__*Stop trying to make Fitch happen*...__ __[Abercrombie & Fitch](https://robinhood.com/stocks/ANF)__ stock (yep, that's a thing) jumped after its earnings [beat](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/24/abercrombie-fitch-anf-earnings-q3-2020.html) Wall Street's expectations. You probably remember Abercrombie as the place where you took pictures with shirtless "models" as a middle schooler, or bought hoodies for your foreign cousin. Abercrombie stock has plunged 70% from its 2008 peak, but is up nearly 30% this week. How the moose performed last quarter: 

- __Online sales jumped 43%__, and made up nearly half of total sales in the past 12 months. 
- __Overall sales fell 5%,__ but Abercrombie managed to notch a $42M profit after cutting store and distribution expenses.

__Smells like Abercrombie in here...__ but that's an illusion. Abercrombie's sub-brand Hollister actually made up [58%](https://abercrombieandfitchcompany.gcs-web.com/static-files/70b4c209-b1a5-45fc-a1c3-f394d3ad06b3) of total sales last quarter. Hollister is the beach bum California cousin to Abercrombie's East Coast college bro. Hollister's *sub*-sub-brand Gilly Hicks boosted demand, thanks to its WFH-friendly loungewear and bralettes. Other winning sub-brands:

- __Aerie__ sales soared 34% last quarter and it posted record profits, while parent brand __[American Eagle](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AEO)__'s sales fell 11%.
- __Free People__ was __[Urban Outfitter's](https://robinhood.com/stocks/URBN)__ best-performing division last quarter and makes up over 20% of Urban's sales.
- __Old Navy__ makes up over half of __[Gap](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GPS)__'s sales.  


_Years of posing outside Abercrombie paid off_

Model

__Sub-brands are secret growth sauce...__ These "secret" subs are pulling in more $$$ and performing better than their parents. Sub-brands help companies tap into new customer segments — think Victoria's Secret PINK (casual/teen-friendly) vs. full-on sexy VS. Companies can apply learnings from their subs to help the parent — just like American Eagle intro’d new loungewear to mimic Aerie. 


Abercrombie and American Eagle win on "the brand behind the brand"

__Crispiest company name yet...__ __Toast__ is what you're using to pay for your chicken gyro at the local Greek place (don't forget to tap 20% tip). Toast's point-of-sale software and hardware is made specifically for restaurants — so it got extra burnt in 2020:

- __The Good:__ Toast's sales more than doubled in 2019 as tens of thousands of new eateries signed up. 
- __The Bad:__ When lockdowns hit in March, Toast's restaurant sales fell 80% in most markets. 
- __The Ugly:__ In April, Toast laid off half its employees (1.3K people) as restaurants shuttered. 

__Think fast...__ Toast was expected to be a big pandemic loser, but it quickly pivoted from its dine-in focus to a takeout focus. It added pandemic-friendly services like: delivery, online ordering, e-gift cards, and loans to cash-strapped eateries. It gave its customers a month of free access to digital services, helping them bounce back from dine-in closures.

- __The Comeback:__ Toast is now [reportedly](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/23/restaurant-tech-start-up-toast-worth-8-billion-in-employee-share-sale.html) valued at $8B, up from its $4.9B valuation in pre-lockdown February.


__Businesses want a Swiss Army knife solution...__ The more "all-in-one" a product is, the better. Restaurants don’t want different companies handling each business function. That's why: in addition to payment processing, Toast offers everything from sales reports, to inventory management, and payroll. Its publicly-traded rival __[Square](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SQ)__ also flaunts an all-in-one product — and its stock has more than tripled in value this year. 


Dine-tech startup Toast pulls off a pandemic pivot (and nearly doubles in value)

Dow Jones

S&P 500

Nasdaq

Bitcoin

🦌 Abercrombie's sub-brand secret

__What's next, FleetTok?...__ Last week, __[Twitter](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TWTR)__ copied __[Snap](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SNAP)__'s Stories feature with Fleets (only four years after __[Facebook](https://robinhood.com/stocks/FB)__ copied it). ICYMI: Pinterest, LinkedIn, and YouTube *also* have Stories. And of course, Facebook/Insta also copied Snap's AR Filters (avocado crown FTW). Now, Snap is doing some copy-catting of its own with its new "Spotlight" tab.

- __This TikTok-like section of Snapchat__ serves up viral vertical videos (we're calling it: "Three Vs" content). You basically just scroll up endlessly with no escape.
- __The "Three Vs" = TikTok's not-so-secret sauce__. Viral vertical videos, paired with ridiculously addictive algorithms, helped TikTok [grow](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/24/tiktok-reveals-us-global-user-growth-numbers-for-first-time.html) from 11M US users in January 2018 to over 100M today.

__Not so Renegade, Renegade...__ Copying popular features is standard MO for social apps. And Facebook has been *aggressively* pushing vertical videos on its Tok-competitor "Reels." But Snap is doing Three Vs a bit differently:

- __Cash Giveaways:__ Snap [will](https://www.theverge.com/2020/11/23/21585513/snapchat-snap-spotlight-creators-app-update-tiktok) divvy up $1M between the most popular video creators *each day* for the rest of 2020. It's all based on views from that day. 
- __Viral For All:__ TikTok and Reels also shell out $$$ to [incentivize](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/4yRCnrt1kOAxQVj9ebbA6A/articles/49twGAQ1xwjOPMpozJPT4H/) creators, but they're more geared toward famous influencers. Snap [says](https://www.snap.com/en-US/news) you don't need a public account or a big following to make it on Spotlight.


_America's Next Top TikTok Copycat is..._

__This is new (complicated) territory for Snap...__ Before, users could only see snaps posted by friends or by publishers in the Discover tab — there was no "going viral on Snap." But with all the scrutiny around viral misinformation and hate speech on Facebook and Twitter, Snap is moving into moderation-heavy (and risky) territory. That's probably why it *isn't allowing comments* on Spotlight videos.


Snap is the latest to copy TikTok with "Spotlight" — it's all about "The Three Vs"

__'Twas the Lizzo IPO...__ __[Warner Music](https://robinhood.com/stocks/WMG)__ went public back in June as the [first](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/7nl8PEIlFGFKKefr2SL0WW/articles/17mpc7qzjYTjiqKsbEygwD/) pure-play music stock of the record label "three-oply": Warner Music, __Universal Music__, and __Sony Music__ (say "music" again). Warner signs artists, then markets and monetizes their tunes. Stars include: Lizzo, Ed Sheeran, and Cardi B. 

- __Concerts aren't happening,__ so Warner lost on tour services and merch. Buuuut: Warner's full-year earnings were essentially the same as its record-breaking 2019.
- __Music streaming made up for it.__ Warner negotiates with streamers to get paid on listens. Digital sales were up 15% last quarter on the stream-palooza, offsetting losses from the pandemic-hit side of its business. 

__When Bruno's on pandemic vacay...__ He's not dropping that 24K Magic. Before going public, Warner noted that the "absence of superstar releases" was one of the biggest risks to its biz. Its roster is stocked with Led Zeppelin and Madonna tunes, but the big money comes from *new* albums. Fresh hits from artists like Dua Lipa made up for the silence from stars like Bruno Mars. 


__Warner reflects the winners/losers of the pandemic...__  The __[Spotify](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SPOT)__ streaming side of Warner's biz is thriving, just like Spotify — the live touring side of the business is hurting, just like __[Live Nation](https://robinhood.com/stocks/LYV)__. Warner's partnerships with pandemic thrivers like __[Facebook](https://robinhood.com/stocks/FB)__, __TikTok__, and __[Snap](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SNAP)__ are [growing](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4391074-warner-music-group-corp-s-wmg-ceo-stephen-cooper-on-q4-2020-results-earnings-call-transcript) sales even *faster* than subscription streaming. Warner also hinted it's exploring new opportunities with pandemic winners like __Twitch__ (live-streamed concerts) and __[Peloton](https://robinhood.com/stocks/PTON)__ (licensing). 


Warner Music thrives on streaming, loses on concerts (it's a tale of two businesses)

 👻 Snap TikToks itself (bold move)

__Save us, Gal...__ Theaters' holiday season rests in the hands of Wonder Woman Gal Gadot — aka, Princess of Themyscira (where everyone has an Israeli accent). __[AT&T](https://robinhood.com/stocks/T)__-owned Warner Bros. is [releasing](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/18/media/wonder-woman-1984-hbo-max/index.html) "Wonder Woman 1984" on HBO Max *and* in theaters on Christmas Day. We've seen studios sending movies straight to streaming (__Universal__ with "Trolls" and __[Disney](https://robinhood.com/stocks/DIS)__ with "Mulan") — but we've never quite seen this bold dual strategy. 

- __Warner learned its lesson with "Tenet."__ It bravely [insisted](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/8rq6xjStVvulqFP5BMmt0/articles/b8XbOfc5reKyOjOrvsVdC/) on a theatrical release for the Christopher Nolan blockbuster, but has only grossed $350M worldwide  — not enough to cover production + marketing costs.
- __It's a win for HBO Max.__ Warner's streamer has [brought](https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/22/media/hbo-max-subscriber-numbers/index.html) in a respectable 8.6M subscribers since its May launch  — but it's still far behind Disney+ (73M subs) and __[Netflix](https://robinhood.com/stocks/NFLX)__ (195M subs).

__The beginning of the end...__ of the "theatrical window." That's the period  a movie has to be exclusively in theaters before home viewing release. __[AMC](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMC)__ already [slashed](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/6RFtJk3mnCKOO7aaL4NeV/articles/5k77brddXY731lGleLUGG4/) the window from 75 days to just 17 days for Universal films shown at its theaters. Last week, Universal [struck](https://www.goerie.com/story/entertainment/movies/2020/11/22/universal-cinemark-strike-deal-how-long-movies-stay-theaters/6327081002/) another deal with __[Cinemark](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CNK)__, shortening its window from three months to as little as 17 days, too.

_On her way to (maybe) save movie theaters_

__This will be a big test for theaters...__ AMC, the world's largest theater chain, said it'll run out of cash soon without financial rescuing. 83% of its US theaters have reopened, but attendance is down ~85% — capacity is limited, and most blockbusters have been pushed to 2021 (cough, Disney). Meanwhile, Regal Cinemas is [reportedly](https://www.wsj.com/articles/regal-cinemas-owner-in-talks-for-rescue-package-to-weather-theater-shutdowns-11605823165) looking for a lifeline to avoid bankruptcy. "Wonder Woman” will test how love for the magic theater experience stacks up against streaming.

Movie theaters' fate partly rests on Wonder Woman's (mixed) release

__*And I think it's gonna be Elon, lon time*...__ 2020 keeps getting better for Rocket Man. Fresh off a historic SpaceX launch, Elon received an S&P 500 Club invite. __[Tesla](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TSLA)__ will [join](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/rQUWmLLXMpM5qdWBv9Eap/articles/2HouhgfCwSO1yiJ7D7X3Dj/) the famous [S&P 500](https://learn.robinhood.com/articles/7kFFEUv46vmMCmMfLuNiRX/what-is-the-s-and-p-500/) index on December 21st. It tracks the stocks of the 500 most valuable US public companies — and over $11T is invested in S&P-tracking funds. Fund managers will now have to buy Tesla stock, helping shares jump 20% for the week. But skeptics think the volatile stock could bring risk to the entire index.

__The limit does not exist...__ to how many times you can retile the bathroom. Based on these recent home improvement earnings, the "House Hype" is *still* strong (going on four quarters now). __[Home Depot](https://robinhood.com/stocks/HD)__’s same-store US sales [jumped](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/20/home-depot-and-lowes-earnings-boosted-by-pandemic-induced-nesting.html) 25% last quarter, and __[Lowe's](https://robinhood.com/stocks/LOW)__ soared 30%. You were probably ordering your Peacock Blue paint online and picking up curbside — Home Depot's digital sales rose 80%, and Lowe's more than doubled. Even anti-online rebel __[TJX](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TJX)__ is [launching](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/62YXgFm2Y4dLxSTclXVyFa/articles/11N7Wk35vpjrMJatHK3j5V) an ecommerce site for its HomeGoods chain.

Highs

Who's up...

__Zzzs don't grow on trees...__ neither does foam for __[Casper](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CSPR)__. The direct-to-consumer mattress company's sales fell 3% last quarter, even though time spent in bed increased infinity%. Casper saw [record](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/6f9hTxnuMnb4G0Vl1fQwPq/articles/3z0smVK5BdSSxHZCpxiYqd) website traffic, aka record interest in its products. But mattresses were out-of-stock for weeks at a time due to supply chain shortages, so it couldn't cash in on demand. __[Purple](https://robinhood.com/stocks/PRPL)__, which controls its own supply chain, saw sales jump 60%. Casper stock plunged 18% for the week and is down by over half this year, while Purple has more than 3X'd.

__Darth Bezos strikes again...__  __[Amazon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMZN)__'s e-Pharmacy [dropped](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/54qEy7poaQltD2SG2mPMOY/articles/DOTr2WznNUgU3l27G2WGD/) this week, offering Prime members free two-day shipping and savings benefits on prescription meds. The Zon has over 110M US Prime members — that's a major "code red" to OG pharmacies, which sell hundreds of billions in prescription meds each year. For the week: __[Walgreens](https://robinhood.com/stocks/WBA)__ stock dropped 12%, and __[CVS](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CVS)__ fell 6%. __[GoodRx](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GDRX)__ plunged 18% since it's the "Expedia of prescription drugs" — Amazon's steep discounts threaten its entire value prop.


Lows

...and who's down

🍿 Wonder Woman's theatrical plot twist

__New app, who dis?...__ Google Pay just went from something you use when you forget your credit card to a padded money app. Five years after launching, Pay has a whopping ~150M users in 30 countries. The revamped app rolled out in the US this week. It's a three-tab story:

- __Pay:__ Tap-to-pay, peer-to-peer payments, and searchable transaction history. Google says it won't sell data or share it for ad targeting.
- __Explore:__ Shows rewards and discounts at shops. If you allow Pay to analyze your transactions, it'll also show personalized offers. Because Google doesn't know enough. 
- __Insights:__ Lets you connect your bank accounts for a spending overview, like __Mint__. You can even let Pay crawl your Gmail and Google Photos to find receipts (techy, *not* creepy).

__But wait, there's more...__ In order to make sure it's in direct competition with every other money app: Google said it'll partner with banks to offer online checking and savings accounts in 2021. But the focus is Venmo-style payments and bill-splitting — Google's betting the "network effect" of peer-to-peer will take Pay to the next level.


__Financial apps want all of you...__ Google Pay wants to achieve "all-in-one" app status, and so do other fintechs. They start with one thing, then expand.

- __Venmo__ started with peer-to-peer, now it has a debit card.
- __Cash App__ started with peer-to-peer, now it does investing.
- __Robinhood__ started with investing, now it has Cash Management (disclosure: Robinhood Snacks is owned by... Robinhood).
- __Chase__ started with banking, now it shows your credit journey.

Google goes full Venmo+, turning Pay into a franken-app for money

__Finding a $30 Michael Kors bag...__ under a pile of prom dresses. Discount legend __[TJX](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TJX)__ is the company behind the "affordable splurge" trifecta: TJ Maxx, Marshalls, HomeGoods. In June, TJX's CEO made a bold corona-conomy statement: "*Nothing will change*." He [said](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/2iRXx4Lo0sb4Xj39ZUGriE/articles/5k1guEZaA7mTcZAjnmvyLE/) TJX would continue to pass on ramping up online shopping, which made up just 2% of its sales.

- __TJX was set on *not* using ecommerce.__ It even shut down its websites while stores were closed. Fast-forward to November...
- __TJX is launching an ecommerce platform__ for HomeGoods, since store traffic is slow. But it's not dropping its rebellious anti-ecommerce persona...

__Treasure Hunt = still #1...__ TJX's CEO says customers still want to "feel the fabric" (beautiful). The new site is meant to complement and encourage *in*-store shopping. Shoppers love the "treasure hunt" — the joyful feeling of accomplishment after finding a $40 James Perse sweater after hours of rifling. The HomeGoods site is an *extra* way to ride the "House Hype" wave. 


_TJ Maxx's national treasure hunt_

Hunt

__For some, ecommerce is a "nice-to-have"...__ for others — like __[Lululemon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/LULU)__ — it's a make-or-break [necessity](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/7FZzguUiD8aLKkREx4vy4F/articles/26yFoNKojWP5qIVWabOU6Q/). TJX's same-store sales dipped only 5% last quarter, despite it having basically no online presence. It made $867M in profit  — more than it earned in the same quarter *last* year, and way more than the $887M it *lost* when stores were closed. __[Ross](https://robinhood.com/stocks/ROST)__ is also ecommerce-avoidant, and it [crushed](https://www.barrons.com/articles/ross-stores-stock-earnings-crush-expectations-51605823103) earnings expectations last quarter.


Anti-online rebel TJ Maxx launches an ecommerce platform 

💰 Google goes full Venmo+  

__Elon time coming...__ __[Tesla](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TSLA)__ will join the S&P 500 index on December 21st, after posting five consecutive profitable quarters. Tesla [became](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/6511HaDUMXpAxjp2bEBL6w/articles/30QY0VGpvgwP9J9BKSTkLB) eligible to join the famous index in July, after notching four straight profitable quarters for the first time in its 17-year history.

- __[The S&P 500](https://learn.robinhood.com/articles/7kFFEUv46vmMCmMfLuNiRX/what-is-the-s-and-p-500/) tracks the stocks of the 500 most valuable__ US public companies. People use it as an indicator for how the overall market is doing and can invest in S&P-tracking funds.
- __Tesla's set to become the most valuable company to *ever* join__, and will likely be the 7th largest S&P company by [market value](https://learn.robinhood.com/articles/GByCbiOluG2kcWs1AF6m5/what-is-market-capitalization/), right above Walmart (whoa).

__Welcome to Club 500...__ Over $11T is invested in mutual funds and [ETFs](https://learn.robinhood.com/articles/QkpPOCYYd2fMe76837dvG/what-is-an-exchange-traded-fund) that track the S&P 500. These funds are kind of like investment "smoothies," made up of a blend of different stocks instead of fruit (though Apple works both ways). Fund managers will now have to buy Tesla stock for their S&P smoothie, so shares have jumped 19% on the news. But these joining rallies (if they even happen) [don't](https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-teslas-addition-to-the-s-p-500-means-for-investors-11605631435) necessarily last long. 


_Elon getting ready to attend the S&P 500 Ball_

Welcome

__Tesla could shake up the S&P...__ The bigger a company's market value, the more weight it carries in the Club. That's why __Apple__, __Microsoft__, __Amazon__, __Google__, and __Facebook__ make up a whopping ~26% of the index. Tesla's market value is *double* __[Toyota's](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TM)__, even though Toyota delivered 30X more cars last year. Some analysts point to Tesla's profit-streak and record 140K deliveries last quarter as signs of maturity. But skeptics say the historically volatile stock could bring risk to the entire index. 


Tesla is joining the S&P 500 Club — we're looking at what it means for investors

__Hmmmm...__ You'd think eight months of being cooped up at home would lead to a baby boom, but experts are actually [predicting](https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-covid-baby-bust-is-bad-news-for-these-businesses-11605522600?mod=business_lead_pos5) a baby *bust*. They think the corona-conomy will lead to majorly declining birth rates. 

- __Brookings estimates US births could shrink__ by as much as 500K next year, more than 10X last year's drop (and they're already at record lows). 
- __That's bad news__ for Gerber-owner __[Nestlé](https://robinhood.com/stocks/NSRGY)__, Pampers-owner __[Procter & Gamble](https://robinhood.com/stocks/PG)__, and Huggies owner __[Kimberly-Clark](https://robinhood.com/stocks/KMB)__ (yes, the TP dispenser one). 

__Designer Diapér...__ We're nine months out from the first lockdowns, so baby businesses are strategizing. As births have slowed in the US and China over the years, consumer giants have shifted focus to premium baby items. Parents are having fewer kids, but they're spending *more* on them.

- __Kimberly-Clark__ intro'd plant-based, paraben-free Huggies that cost 5X more than the cheapest diaper (#fashion).
- __P&G__ is selling pricier Pampers that fit like pants (the khakis of diapers). It also [partnered](https://www.bizjournals.com/cincinnati/news/2019/07/19/p-g-launching-smart-diapers-with-help-fromgoogle.html) with Google for app-connected smart diapers.
- __Nestlé__ launched a fancy infant milk powder in June (basically oat milk). 


Bust

__When the pie shrinks, raise the price...__ The baby market is shrinking, so companies are testing how much *remaining* customers are willing to pay. To make up for sales drops, they're raising prices — like Apple did with the $1,450 iPhone in 2019. How do they justify that? By upscaling products with fancier features. No one needs a four-eyed phone or a cloud-connected diaper. But companies don't care, as long as people will pay.

With a pandemic Baby Bust looming, Huggies and Pampers go fancy-pantsy

🔑 Tesla joins the S&P 500 Club 

__*It's hereeee*...__ Amazon Pharmacy. Two years ago, __[Amazon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMZN)__ acquired PillPack for $1B. Pharmacies were shook, but not as shook as they were yesterday when: the Zon launched an online pharmacy, built off PillPack's biz. Starting this week, people in 45 US states can send their prescriptions to Amazon and order meds. 

- __Prime members get__ free two-day shipping and savings benefits (up to 80% off generic and 40% off brand-name meds). *And* a savings card to use at  50K pharmacies.
- __Non-Primers get__ free 5-day delivery (and a whole lot of pop-ups to join Prime). Amazon's accepting most forms of insurance, but you can pay without.

__"Code red!"...__ Overhead at CVS corporate. Amazon's entering a massive market — nearly half of Americans [take](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-08/nearly-one-in-two-americans-takes-prescription-drugs-survey) prescription drugs. In 2018, pharmacies sold [$336B](https://www.wsj.com/articles/amazon-com-adds-prescription-medicine-options-to-its-site-11605613679?mod=hp_lead_pos6) worth of prescription meds. But Amazon has over [110M](https://fortune.com/2020/01/16/amazon-prime-subscriptions/) US Prime members, which could make its ePharmacy seem more convenient (and cheaper). That's why:

- __[CVS](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CVS) and [Walgreens](https://robinhood.com/stocks/WBA) shares dropped__ 9% yesterday, and __[Rite Aid](https://robinhood.com/stocks/RAD)__ plunged 16%.
- __[GoodRx](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GDRX) stock fell__ 23% since [it's](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/4SQQIJGVDV1ZMsRwO23SPV/articles/231DSeRmMIaG6mxLu3tUCS/) "the Expedia of prescription drugs."
- __[Walmart](https://robinhood.com/stocks/WMT) stock dipped__ 2% — despite strong earnings yesterday — because it has a healthcare biz.  

e-Pill

__Brick-and-mortar could save pharmacies...__ CVS and Walgreens each have 10K+ locations across the US, and they're expanding on-site healthcare to offer what Amazon *can't*. Walgreens [dropped](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/6hhuCOY10qHk7z0tNQJNYE/articles/5aYSlp1wVeRDxLaMBqz3MY/) $1B to open hundreds of doctors offices, CVS is opening 1.5K "HealthHUBs," and Walmart offers on-site care — all to make buying prescription meds more convenient. Then again:  telehealth has surged, and Amazon's discounts could be worth a two-day wait.

Amazon launches an online pharmacy, making CVS and Walgreens stock quake

__Calm down...__ __Airbnb__ got some inspo from Genesis as it prepped its IPO [filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1559720/000119312520294801/d81668ds1.htm), kicking off its origin story with "*In the beginning...*" The home-sharing giant [plans](https://www.wsj.com/articles/airbnb-ipo-filing-shows-profitable-quarter-after-deep-cuts-11605564419?mod=business_lead_pos13) to go public in December under ticker symbol ABNB (STAY and CASA were too edgy). 

- __Spring quarter:__ Airbnb lost nearly $600M, almost double what it lost during the same time last year. 
- __Summer quarter:__ Airbnb made a $219M *profit* last quarter, despite sales falling 18%. 

__Nespresso machine en suite...__ 5 stars. Investors are giving Airbnb some credit. Earlier this year, Airbnb's valuation plunged to $18B as it took out high-interest loans to [cover](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/78so4bt9Fa85LcklanAFSB/articles/4O5kJlEPHTgzTTN70wvPrp/) guest refunds and $250M for hosts' losses. Then it majorly turned its desperate fate around, filed to IPO, and is expected to notch a $30B valuation. 

- __The "work from anywhere" trend__ helped, as people seeked less bedroom-like pastures. Airbnb focused on small towns after noticing an uptick in local stays.
- __Brutal cost-slashing__ was also key to the comeback — Airbnb sadly laid off 25% of its employees. It also shed noncore businesses and halved exec pay.


_Forgot the code for the Nasdaq check-in_

__Airbnb needs to think like Uber (not like Lyft)...__ Airbnb is just a sharing platform for *homes*, like Lyft is just a ride-hailing platform. Meanwhile, Uber has [become](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/1D3tkm10PGnxrVOWgEDFKP/articles/4elR6MraWRLDXQoo2e4Q99/) a platform to transport *anything* — from food, to cargo, to meds. If Airbnb becomes an "anything-sharing" platform  (think: parking spaces, storage, boats, RVs) it could protect itself from pandemic pain — it warned that the recent COVID surge could bruise bookings this quarter. 


Airbnb files to go public and reveals a profit in its big turnaround quarter

💊 Amazon launches an ePharmacy

__When you get a 90% on the test…__ and your friend immediately mentions they got a 95%. Last week, __[Pfizer](https://robinhood.com/stocks/PFE)__ and __[BioNTech](https://robinhood.com/stocks/BNTX)__ [announced](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/5gdq4YMCKXJLFy9oXr6lUV/articles/0CzIbmfTQ6Qo8bhIShm43) that their COVID-19 vaccine was more than 90% effective in final-stage trials (huge). *Yesterday*, __[Moderna](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MRNA)__ [said](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/16/moderna-says-its-coronavirus-vaccine-is-more-than-94percent-effective.html) its vaccine was more than *94%* effective, according to early results (huge-er). Moderna's vax is also easier to store, temperature-wise. But how soon could a vax get approved and start shipping?

- __Moderna plans to request emergency FDA approval__ by early December. Pfizer could seek emergency use authorization this month.
- __If Moderna gets the greenlight,__ it could start distributing in December with 20M doses ready to ship by end of year.
- __Potato, not potatoe:__ Pfizer is a 170-year-old pharma with 300+ drugs on the market. Moderna's a 10-year-old biotech that has [never](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/79biJunQ8AVseCaSA7jDwV/articles/3Kiqd7olgKIOuHwvy3lMeJ/) sold a single drug. 

__But they have one thing in common...__ Moderna and Pfizer both have mRNA vaccines, which [are](https://www.phgfoundation.org/briefing/rna-vaccines) faster and cheaper to make than traditional vaccines — but have never been approved for human use. Both have said they're planning to sell *for* profit, while some traditional vax frontrunners like __[AstraZeneca](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AZN)__ pledged to initially sell "at cost" (no profit). But Pharma isn’t the only industry that could be poised to profit...


_The big checkmate_

Distribute

__Logistics companies could benefit (big)...__ Distributing the vaccine will be a massive undertaking,  and airlines and shipping companies will likely be key to that. Providing a single dose to 7.8B people will require 8K __[Boeing](https://robinhood.com/stocks/BA)__ 747 cargo planes.  __[Delta](https://robinhood.com/stocks/DAL)__ and __[UPS](https://robinhood.com/stocks/UPS)__ are already [gearing](https://www.aviationpros.com/airlines/news/21160506/ups-delta-prepare-for-covid19-vaccine-shipments) up by expanding their cooling facilities for vaccine storage/shipment. Pharma products are one of the most profitable cargo types, so this could be a huge financial opportunity. 


Moderna makes big vax news, and logistics companies could benefit

__Googling: "How long can human go on 4 hours sleep"...__ Don't worry, __[Casper](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CSPR)__'s right there with ya. The direct-to-consumer mattress company was a unicorn before it went public back in February. Now its valuation has [dropped](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/6kMejLjAW3nUadbqAQTFJW/articles/3clvgCbPhDFEgLE19oIZVu/) from $1.1B to just over $250M (quarter-corn?). Casper lost more sleep yesterday when its stock plunged 14% after [earnings](https://ir.casper.com/news-and-events/news/news-details/2020/Casper-Reports-Third-Quarter-2020-Results/default.asp).

- __Casper's sales fell__ 3%, even though time spent in bed probably increased 1,000% (#work-from-bed). And it's still dreaming of profit. Buuut...
- __Casper saw record website traffic__ last quarter, pointing to record interest in its mattresses. People were browsing Casper.com to upgrade their  takeout-in-bed game.

__Sounds counterintuitive....__ But it makes sense. Casper's sales fail wasn't due to weak demand, but to weak *supply*. Many mattresses were out-of-stock for weeks at a time, meaning Casper couldn't ship out enough to meet demand. Casper blamed supply chain challenges like fabric and foam chemical shortages. It should really blame its lack of vertical integration:

- __Vertical integration__ is when a company owns multiple stages of production in its supply chain. __[Apple](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AAPL)__ just got more vertically integrated by ditching __[Intel](https://robinhood.com/stocks/INTC)__ to put its own Apple-made chips in Macs.


__Controlling your supply chain helps control your destiny...__  Vertical integration can help lower costs, boost profitability, and avoid situations like Casper's. Casper isn't vertically integrated. That puts it at a disadvantage compared to competitors like __[Purple](https://robinhood.com/stocks/PRPL)__, which largely controls its manufacturing and saw sales [jump](http://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0001643953/028ea4fb-bc38-454b-ab2b-007cf9984c33.pdf) 60% last quarter. Purple stock has nearly 3X'd in value this year while Casper is down by half. 

Casper's sales fall despite record interest in its mattresses (it needs to get vertical)

💉 Moderna's big(ger) vax announcement

__Drooling all over the S-1...__ __DoorDash__ released its IPO [paperwork](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1792789/000119312520292381/d752207ds1.htm) on Friday, and didn't hold back with the high-res food pics (*so many poke bowls*). Companies that are going public have to file a [prospectus](https://learn.robinhood.com/articles/sOzjBhgQvJpvUd5VOqxOd/what-is-a-prospectus/)  with the SEC so investors can get informed. Here's what DoorDash delivered:

- __#1 food deliverer in the US:__ DoorDash has an enviable 50% share of the market. Uber Eats has 26%, Grubhub has 16%, and Postmates (which Uber's buying) has 7%.
- __Sales more than tripled__ to $1.9B from January to September compared to the same period in 2019. 18M customers, 1M Dashers, and 390K merchants now use DoorDash's platform. 
- __It's still not profitable.__ Buuuut: DoorDash significantly cut its net loss from $533M in the 2019 period to $149M in 2020. 

__Pad thai, Netflix, repeat...__ DoorDash's growth was driven by the pandemic/lockdowns, which also boosted __[Grubhub](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GRUB)__ and __[Uber](https://robinhood.com/stocks/UBER)__ — their stocks are up over 50% this year. But it warned investors growth may not continue at the same appetizing pace. To continue growing, DoorDash needs to expand *beyond* the saturated, hyper-competitive food delivery market.


_When you "Accio" the order to the wrong address_

__DoorDash is going full "Delivery Everything"...__  It bragged that if it can deliver unmelted ice cream, it can deliver *anything* — and that's exactly what it's trying to do. In addition to restaurant and grocery delivery, DoorDash partnered with __[CVS](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CVS)__ for pharmacy delivery and __[Macy's](https://robinhood.com/stocks/M)__ for clothing delivery. Mom-and-pop shops could be next. An all-in-one platform could keep "[promiscuous](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/3o0KQAYYbRpqhqULwfOWaD/articles/7m8VoFteAIgGsRXEzlIssk)" customers loyal and reduce the need for endless promos. That's why DoorDash mentioned "food" 169 times in its S-1 and "logistics" *200 times* (#priorities). 


DoorDash drops juicy details pre-IPO and reveals its biggest ambition

__Big vax energy...__ __[BioNTech](https://robinhood.com/stocks/BNTX)__ stock soared 15% for the week after the German biotech [announced](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/5gdq4YMCKXJLFy9oXr6lUV/articles/0CzIbmfTQ6Qo8bhIShm43) the COVID-19 vaccine it developed with __[Pfizer](https://robinhood.com/stocks/PFE)__ was more than *90%* effective in final-stage trials. Dr. Fauci said a vaccine could be approved at 50% to 60% effectiveness, so 90% is huge — but results are preliminary. BioNTech also got a boost from its earnings: quarterly sales from customer contracts more than doubled from last year.

__Slap a sticker on...__ for "cool factor." __[VF Corp](https://robinhood.com/stocks/VFC)__ is the uninspiringly-named company behind Vans, North Face, and Timberland — now VF is [snatching](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/5gdq4YMCKXJLFy9oXr6lUV/articles/7Fj68keB7bfNj5pY6w0Zjy/) up Supreme for $2.1B. The iconic streetwear brand is best known for its red logo (*it's everywhere*).  VF shares soared last week, making the biggest 1-day jump in over 30 years. Investors hope Supreme's digital savvy will rub off on VF — but some worry Supreme could *lose* its hype factor as a part of VF. 


__Muted and booted...__ __[Zoom](https://robinhood.com/stocks/ZM)__ shares dropped 19% last week on the Pfizer vaccine breakthrough. Good news for "Reopening Stocks" like airlines could mean bad news for pandemic winners like __[Peloton](https://robinhood.com/stocks/PTON)__, whose stock plunged 20%. An effective vax would help bring back face-to-face, decreasing our (desperate) reliance on the Zoom life. Also potentially concerning for Zoom: its competitor __Hopin__ grew from 5K users to 3.5M users this year, and just [raised](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/1D3tkm10PGnxrVOWgEDFKP/articles/3IrW9GmRmh51vbQd8pm5w3/) $125M. 

__Not McLovin' it..__ __[Beyond Meat](https://robinhood.com/stocks/BYND)__ stock plunged 20% for the week as investors chewed on two protein-packed patties of puzzling news. First: Beyond served up a surprising quarterly loss and disappointingly low sales. Second:  __[McDonald's](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MCD)__ [unveiled](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/5gdq4YMCKXJLFy9oXr6lUV/articles/6gVay06Q0kP8nGkAhbg790/) its *own* plant-based burger — "the McPlant" (niiiice). Beyond said it co-created the McPlant patty, but McDonald's made zero mention of that in its announcement. Awk.


🥙 DoorDash delivers an IPO filing 

__Ariana Grande fans are having withdrawal...__ and concert giant __[Live Nation](https://robinhood.com/stocks/LYV)__ is saying "thank u, next" to 2020 (*48 more days*). Live Nation's sales were down 95% last quarter because it was 0% live. The previous quarter was even *worse*, since festival season was cancelled (#Nochella). Still...

- __83% of concert-goers *kept* their tickets__ for rescheduled shows last quarter, keeping Live Nation's refund rate low. It still lost over $1B since January.
- __Live Nation has already [sold](https://deadline.com/2020/11/live-nation-sees-live-events-returning-at-scale-next-summer-without-concerts-q3-sales-plunge-94-1234609979/) 19M tickets__ to 4K+ concerts scheduled for 2021, so it's invested in them actually *happening*. 

__Do I have to take off my shoes?...__ Live Nation's Ticketmaster unit is [reportedly](https://www.billboard.com/articles/business/touring/9481166/ticketmaster-vaccine-check-concerts-plan) working on a TSA-like plan to go live. Ticketmaster wants to check your COVID status before you step foot in its venues.  

- __After buying a ticket,__ you verify that you've been vaccinated OR that you've tested negative for COVID-19 no more than three days before the concert.
- __Your test results get delivered__ to a health pass company like CLEAR. If you test negative, CLEAR tells Ticketmaster you're good to rock.


_"I said I want to do it live!"_

Rock

__This could be a framework for all live gatherings...__ Live Nation wants to lead the "Return to Live." A vaccine *could* be widely available by April, as Dr. Fauci [suggested](https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/11/10/nation/dr-fauci-says-covid-19-vaccine-could-be-widely-available-by-april/) following the promising __[Pfizer](https://robinhood.com/stocks/PFE)__ [news](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/5gdq4YMCKXJLFy9oXr6lUV/articles/0CzIbmfTQ6Qo8bhIShm43). But until enough Americans get vaccinated (could be a while), Live Nation will have to prove it can operate safely enough. If it succeeds, others like __[Eventbrite](https://robinhood.com/stocks/EB)__ could follow.


Live Nation wants to become the TSA of concerts to make sure 2021 is live

__But does it have Ludicrous mode?...__ __[Ford](https://robinhood.com/stocks/F)__ is [working](https://www.wsj.com/articles/for-fords-go-fast-ceo-a-humble-van-looms-large-11605189833?mod=business_lead_pos1) on an electric version of its classic Transit model. The nearly-windowless van reminds you of a sketchy UberPool — it's actually the top-selling van in America, used by companies for jobs like plumbing and delivery. Now Ford wants to give it some sex appeal...

- __The e-Transit will start at $45K__ and is set to drop in 2021. It could attract businesses looking to save on fuel costs. Also... 
- __Maintenance costs will be 40% lower__ over eight years for the electric vs. the gas version, according to Ford (no oil changes).

__It's not just about electric wheels...__ Ford's also making a subscription play with digital add-ons to help customers track and manage their fleets. Currently, it charges $20 to $25 per vehicle/month for those services. It's expanding those offerings with the new e-fleets: 

- __Driver-coaching:__ Remember those "How's my driving?" bumper stickers? This is like the techy version of that. Voice commands nag drivers if they're speeding or idling for too long (fuuun). 
- __Juice check:__ Owners can remotely check how much charge each van has left, or preprogram them to recharge when rates are lower.

Subscribe

__Subs could be Ford's future profit puppy...__ With recurring revenue from digital subscriptions, Ford can continue to profit off your purchase even *after* it sells you the car. Companies are obsessed with data because it helps them run more efficiently: if Ford can save companies money with these connected data services, companies could be willing to pay extra.


Ford is betting big on a data-driven electric version of its Transit van

🎤  Live Nation's (COVID-free) live summer 

__Napping during the earnings call...__ __[Lyft](https://robinhood.com/stocks/LYFT)__ just reported quarterly earnings, which seem to be its only mildly spotlight-worthy event of 2020 — and they weren't so thrilling, either. 

- __Active riders jumped 44%__ from the previous (horrible) quarter, signaling a mild recovery in ride-hail. But they were still *down* 44% from 2019.
- __Lyft lost $460M__, nearly as much as in the same quarter last year. But it's hoping to be [EBITDA](https://learn.robinhood.com/articles/52pskmpn39o7Y5RhE4APiH/what-is-ebitda/) profitable next year.

__Whip up the scorecard...__ While Lyft has been doing the least this year, __[Uber](https://robinhood.com/stocks/UBER)__'s been aggressively expanding its products and making big moves:

- __Food delivery:__ Uber agreed to [buy](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/q4J6y6mMs3jtkXwdTmJlG/articles/4C8Nmudmpz9QsUYbnLD5Hr/) __Postmates__ for $2.7B, while UberEats orders more than doubled during the pandemic.
- __Logistics:__ Uber Freight's gig trucking business [raised](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/q4J6y6mMs3jtkXwdTmJlG/articles/4C8Nmudmpz9QsUYbnLD5Hr/) $500M and is now worth $3.3B.
- __Public Transit:__ Uber started [selling](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/2zpVwVyEiGyPCvumSTvoc8/articles/6yN6Pa4Rv06oCT8tXPdeL5/) its software for public transport use, and bought public transit-focused __Routematch__. 
- __Micromobility:__ Uber led a big investment in __Lime__ and offers both Lime *and* its own Jump electric scooters/bikes in-app.
- __Aerial mobility:__ Uber Elevate partnered with GE for "Uber Air" helicopter ride-sharing (ETA: 2023).
- __Rides:__ Uber's [launching](https://techcrunch.com/2020/11/10/uber-will-now-let-users-book-rides-30-days-in-advance-and-pick-a-favorite-driver/) "Reserve" this week to let riders book their fave drivers in advance.


_When Lyft starts telling you its "story" on the plane_

Yawn

__Lyft's fail is probably reflected in its stock ...__ Lyft offers bike/scooter sharing and has [tested](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-lyft-delivery/lyft-launches-meal-grocery-delivery-service-in-several-u-s-cities-idUSKCN21X33G) essential deliveries for businesses in a few cities (food, groceries, etc). Besides that, it's  a pure-play Rides company — not great during a pandemic (even with the Prop 22 [victory](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/7jMUu1TK8PviqbKCFjQhjC/articles/f06IOakKwXbXOcwTVNbjX)). That's likely why Lyft stock is down 16% this year, while Uber is *up* 49%.

Lyft's boring 2020 is reflected in its stock price (just look at Uber)

__Overheard on marketing...__ *The Hollywood Bowl of virtual conferences – or Zoom's socially adept cousin?* Virtual conferencing startup __Hopin__ wants to be your home for live online events. But it's biggest strength might be impeccable timing: it officially launched in June 2019, just around six months before... *you know what*. The glow-up since March 2020:

- __User explosion:__ In eight months,  Hopin grew from 5K users and 1.8K event hosts to *3.5M users* and 50K host orgs (including NATO, the UN, and Slack).
- __Cash explosion:__ Hopin went from basically 0 to $20M in annual sales, and says it's now profitable. It just [raised](https://techcrunch.com/2020/11/10/hopin-raises-125m-for-its-online-events-platform-on-the-back-of-surging-growth/) $125M in venture cash and is valued at over $2B (#DoubleUnicorn).

__Burrito for lunch...__ means you're turning off your __[Zoom](https://robinhood.com/stocks/ZM)__ cam (and mic). Hoppin's [positioning](https://hopin.com/blog/how-hopin-is-different-from-other-platforms) itself as a more social version of "other platforms" (major Zoom shade). It lets you exchange virtual business cards, fill out polls, and explore interactive "rooms" and expo booths. It also has "backstages" for speakers and branding placements for event sponsors. *And* it's building an Eventbrite-like market that helps you discover events.


Burrito

__Hoppin could thrive post-pandemic, too...__ The big __[Pfizer](https://robinhood.com/stocks/PFE)__ vax [news](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/5gdq4YMCKXJLFy9oXr6lUV/articles/0CzIbmfTQ6Qo8bhIShm43) sent Zoom stock plunging on Tuesday — investors are already envisioning a return to normalcy. But Hopin says it was born to be a “hybrid” service that complements physical events. That's something that could stick post-pandemic, even though the growth won't be as huge. 