission fees](https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/grubhub-waives-commission-fees-restaurants) (which can be as much as 30%) for many mom & pop restaurants that are suffering right now.
- __[Darden Restaurants](https://robinhood.com/stocks/DRI)__ is providing paid sick leave for all its hourly workers who weren't covered.
- __[Starbucks](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SBUX)__ announced a financial support solution for any US baristas who may have been exposed to the virus — __[Lyft](https://robinhood.com/stocks/LYFT)__ is also doing this for drivers.

The FTC Economy (“Flatten The Curve”) is led by private biz in a big way

__Like a slasher film...__ But with interest rates. The Fed's yanked out all the stops in its financial medicine arsenal. On March 3, the nation's central bank doled out the first [emergency rate cut](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/4AwsSxWJqQcb7mwqnA5uyv/articles/6o35WJ1AbtsqVtjvTzwoip/) since the '08 financial crisis. On Sunday, it cut interest rates to [near 0%](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/15/federal-reserve-cuts-rates-to-zero-and-launches-massive-700-billion-quantitative-easing-program.html) and announced it's dropping $700B on long-term bonds. Here's what the Fed wants:

- __Interest rates to fall:__ So that you'll spend on stocks/stuff and take out loans rather than hoarding your money in an interest-bearing savings account, bonds, or under mattresses.... So it lowered rates to almost 0%. 
- __More money to flow:__ So that banks have enough to give/lend to you (so that you can spend).... So it's dropping $700B to buy Treasury and mortgage-backed securities, which flushes the financial system with more freshly printed cash for banks. 
- __More cash__ = *less demand for cash* = lower interest rates to borrow cash = more loans. That last one could save struggling companies and help kickstart an economic recovery. 

__But the Fed is fighting a different beast...__ The COVID-19 pandemic. It's trying to prevent the virus from causing a financial crisis — but investors are looking for *medical* solutions, not *monetary* ones.

__There's only so much the Fed can do...__ And it's already done it. With all these drastic measures, the Fed has run out of rockets in its economic bazooka. Now it's up to Congress and the White House to help with changes in taxes and spending to help the consumers and small businesses seriously squeezed by the econ shutdown. This might include government [bailouts](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/2N4J8I3LVoH4TJ41Xmtvys/articles/3lDtbIu8ObEgNzjo0WqhvE/) for struggling industries (reportedly, [airlines](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/16/coronavirus-stimulus-white-house-grapples-with-which-industries-deserve-aid.html) could be first).

The Fed slashed interest rates to almost 0% — what does this mean, and will it help?

__Wait, he said what?...__ __[Alphabet](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GOOGL)__'s [reaction](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/16/alphabet-verily-coronavirus-screening-website-is-overloaded.html) to Friday's press conference when President Trump talked up [Project Baseline](https://www.projectbaseline.com/study/covid-19/), Google's initiative to point people who are COVID-19-worried in the right direction. With the President's public support and the Google parent's huge tech and financial resources, Project Baseline could be big for diagnosing COVID-19:

- __The company:__ __Verily__ is Alphabet's life sciences "Other Bet." It was created in Google's X Lab as a moonshot/save-the-world project. Now, it gets its big moment.
- __The goal:__ Screen people for COVID-19 by asking about symptoms, then pointing them in the right direction. If one user says "I have a belly ache," Project Baseline says it's not COVID-19. If another says "I have a fever and cough," it might suggest a local testing facility.
- __The catch:__ You need to login with a Google account and agree to share your data. 
- __BTW:__ This only launched for the Bay Area yesterday — they'll need to  [increase capacity](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/16/technology/coronavirus-testing-website-google.html) before expanding (not taking more appointments for now).

__In South Korea and China, the authorities have apps tracking infected people...__ Verily isn't proposing that, but it insists on being able to share your data with authorities. *Claaaassic* Privacy vs. Security tradeoff. Giving Google your health data may seem scary, but letting COVID-19 spread is scarier.

Track

__This could be Google's opportunity to get into healthcare...__ America's personal health data literally sits in paper files in filing cabinets. That's painful for Google to see after indexing the entire internet. Project Baseline is Google's moment to capture health records on millions of Americans. And it's made other major health-data moves lately:

- __Google acquired Fitbit for $2.1B__ to get your pulse while you're running.
- __And Google invested in One Medical__, the tech-forward healthcare chain that looks more like an Equinox gym than a doctor's office.

Google launches a Trump-endorsed COVID-19 screening website

 🏡 "Flatten the curve" = containment  

__Welp, that escalated quickly…__ Wall Street prides itself on predicting risks and opportunities quicker than everybody else. Two weeks ago, it predicted doom as markets suffered their [worst week](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/13Kjjb7pbjXOtqOU67uiLC/articles/KV9dc34Htz2Vvddr7goxf) since 2008. Then, things got worse:

1. __COVID 19 shut down the world’s economy:__ It’s officially a global pandemic and a National Emergency in the US. Some European countries have closed businesses except for food, health, and banks. 
2. __Oil markets crashed:__ “Anyone can die in a freak, gasoline accident.” -- *Saudi Arabia to Russia*. The two oil-rich countries fighting about how much oil to pump triggered the [biggest 1-day drop](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/2yAve6xSRhLRA5umV930FV/articles/58PLs0oCRQ6EX1n9oXxhoN) in oil prices since the 1991 Persian Gulf War.

__Stocks fly together (downward)…__ When economies and markets get shaken by something as far-reaching as a pandemic, investors tend to hit the “sell” button as indiscriminately as a “down for anything” Tinder user swipes right. 

- __The winners:__ Some businesses stand to benefit from extended Work From Home and a growing "[sanitize-it-all](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prepare/prevention.html)" trend.
- __The losers:__ *Everyone else.* Many expect an economic [recession](https://learn.robinhood.com/articles/53OOO3JQFf0Sqo5g0t4O5F/what-is-a-recession/) has already started (recessions = 6 straight months of economic shrinkage). FYI, the last one in the US ended in June of '09. *Shrinking economy ➡️ shrinking profits ➡️ shrinking stock prices*.

_With markets in crisis mode, we're in this fight together_

Crash

__What goes up, must come down (and vice versa)...__ Each “bull market” is followed by a “bear market”, and [versa vice](https://learn.robinhood.com/articles/3i6hIwhY75uWjZUZiLFTFT/what-are-bull-and-bear-markets/) — it’s like a see-saw with giant duffle bags of money sliding back and forth. 

- __Bull markets:__ Once stocks __rise 20% overall__ from the last low, it’s called a “[bull market](https://learn.robinhood.com/articles/3i6hIwhY75uWjZUZiLFTFT/what-are-bull-and-bear-markets/)”, which tends to include economic growth and falling unemployment.
- __Bear markets:__ Last week stocks fell past the “[bear market](https://learn.robinhood.com/articles/3i6hIwhY75uWjZUZiLFTFT/what-are-bull-and-bear-markets/)” threshold, meaning we’d __dropped over 20%__ since February’s record highs. This tends to bring economic shrinkage and rising unemployment.
- __Yo-Yo Mountain:__ Wealth advisers generally recommend not timing the market's ups/downs because they're  hard to predict. Over the past nine decades, stocks overall have risen [about 10%](https://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/18/the-sp-500-has-already-met-its-average-return-for-a-full-year.html) per year on average. It's like a long hike up a mountain with a yo-yo going up-and-down, but the mountain's [overall slope](https://www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500-historical-chart-data) rises.

Policymakers enter crisis mode on COVID-19 as markets crash

- __Pregame hosted over Zoom...__ Shares of video conferencing company __[Zoom](https://robinhood.com/stocks/ZM)__ have soared 63% in 3 months. As meetings turn virtual and WFH goes standard, more companies are Zooming (it earned verb status) — its quarterly sales jumped 78% from the year before. Wednesday was Zoom's [biggest download day ever](https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexkonrad/2020/03/13/zoom-video-coronavirus-eric-yuan-schools/#3a2405554e71). Now it's offering videoconferencing to K-12 schools [for free](https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/03/14/zoom-is-helping-schools-closing-due-coronavirus-fo.aspx) as classes move online.  

-  __Groupies wanted...__ __[Pepsi](https://robinhood.com/stocks/PEP)__ splurged [almost $4B](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/2N4J8I3LVoH4TJ41Xmtvys/articles/7MwIKLPyFE9qMQ5p4isrVU/) on energy drink throwback __Rockstar__, which Pepsi has distributed since '09. Big Bev has been shifting to "functional beverages" — think low-cal energy drinks, hard kombucha, CBD-infused liquid, and anything you drink "for a reason" besides just hydration or the alcohol. So instead of wasting years and $$$ to build up its own brand to rival Rockstar, Pepsi now owns the #3 energy functional bev ASAP. 

- __Terrible time to be 'Sassy and Gassy'...__ Oil prices took their [biggest plunge](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/2yAve6xSRhLRA5umV930FV/articles/58PLs0oCRQ6EX1n9oXxhoN/) since '91, dropping 24% last Monday. Part of that is coronavirus-reduced travel demand. The rest is reality show-worthy OPEC drama: Saudi Arabia wanted Russia to cut oil production to boost prices of their precious export. But Russia refused (reportedly, to hurt US oil producers). So Saudi jacked up its production, dropping oil prices even further. Since then, __[Exxon Mobil](https://robinhood.com/stocks/XOM)__ stock is down 21% and __[Occidental Petroleum](https://robinhood.com/stocks/OXY)__ fell 53%.


- __Despite your current WFH lifestyle...__ work messaging service __[Slack](https://robinhood.com/stocks/WORK)__ isn't doing as well as its "stay-at-home" peers (like Zoom). Shares dropped 20% after Slack's earnings [revealed](https://www.businessinsider.com/slacks-earnings-q4-2020-slowing-growth-guidance-2020-3) it's growing slower than investors expected. The problem is that it simply takes way longer to implement Slack than Zoom (think salespeople, contracts, IT integrations, and learning curves teaching Bruce what "channels" are). So Slack's experiencing some "opportunity blockage" — like the [Baby Yoda toy](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/GptbTfH3TGCsKNYjP48YR/articles/4Dxd9TfAdmR3vc02BBEdSw) situation.