__If Tony Soprano were driving in 2021…__ he’d pull up in a Volkswagen. European antitrust regulators [fined](https://www.wsj.com/articles/volkswagen-bmw-fined-1-billion-by-europe-over-diesel-tech-collusion-11625741892) Volkswagen and BMW more than $1B – about 5% of their annual profits – for colluding to avoid upgrading their emissions tech. In this plot, the "conspirators" are __Volkswagen__, __BMW__, and Mercedes-maker __Daimler__.

- __The pact:__ Between 2009 and 2014, the three German car giants agreed *not* to compete with each other to develop cleaner, expensive emissions tech. *"I won't do it if you don't."*
- __The rat:__ Daimler  agreed to blow the whistle on its co-conspirators in exchange for immunity in the EU investigation.
- __The punishment:__ Severe. VW will pay $590M, BMW will pay $442M, and Daimler *would've* paid nearly $900M — if it hadn’t squealed.

__But this is actually *a sequel*...__ Volkswagen’s been busted before. In 2015’s #Dieselgate, VW outfitted cars with software to [cheat](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/2FGYY02td4t3rp9KjKvLQM/articles/2UCVo6eZfPbk4jUIyb9qaM/) emissions tests. Since then, VW’s paid $38B+ in fines and fees – but the German auto biz has struggled to clean up its soiled reputation. Now, EU regulators are sending an unprecedented message: no collusion of any kind. 


Colluded

__EU antitrust just got broader...__ It’s the first time the EU has used antitrust law to punish companies for suppressing tech innovation, instead of usual no-nos like [price-fixing](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/4c8kK4Rid9pHznCNpssxSz/articles/4dudsh94ZC6uaeWk14f7up/). The three car companies didn't agree to all raise prices at once — that would be OG collusion. Instead, they tried a more *creative* type of collusion: don't innovate, boost profit. But the EU put its foot down. Antitrust might get broader in the US, too. New FTC leader Lina Khan has [said](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/2Z4BofvGDzgoroXZ4OTaiL/articles/75lgUHK9VCoHmFBsxK4D6C/) that we need "a new vocabulary" for addressing Big Tech's dominance.

Antier-trust: BMW and Volkswagen were fined $1B for colluding to avoid building cleaner tech

__Don't eat the milk jelly cleanser...__ __Glossier__ is the viral direct-to-consumer makeup/skincare brand whose products look like candy — or art supplies. From tubes of "Cloud Paint" blush and "Balm Dotcom" skin salves, to roll-on highlighter sticks, Glossier is the epitome of Instagram-able packaging. Now it has something else to gram about: 

- __Double unicorn status:__ Almost. Glossier just raised $80M in funding, [reportedly](https://wwd.com/beauty-industry-news/beauty-features/glossier-beauty-fundraise-265-millino-venture-capital-stores-1234876045/) bringing its valuation to $1.8B.  
- __The digital-first company__ plans to use the fresh cash to bring back physical locations, which it shut down during the pandemic. The first new stores will be in Seattle, LA, and London.

__Signature makeup look...__ The "no makeup" makeup look. Seven-year-old Glossier pioneered modern, direct-to-consumer beauty with its TikTok-friendly minimal aesthetic. Think: Millennial pink and pastel-everything. It keeps things simple with 39 products that are easy to apply.

- __Household name with Gen Zillennials:__ Two in every five US women between ages 18 and 34 have heard of Glossier, and it has 5M+ customers globally.
- __Digital super power:__ Glossier's online sales increased across all categories during the pandemic, while makeup sales plummeted for OG retailers. 80% of its sales come from its own site.


Highlight

__The power is in the packaging...__ because it's the first thing we see. People often buy makeup, food, and other items because they look *cute*, without even knowing the ingredients or quality. Cool retail stores are a form of packaging, too. For Glossier, they're an extension of its marketing strategy to inspire, then *acquire* customers. Examples of "well-packaged" Glossier shops: a [fried chicken](https://sf.eater.com/2018/3/14/17117234/glossier-rheas-cafe-mission-pop-up-san-francisco) and lipstick pop-up at a pink cafe in SF, and a Boston setup made of university-inspired “campuses." Coming this August: a huge, mushroom-themed concept store in Seattle.  


Millennial makeup favorite Glossier snags a $1.8B valuation by embracing "the power of the package" 

S&P 500

Dow Jones

Nasdaq

Bitcoin

_No makeup makeup vibes [Westend61 via GettyImages]_

🚗 Volkswagen's collusion plot twist

__Put down your lightsabers...__ The JEDI war is over. In 2019,  __[Microsoft](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MSFT)__ scored a huge win by snagging the Pentagon's $10B cloud-computing contract (aka: "JEDI"). Over 10 years, Microsoft would modernize the Department of Defense's IT systems, storing and crunching government data in its cloud. After losing the bid, cloud competitor __[Amazon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMZN)__ appealed the decision. In response to the 'Zon's lawsuit, a federal judge temporarily blocked the deal earlier this year. 

- __The tea:__ Amazon claimed that then-President Donald Trump sabotaged its JEDI bid because of beef with *The Washington Post*, which Jeff Bezos owns.
- __Now, JEDI is canceled.__ The Biden admin [scrapped](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/06/pentagon-cancels-10-billion-jedi-cloud-contract.html) the contract, in favor of a new contract that will be awarded to multiple cloud companies. 

__Cloud moves fast...__ Two years after outlining its cloud-computing needs, the DoD wants to reassess its options. Now, Amazon and Microsoft will both be solicited for proposals for the new contract, called "Joint Warfighter Cloud Capability" (less catchy). Other qualified bidders could [include](https://www.wsj.com/articles/pentagon-plans-reboot-of-jedi-cloud-contract-11625589039) __[Google](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GOOG)__, __[Oracle](https://robinhood.com/stocks/ORCL)__, and __[IBM](https://robinhood.com/stocks/IBM)__. The DoD is America's largest employer, which means big cloud cash. 

- __In context:__ Companies and governments are moving in droves from on-premise data storage (think: OG Word doc on your PC) to cloud storage (think: Google Doc in the cloud).
- __The cloud-computing market is worth $214B__, and the competition for market share is intense. Amazon's AWS is the leader, while Microsoft's Azure is #2.

JEDI

__The Cloud Wars are far from fluffy...__ They're brutal for a reason.  Cloud is the oil of the modern economy, powering everything from Netflix to your credit card payments.  Cloud infrastructure service revenue was $39B in the first quarter, up 37% from last year. Once a company transitions to a cloud service, it's hard to move off because of high switching costs. High-profile contracts like this Pentagon deal are crucial to gaining market share in a cloud-eat-cloud world.

Cloud Wars: the Pentagon calls off its $10B JEDI contract, two years after Microsoft won

__*Has anyone seen my tabby cat?*...__ When Tabitha's missing, a Facebook post won't help  — so you turn to __Nextdoor__. The hyper-local social networking app allows you to chat with neighbors, exchange recs, and get the scoop on local news. Like: your fave mailman just retired, and that "earthquake" you felt was actually just you. People seek advice on everything from babysitters, to laundromats, to borrowing BBQ grills. 

- __Nextdoor is going public__ through a SPAC merger that values it at [$4.3B](https://www.wsj.com/articles/nextdoor-to-go-public-in-proposed-spac-merger-11625574577), nearly double its 2019 valuation. The 10-year-old company will raise nearly $700M. 
- __KIND:__ Nextdoor's future ticker combats perceptions about its chatrooms, like "Trina, can you take out your stupid trash before 2 am.”
- __$$$:__ Nextdoor makes most of its money from ads for local businesses and real estate brokers. Two big trends in its favor: business reopenings and the housing boom.

__Giving away my extra TP rolls...__ Too kind. Nextdoor thrived during the pandemic, as people flocked to the app for info about Covid, testing/vax sites, and local biz closures. Now:

- __Nearly one in three households__ in the US use the Nextdoor app. 
- __275K+__ neighborhoods across 11 countries are on Nextdoor.
- __Facebook__ is [trying](https://abc7news.com/facebook-neighborhoods-ad-library-login-community-standards/7216725/) to Zuck Nextdoor with a copycat called “Neighborhoods.”


_"This is definitely going on Nextdoor" [Caspar Benson via GettyImages]_

Tabitha

__OG social has become too antisocial...__ Most of the time: You're scrolling photos of random influencers and meme accounts, and barely interacting with your 1K followers. On FB, you're flooded with notifications about people you haven't seen since 5th grade. People are seeking real community post-pandemic, but big social networks have become *too* big. Tight-knit communities and real-life connections help Nextdoor users feel closer — call it "local media." 

Neighborhood social network Nextdoor is going public: it’s capitalizing on “local media”

☁️ Cloud Wars, demystified

__Cancel the IPO honeymoon...__ Celebrations didn't last long for __[Didi Chuxing](https://robinhood.com/stocks/DIDI)__. Last week, the Chinese ride-hail giant raised $4.4B in the largest US IPO of the year — and the biggest IPO by a Chinese company since ecomm giant __[Alibaba](https://robinhood.com/stocks/BABA)__ in 2014. Didi notched a $68B market cap on its first trading day (two-thirds of an Uber). But that's  *how it started*. 

- __*How it's going*:__  Not well. Over the weekend, Chinese regulators ordered Didi to stop adding users and told app-store operators like __[Apple](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AAPL)__ to take down Didi’s China service.
- __Why:__ China's explanation was vague, but regulators said Didi collected personal info “in violation” of the country's rules. Now, China is carrying out a cybersecurity review.
- __Didi's stock plunged 20%__ yesterday. BTW: two other recently IPO’d Chinese companies, __[Full Truck Alliance](https://robinhood.com/stocks/YMM)__ and __[Kanzhun](https://robinhood.com/stocks/BZ)__, are facing the same restrictions. 

__Control > success...__ Five years ago, China might've hailed Didi's blockbuster IPO as a source of national pride. This year, China is driving the flops of its own biggest IPOs as it reminds tech companies who's in charge:

- __Strike 1:__ The infamous __Ant Group__ [squashing](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/3Y16VU6wsQpOaP5bwzUgFf/articles/10lyNbTzg1HbB3563ygUqe/). China halted the fintech giant's mega-IPO, and pressured it to restructure its biz. 
- __Strike 2:__ China ordered 34 of the country's largest tech cos, including TikTok-owner __ByteDance__, to comply with anti-monopoly laws or face “severe punishment."
- __Strike 3:__ China's antitrust regulator slapped Alibaba with a record-breaking $2.8B fine.


Blocked

__The theme has shifted for investors...__ It used to be: "Invest in China's growth opportunity." Now it's more like: *"Invest in China at your own risk."* Didi warned of this risk in its IPO filing, saying that if the Chinese government changes its interpretation of regulations or finds that Didi isn't compliant, the company could face "severe penalties." Zooming out, investors' opportunity is the growing size of China’s consumer market. The risk is the Chinese government's growing oversight. 


Didi's mega IPO party gets cut short, as China blocks app downloads and signups

__All about that CURV...__ __[Torrid](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CURV)__ is the largest direct-to-consumer brand of women’s plus-size clothing in North America. You might remember it as a sub-brand of Hot Topic (RIP studded belts). Six years after breaking up with checkered skinny jeans, Torrid has its own hot topic: a successful IPO. Torrid stock has jumped 15% since its NYSE [debut](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-shares-of-plus-size-womens-clothing-brand-torrid-are-going-haywire-on-its-ipo-day-182344258.html) last week — ticker symbol: CURV. 

- __The profile:__ Torrid defines its style as "unapologetically youthful and sexy," and is "maniacally" focused on fit. 
- __The numbers:__ Nearly $1B in sales last year, and it's profitable. But its profit has been roughly halving each year since 2018.
- __The source:__ Online sales made up 70% of Torrid's revenue last year while its 600+ stores were temporarily closed. 

__Don't curve your enthusiasm...__ The plus-sized market is significant, and it's growing. In the US, it serves a whopping 90M women wearing sizes 10 and up. Torrid says many brands treat plus-size customers as an afterthought, which is why the market has been underserved. Torrid's biggest strength: putting that customer base front-and-center. 


Curve

__Torrid turned fit into a brand...__ and won strong customer loyalty. 78% of plus-size women say they would spend more on clothes if they had more options available in their size. Urban Outfitter's blind spot is Torrid's super power: Last year, Torrid had an *82%* customer retention rate. By dedicating itself to the needs of a broad, unsaturated market, Torrid is tapping into a key opportunity. 

Torrid's hot IPO: how the plus-size retailer is tapping into a major, underserved market

_When the party takes a turn for the worse [fstop123/E+ via GettyImages]_

🛑  Didi's post-IPO blocker

__Alexa, play "In My Life" by The Beatles...__ Jeff Bezos is feeling post-Prime Day nostalgia. Yesterday, __[Amazon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMZN)__'s founder officially stepped down as CEO after 27 years at the helm. The 'Zon has come a long way since 1995, when Bezos sold the site's first book from his Seattle garage. Bezos had left a cushy hedge fund job to take a risk on his ecomm idea, [saying](https://yourstory.com/2020/02/jeff-bezos-boss-david-shaw-ecommerce-amazon/amp) "Even if I fail, I would not have any regrets." Spoiler: *he didn't fail*. 

- __Enter Jassy:__ Andy Jassy = Amazon's new CEO. The Amazon lifer was the CEO of AWS, Amazon's *massive* cloud computing service ($45B in annual sales).    
- __Exit Bezos:__ Kind of. Bezos is now exec chairman, focusing on new Amazon products and special projects. 
- __Cue investors:__ Amazon stock barely budged when the transition was [announced](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/74ToixyRpxD4zT2RPAUqb/articles/1TzZuEtqxwSJ5xwQGSycsr/) in February, signaling investors have confidence in the shift.

__Special delivery...__ CEO onboarding packet, coming in *bulky*. Jassy is inheriting an ecomm and cloud leader with side-hustles in hardware, grocery, advertising, healthcare, streaming, *and* Hollywood (see: [MGM acquisition](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/1N31BqWqFLT91MgZLUXNEq/articles/6ccELOc86lnzTpPcIn2vKo/)). 

- __What’s going well:__ Money. Amazon's sales surged 44% last quarter, and profit more than tripled as the ecommerce boom keeps booming. The 'Zon is expected to rake in [40%+](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/18/as-e-commerce-sales-proliferate-amazon-holds-on-to-top-online-retail-spot.html) of US ecomm sales by the end of the year. 
- __*Not* going well:__ Regulatory scrutiny. The FTC's new leader Lina Khan is a Big Tech critic who wrote a [major](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/2Z4BofvGDzgoroXZ4OTaiL/articles/75lgUHK9VCoHmFBsxK4D6C/) paper on Amazon's dominance while at Yale Law. Last week, Amazon made moves to stop her from participating in 'Zon-related antitrust investigations. Oh, and a House committee just [advanced](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/5tRYnsRgn3rJ4caqG3lXnl/articles/1RLuAoU5YouPqt1GL30lzZ/) major legislation to curb Big Tech's dominance. 

Nostalgic

__Bezos' focus was  blistering growth...__ Jassy's focus might be  corporate responsibility. Amazon's 14 corporate principles include: "deliver results," "bias for action," and "customer obsession." A few days before Jassy took over, Amazon renamed them Leadership Principles and [added](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-01/amazon-revises-corporate-values-days-before-bezos-steps-down#:~:text=Amazon%20Revises%20Corporate%20Values%20Days%20Before%20Bezos%20Steps%20Down,-By&text=Amazon.com%20Inc.%20employees%20are,adding%20two%20more%20bullet%20points.) two: “Strive to be Earth’s Best Employer,” and “Success and Scale Bring Broad Responsibility.” They're reactions to criticism Amazon has received over the years — but they're also Bezo's parting words to Jassy,  to tee up Amazon's next chapter. 

The King of Amazon hands over his crown: here's what's ahead for the new CEO 

__Space Battle of the Billionaires...__ Most people do summer vacays in Florida or Yosemite — billionaires go to space. __Virgin Galactic__ founder Richard Branson plans to [board](https://www.wsj.com/articles/richard-branson-plans-virgin-galactic-space-trip-before-jeff-bezos-11625181813) a test spaceflight on Sunday. Awkward, since that's nine days before Jeff Bezos is scheduled to embark on his __Blue Origin__ space trip (announced *before* Branson's). Aside from fueling billionaires' egos, these trips are billboards for NASA-sponsored [space tourism](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/5FWjUZF34wCrp57CR8ykmX/articles/4nclQE3efo2kF2GIohnPxn/). The fact that CEOs are getting aboard helps build confidence in the emerging industry. 

__Marvel returns...__ with a vengeance. __Marvel__ is releasing *Black Widow* in theaters and Disney+ on Friday, after delaying it for more than a year. It’s the first Marvel flick to debut in theaters since the pandemic began. Now: 80% of movie theaters are open, and Covid restrictions have  relaxed. The US box office is [seeing](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/02/fourth-of-july-box-office-not-as-robust-this-year-but-its-on-track.html) a strong recovery, but hasn't caught up to its pre-Covid success yet. *Black Widow*'s ticket sales could give us a glimpse into summer demand. 

Events

Coming up this week...

__Labor shortage update...__ Still short. US employers [added](https://www.wsj.com/articles/june-jobs-report-unemployment-rate-2021-11625176511?mod=hp_lead_pos1) an expectation-beating 850K jobs in June, the biggest gain in 10 months. Unemployment ticked up to 5.9%, in part because more Americans started job-searching. As the US economy roars back to life, demand for workers is revving up, too. Wages jumped last month as employers from restaurants to gig apps tried to attract workers. Case in point: __[Uber](https://robinhood.com/stocks/UBER)__ and __[Lyft](https://robinhood.com/stocks/LYFT)__ are spending millions on driver incentives, and you've probably seen ads recruiting food delivery drivers. 

__Heat waves in the middle of June...__  A record-breaking heat wave has been [plaguing](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/5MbpAg6JNCCUZT9rzZmVeK/articles/786ZOvBNd39DMDQ0HLmZ2b/) the Pacific Northwest. The temp in Portland soared to 116 degrees last week, hotter than Miami, Dallas, and LA have *ever* been. All that sweat means more $$$ for A/C companies like __[Carrier](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CARR)__, __[Lennox](https://robinhood.com/stocks/LII)__, and __[Trane](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TT)__, whose stocks are near record highs. But for the agriculture industry, the too-hot-handle temps could mean [smaller](https://www.nationalobserver.com/2021/07/02/news/heat-wave-bc-prairies-farmers-climate-change) crops and fewer workers. For consumers, it could mean even pricier food. 


Zoom Out

Stories we're watching...

- __[Dismissal](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/3do8YTeMc1o5ouXYxDJMjM/articles/2VeNxgBDUGn9Tyo5q82MGq/):__ The FTC was disappointed when a judge failed to Like its antitrust complaint against __[Facebook](https://robinhood.com/stocks/FB)__. 
- __[Tok](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/4pL5CXoQ8WqEd2krxJNCcR/articles/4xlYC1FzgdfLlf3hjCbsBz/):__  __TikTok__ is rolling out longer videos, but the real story is its Chinese sister Douyin. 
- __[Spaghetti](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/5MbpAg6JNCCUZT9rzZmVeK/articles/1TtaqnhsNW91YZNIQTFbsb/):__ __[Bumble](https://robinhood.com/stocks/BMBL)__ is opening its first restaurant to facilitate IRL connections. But it's not about dating — it's about relevance.


ICYMI

Last week's highlights...

_Bezos' galactic greeting committee [Donald Iain Smith via GettyImages]_

📦 Amazon's next era

__"Say So," the full version...__ Well, almost. __TikTok__ is [rolling](https://www.theverge.com/2021/7/1/22558856/tiktok-videos-three-minutes-length?scrolla=5eb6d68b7fedc32c19ef33b4) out three-minute videos for everyone, a boost from the current one-minute limit. That means you could learn the full lyrics of viral songs, instead of half a chorus. It *also* means that the nature of TikTok — and its bite-sized content — could change. 

- __24.5 hours:__ How long the [average](https://www.adweek.com/media/app-annie-tiktok-leads-youtube-in-average-time-spent-per-month-in-the-us/) US TikToker spends on the app each month — over 30 years, that would amount to nearly a full year of life scrolling the Tok (#womp). 
- __20 hours:__ How long US users spends on __YouTube__ each month. YT has biased its algorithm toward viewer retention. Read: longer vids.
- __If longer videos__ lead to higher usage, TikTok could tweak its addicting algorithm to promote long clips. 

__While vids get longer...__ the wallet is getting fatter. TikTok's Chinese owner __ByteDance__ saw sales more than double last year to $34B, [according](https://www.wsj.com/articles/tiktok-owner-bytedances-annual-revenue-jumps-to-34-3-billion-11623903622) to WSJ — nearly 14X __Snap__'s annual revenue. 

- __Even wilder stat:__ Last year, ByteDance reportedly had *1.9B* monthly users across its platforms, which include TikTok and Douyin, the Chinese TikTok. 
- __Douyin__ =  the original, non-international version of TikTok used by Chinese nationals. Same branding, same parent, separate content — censored by the Chinese gov't. 

Toker

__ByteDance has the "two worlds" advantage...__ That could be its biggest competitive edge. Nearly one in four people on Earth use a ByteDance app — that puts it on par with Facebook and YouTube, and far past Snap and Twitter. Meanwhile: Facebook, YouTube, Snap, and Twitter are all *banned* in China. Because these platforms aren't censored by China, they're closed off from the world's most populous country, limiting their growth. With TikTok *and* Douyin, ByteDance has the best of both worlds. 

TikTok is rolling out longer videos — but the real story is its Chinese sister Douyin 

__Legally Zoomed...__ to the public market. When you need legal help, you either a) do hours of Googling, or b) beg your friend to FaceTime with their lawyer mom — anything to avoid paying $500/hour. __[LegalZoom](https://robinhood.com/stocks/LZ)__ tries to fix that by offering legal services online. Think: DIY legal documents and e-consultations. You fill out some questions, and LZ whips up completed legal docs. On Wednesday, the 20-year-old company whipped up an IPO:

- __LegalZoom shares__ soared 35% from their IPO price on their first trading day, giving it a $7B+ market cap.  
- __8%:__ LZ's CEO says that only 8% of legal services are delivered online, creating a big opportunity for online legal providers. Legal services market = ~$50B opp. 

__"Call my e-lawyer...__ I need to LLC my CBD kombucha startup." 2020 was the [best](https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2021/06/29/1010229557/what-americas-startup-boom-could-mean-for-the-economy) year on record for new business creation, and applications for new businesses have continued to soar this year. LegalZoom reaped the benefits of all those business apps:

- __Last year, 10% of new LLCs__ (limited liability companies) and 5% of new corporations in the US were formed through LegalZoom. LZ's sales soared to nearly half a billion. 

Kombucha

__LZ is a piggyback stock...__ to the Creator Economy. In September, WSJ [reported](https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-it-insane-to-start-a-business-during-coronavirus-millions-of-americans-dont-think-so-11601092841) that Americans were starting businesses at the fastest rate since 2007. And it's not just brick-and-mortar stores. During the pandemic, Americans created new businesses from Etsy shops, online fitness services, apps, and podcasts. And those creators needed legal docs to seal the deal.   

LegalZoom jumps after IPO: the DIY legal service is riding high on the business boom 

When the CBD kombucha LLC gets approved [10'000 Hours via GettyImages]

📱 TikTok does long Toks 

__Crank the A/C to "Arctic Tundra"...__ ICYMI: a record-breaking heat wave has been plaguing the Pacific Northwest. Portland makes you think of rainy days in coffee shops — this summer, it feels more like you're *in* the coffee. The temp in Portland [soared](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/portland-soared-116-degrees-hotter-dallas-miami-la-have-ever-n1272617) to 116 degrees yesterday, hotter than Miami, Dallas, and LA have *ever* been. Seattle has seen hundreds of heat-induced ER visits, and Portland is dealing with [melting](https://www.npr.org/2021/06/29/1011269025/photos-the-pacific-northwest-heatwave-is-melting-power-cables-and-buckling-roads) power cables and roads.

__Too hot to handle...__ Not for A/C companies. All that sweat means more $$$ for HVAC companies like __[Carrier](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CARR)__, __[Lennox](https://robinhood.com/stocks/LII)__, and __[Trane](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TT)__. Not so coincidentally, *their stocks are near record highs*. There's just one problem: A/C generates tons of carbon emissions. Keeping the world cool requires heavy electricity use, which is often powered by fossil fuels like coal and gas. 

- __15% of greenhouse gases come from HVAC systems__ — aka: heating/cooling tech. Now, some A/C giants are trying to go "sustainable."
- __Enter Trane Technologies:__ Trane's sales jumped last quarter as the world heated up, but it says its #1 strategy is "winning through sustainable innovation." 
- __Trane's goal:__ Reduce 1 gigaton of CO2 emissions from its customers’ footprint by 2030, through “clean” technologies and higher energy-efficiency. 

Cool

__A/C companies are their own tailwind...__ Thanks to the "Conditioning Climate Cycle." A/C helps fight the sweat-inducing effects of climate change, but it also significantly contributes to them. Nineteen of the hottest years on record have been in the past 20 years. That means more people installing and cranking A/C, which means growing sales for HVAC companies — and more climate-warming emissions. But if HVACs can become more sustainable, they can start reversing more of their negative impact, too.

Air conditioning stocks are at record highs, and so are outside temps: it's a self-feeding cycle

__Swipe right on the zucchini pasta...__ Four months after its IPO, __[Bumble](https://robinhood.com/stocks/BMBL)__ is doing an IRO: initial restaurant offering. The dating app where women make the first move is [opening](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-30/dating-app-bumble-will-open-its-first-cafe-in-new-york-in-july) its first restaurant in NYC this month: "Bumble Brew."  The bar/restaurant concept was orginally focused on “date-friendly” food. Read: no splattering sauces or volcanic burritos. Then, the pandemic forced Bumble to put its gastronomic plans on hold, and it emerged with a different mission. 

__Not just first dates...__ Bumble wants Brew to be a spot for connections of all kinds, from frittata with friends and family to networking over chardonnay. So it scrapped the date-friendly menu and added riskier choices like squid ink spaghetti. 

- __That aligns with Bumble's new biz strategy:__ *not just a dating app*. Bumble has expanded with Bumble Bizz for career networking, and Bumble BFF for new friends.
- __*Back to the dating*:__ 90% of US Bumble users say they're ready to date IRL again. While Brew could host career chats, pent-up dating demand is Bumble's biggest opportunity. 
- __Dating app folder is overheating:__ Bumble will have to share that demand with its much bigger rival __[Match](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MTCH)__, which owns Tinder, Hinge, and 20+ other e-romance apps. 

_Remembering how to swipe right IRL [Westend61 via GettyImages]_

Buzzy

__Apps bring scale, but community brings relevance...__ If out of sight = out of mind, then Bumble wants to be the opposite — and gain an edge over Match in the process. Bumble shares are down 24% since it IPO'd. Building community with a physical presence could help it get its groove back. That's one reason companies like __Warby Parker__ and __AllBirds__ keep opening physical stores, despite having successful ecomm businesses. 

Bumble is opening its first restaurant, but it's not about dating — it's about relevance 

 🐝  Bumble's restaurant play

__They should pay in points…__ [United](https://robinhood.com/stocks/UAL) is buying 270 new Boeing and Airbus planes in the [largest](https://www.axios.com/united-biggest-plane-order-in-its-history-bf07b4b1-367f-4a29-bf5a-fcbe2f356002.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&stream=top) aircraft deal in a decade. We’re talking [$30B](https://www.wsj.com/articles/united-places-its-biggest-jet-order270-boeing-and-airbus-planes-11624960800?mod=hp_lead_pos2) worth of flying metal that’ll result in: 100 new flights/day, 30% more seats, and a hefty 25K new jobs.

__When you say “Work From Anywhere”...__ does that include 35K feet? United’s new birds aren’t the ultra skinny ones — and that’s on purpose. To get business flyers back, United seems to be creating flying offices with hopes that you’ll “Work From Airplane”:

- __More:__ More legroom, in-seat screens, and overhead suitcase space.
- __Faster:__ WiFi speeds kicked up a few notches so… you’re… not… buffering.
- __Premium-ier:__ Overall seating capacity will rise 30%, but [premium seating](https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-battle-to-lure-back-premium-travellers-has-begun-11624977777) will jump 75%, meaning more room to physically network.

Takeoff

__United could be opting for the  Field of Dreams strategy...__ If you build it, they may come. Bill Gates predicted that [half](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/17/coronavirus-bill-gates-says-more-than-50percent-of-business-travel-will-disappear-long-term.html) of business travel is never coming back. But United’s CEO disagrees: “Every day tells us that business and international travel will ultimately come back 100%.” Bold. But that may be why United splurged a record amount on this deal: As marketing to convince you that working from an airplane is comfy. United isn’t just predicting demand — it’s trying to create demand.

United just placed its biggest airplane order — we call them “Sky Offices”

__Check the back of your Apple device…__ “Designed in California, assembled in China” — not on the label: Assembled at Foxconn’s Chinese manufacturing facility. [Taiwan-based](https://www.foxconn.com/en-us/about/worldwide) Foxconn has done to electronic manufacturing what Henry Ford did to carmaking. And it was supposed to expand that expertise to a brand new factory in the US. Time for an update:

__“8th Wonder of the World”...__ That’s what then-President Trump called the Foxconn plan for Wisconsin: Hire up to 13K local workers to make [screens](https://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/26/watch-trump-announces-wisconsin-jobs--maybe-with-apple-supplier-foxconn.html) for cars, TVs, and other electronics. In exchange, Foxconn would get up to [$4B](https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/state-foxconn-say-new-deal-reached-for-southeast-wisconsin-manufacturing-plant-with-fewer-tax-credits/article_baf80224-69ac-5a65-a65c-d3337f1a2d81.html) in benefits from the state, county, and the small town of Mount Pleasant, WI. So here’s the update:
- __1.5K:__ That’s the new job goal, after the deal got negotiated — [90%](https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/foxconn-to-receive-80-million-not-3-billion-under-new-deal-with-wisconsin/article_1a25e3b9-d37d-5031-b297-199f6bfb3b78.html) smaller than planned.
- __$1B:__ That’s how much Wisconsin has [spent](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/29/after-wisconsins-foxconn-debacle-states-rethink-giant-subsidies.html) to prep the site — not cheap.

__Transactional incentives can be a powerful weapon…__ that can backfire. Wisconsin hoped to be the epicenter of advanced American manufacturing. Instead, the town is saddled with debt, and local workers face broken job promises. The lesson Wisconsin officials took: One-off deals with corporations for job creation may not be optimal. Instead, [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/29/after-wisconsins-foxconn-debacle-states-rethink-giant-subsidies.html) highlights that Wisconsin is pivoting to focus on workforce development, infrastructure, and biz-friendly policies – not deals. 

Foxconn was supposed to create the “8th Wonder of the World” in Wisconsin – it didn’t

"I'll take the Sky Office, please" [Jayme Thornton via GettyImages]

✈️ Meet the "Sky Office"

__Facebook vs. many government lawyers…__ The FTC and 46 states sued Facebook [back](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/3W2qDBQC1zd66GBLGKcPH5/articles/btPa9ZLG0TKdCGgtFoeSA/) in December, arguing it unfairly maintained its monopoly status (in social media, DMs, and likes/comments) by crushing competition and buying rivals. The government asked that Facebook unwind Instagram and WhatsApp, separating them as different companies. 

- __Facebook’s lawyers filed a motion to dismiss__, fearing an expensive legal fight and a heartbreaking goodbye to Insta.
- __Yesterday, the judge granted the dismissal.__

__But, the judge [critiqued](https://www.wsj.com/articles/federal-judge-dismisses-government-antitrust-lawsuits-against-facebook-11624907747?mod=hp_lead_pos1) the government’s complaint, not the case...__ The judge said the government’s complaint failed to identify an actual violation of antitrust law. “[Legally insufficient](https://s.wsj.net/public/resources/documents/facebook0628.pdf)” were his exact words about the evidence. The judge also gave the government a chance to amend its complaint within 30 days. 

- __That didn’t temper Wall Street joy...__ FB surged 4% to a record high. Add up all of FB’s stock today, and it’s worth more than $1T. The $1T club includes Apple, Microsoft, Saudi Aramco, Amazon, Google, and now –  Facebook. 


$1 trillion company launch party [Morsa Images via GettyImages]

Suit

__FB won the battle, but there could still be a war...__ Last week, a House Committee advanced six bills that would crackdown on what many in Congress have called unfair play by tech giants. Yesterday, a federal judge said that existing antitrust law — which was written 100 years ago — doesn’t paint Facebook as doing anything wrong. That gives FB some short-term breathing room, but could motivate Congress to change antitrust law. *21st century tech requires 21st century antitrust laws.* New talking points could be coming. 

Judge dismisses FTC case against Facebook. But the victory could motivate the social giant’s foes in Congress 

__Throwback to 2006…__ Honda’s stock is at the same place it was 15 years ago. The Japanese car legend has been coasting in neutral, without an electric or self-driving plan — Until now. Honda just announced its first [fully electric car](https://www.autonews.com/marketing/honda-will-call-its-gm-based-ev-prologue?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter) (“The Prologue”) and plans to be [100% electric](https://hondanews.com/en-US/honda-corporate/releases/release-32797eaea7316f1bed4bfcd27919f703-honda-targets-100-ev-sales-in-north-america-by-2040-makes-new-commitments-to-advances-in-environmental-and-safety-technology) in North America by 2040 (FYI: Nothing excites car shoppers like a literary reference in a vehicle name).

__But one weird thing...__ Honda’s not building the new Prologue — General Motors is taking care of that. This goes back to a “[strategic](https://media.gm.com/media/us/en/gm/home.detail.html/content/Pages/news/us/en/2020/sep/0903-mou.html) alliance” announced last year. But Honda’s kind of acting like Robin saying they’re cofighting crime with Batman.

- __Awkward:__ Honda’s first electric car will be [pumped](https://www.autonews.com/manufacturing/gm-build-honda-ev-mexico-acura-ev-tenn-sources-say) out of GM’s Mexico plant.
- __Awkwarder:__ Even its higher-end Acura electric will come from GM’s Tennessee plant.
- __Awkwardest:__ Honda says it has designed the “exteriors and interiors” — But GM’s making the batteries and powertrain, and running the assembly.

Electric

__Is it an alliance or a dependence?...__ So far, it’s not clear if GM is teaching Honda how to drive electric, or if GM is in the process of it slowly taking over. Honda claims it won’t rely on GM forever and will make its own Prologue after 2024. But Honda is also in the middle of a 15-year stretch of stagnation, without  electric or fully self-driving mojo. So GM could be helping Honda complete the transition to 100% electric. Or maybe this “alliance” could develop into a longer-term dependence.

Honda finally announced its first EV — But someone else is making the car

🏆 FB's $1T win

1. __America's booming recovery...__ Cue the "[revenge spending](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/2lFqgJt0AfN3zJsbqdxm7m/articles/17MF35F4AhEUwPGvF1qKzt/)." The US economy is roaring back to life and is expected to grow [6.5%](https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-u-s-economy-roars-back-life-in-many-poor-countries-gets-worse-11617874201) this year, its highest rate since the '80s. Thank the US' massive stockpile of Covid vaccines for the glow-up — oh, and *$5.3T* worth of gov't stimulus. This year, Americans are spending more on restaurants, flights, and *non*-stretchy clothes (pajamas are about to enter a recession). US plane traveler volume is back to three-quarters of 2019 levels, up from 25% a year ago. But the reopening economy has also been driving inflation and shortages. And while the US recovers, poorer nations are falling [further](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/64VKtgKZkaaZZmAmaD67OM/articles/4D1D5CUdIwzesT1nTfvvJM/) behind. 

2. __The rise of alt-coins...__ This year, crypto mainstreamification is going far beyond Bitcoin: we call it "[coin crowding](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/dLcrQb1mMJkJggNDpsdYE/articles/2ZsEiE2UH2RHJdVHispio6/)." In January, BTC made up 70% of total crypto value — now, it makes up 45%. Alt-coins like Ethereum and Doge have picked up crypto market share, dimming BTC's spotlight. Smaller coins like DigiByte, VeChain and SafeMoon have also gained traction – and then there's [influencer coins](https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/21/04/20747194/how-bitclout-aims-to-let-people-bet-on-twitter-influencers-using-creator-coins).  As BTC's environmental impact comes under scrutiny, "green" alternatives like Chia are getting attention, too.  Coin crowding is a new phenomenon with high volatility risk, and the long-term outcomes are still unclear.

3. __Big Tech's antitrust problems...__ have gotten a whole lot anti-er. This year, regulators are bringing real heat. Since the Apple-Epic [trial](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/5mrz8IgUB1Bjuc9ILsHQOj/articles/4GARoezVkzR6VmTXvlwEa1/) in May, the temp has gone from steam room to sauna. Just last week, a House committee [advanced](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/5tRYnsRgn3rJ4caqG3lXnl/articles/1RLuAoU5YouPqt1GL30lzZ/) major legislation to curb Big Tech's dominance. The headliner: a bill that would prohibit tech companies from playing favorites with their own products (think: Apple apps on App Store, Basics on Amazon). Meanwhile, newly confirmed FTC leader Lina Khan is a Big Tech critic who could expand the scope of antitrust enforcement. Blocked acquisition and even tech breakups seem more plausible.

_Inflation has been #trending — here's where some of the price jumps happened (source: BLS)_

Themes

The Big Picture: three key themes that defined the first half

- __1.9M:__ Global Covid deaths from January to June, already [higher](https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-deaths-this-year-have-already-eclipsed-2020s-toll-11623350773) than 2020's toll.
- __57%:__ Percentage of US adults who have been fully vaccinated.
- __~$2.5K:__ The [average](https://www.wsj.com/articles/millions-are-unemployed-why-cant-companies-find-workers-11620302440?mod=hp_lead_pos1) monthly unemployment payout with boosted benefits, extended until September. 
- __-20%:__ Fall in the stock price of the 50 biggest SPACs this year.
- __5,000%:__ Surge in the price of Dogecoin this year so far. 


Numbers

The Numbers: five big numbers that defined the first half

1. __Inflation's effect on stocks...__ Will it have one? If the first half of the year were a hashtag, it would be #flated. For most of the year, investors worried that the Fed would raise interest rates sooner than expected to tamp down rising prices as the economy revved up (see: our chart above). This month, the Fed suggested it would do just that (ETA: 2023). Higher interest rates can make stocks less attractive compared to less risky assets like bonds and savings accounts. Despite the #flated sitch, stocks are at records highs. But if inflation starts to look like a trend rather than a one-time reopening blip, that could change. 

2. __Big tax hikes for corporations...__ Will they actually happen? This month, G7 countries came to a historic [agreement](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/1vHKAgE3hJdaCFv0cdJNIm/articles/6v5vQpqDdzXIWNmx3Oc9VL/): multinational companies should pay a minimum tax rate of at least 15% in each country in which they operate. That could hurt Big Tech companies like __Google__ and __Amazon__, who've  been plopping their international HQs in countries with low corporate tax rates. Meanwhile, President Biden wants to [raise](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/2FGYY02td4t3rp9KjKvLQM/articles/1d7eiIZp8iwgUI9aKXGIQZ/) the corporate tax rate in the US to 28% from 21% to fund trillions worth of proposals. Neither of these tax hikes have passed yet, and they'll likely get pushback — but they've become  more likely.

3. __Economic competition with China...__ Can the US stay #1? With its tech power and growing international influence, China’s becoming a bigger economic threat to the US economy. This month, the Senate approved a $250B bill to subsidize Made In USA  R&D for key industries of the future (think: tech, chips). The bipartisan goal: *keep the US competitive against China*. Then, G7 countries announced “Build Back Better World”: a Biden-inspired partnership to rival China's "Belt and Road" initiative by financing infrastructure projects in developing countries. 

Future

Looking ahead: three major questions for the rest of the year

🍪 The Midyear Review

__"Not vibes"...__ Big Tech's current thought bubble. Antitrust issues have dominated the news for a long time, but this week turned up the heat in a big way. Yesterday, a House committee approved sweeping legislation to curb the dominance of __[Google](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GOOG)__, __[Facebook](https://robinhood.com/stocks/FB)__, and their Big Tech frenemies. 

- __Six-bill package:__ Not the kind Bezos likes to receive. Of the six bills that were advanced, one hits hardest: legislation that would prohibit Big Tech companies from playing favorites with their own products on their platforms. 
- __Think:__ Apple not promoting Apple Music over Spotify in the App Store, and Amazon not favoring Amazon Basics in search results. 
- __Buuuut:__ The bills still need to pass the full House to become law, and tech giants are lobbying [harder](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/22/technology/amazon-apple-google-facebook-antitrust-bills.html) than ever to make sure they don't.

__More tech woes...__ The legislation would also give federal agencies like the FTC way more muscle to block Big Tech acquisitions of startups (like FB & Instagram nine years ago). Last week: Big Tech [critic](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/2Z4BofvGDzgoroXZ4OTaiL/articles/75lgUHK9VCoHmFBsxK4D6C/) Lina Khan was sworn in to lead the FTC, the US gov't agency that enforces antitrust laws. 

- Google and Apple say the bills could bring significant security concerns, while making the user experience worse. 
- While the legislation has bipartisan support, critics in Congress say it would give too much power to the government in Big Tech operations. 


_Big Tech's bad news week [AdShooter/E+ via GettyImages]_

Anti

__Antitrust just got a whole lot anti-er...__ That could hit Big Tech where it hurts: in the balance sheet. The aggressiveness of tech lobbying shows how serious of a threat these developments are. If the bills pass, that might make room for smaller companies to compete. 


Big Tech is feeling serious heat: feat. six major antitrust bills and a new FTC head

__What Twilight character are you?...__ Jacob SPAC. __BuzzFeed__ announced plans to go public via SPAC-quisition, which would value the combined company at $1.5B — $200M less than BuzzFeed was worth in 2016. BuzzFeed also plans to buy digital publisher __Complex__ for $300M. Its goal: become a digital media giant. 

__Sad listicle...__ Digital media companies have been struggling for years to compete with __[Facebook](https://robinhood.com/stocks/FB)__, __[Google](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GOOG)__, and ad newbie __[Amazon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMZN)__ — aka: where most of the advertising bucks go. 15-year-old BuzzFeed is no exception to the struggle, with missed revenue targets and layoffs on its record. Now it's hungry for mergers.

- __Last year,__ BuzzFeed acquired HuffPost from Verizon. And its CEO [reportedly](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/23/business/media/buzzfeed-spac-deal.html) held talks to merge with competitors including Vice, Vox, and PopSugar-owner Group Nine. Now it's getting Complex. 
- __In BF's own words:__ "With this acquisition, BuzzFeed becomes even better-positioned to thrive in an age of media consolidation." 


Rollup

__Big Media might be necessary...__ to survive in a Big Tech world. The Facebook-Google-Amazon "triopoly" ate nearly [90%](https://www.wsj.com/articles/buzzfeed-nears-deal-to-go-public-via-spac-eyeing-digital-media-rollup-11624485898) of the digital-ad market last year, up from 80% in 2019. BuzzFeed thinks there's power in numbers, so it's rallying digital media companies under its umbrella to take on the triopoly. SPAC cash could help it make future acquisitions. But even with those, it's unclear if it can succeed long-term. 