Hey Snackers,
People are already getting creative with ways to avoid tariff-driven price hikes, from Apple shipping more phones to the US via India to gamers scheming about buying the new Nintendo console via our northern neighbor. Alas, friends, we have to recommend you cancel that cross-border Switch 2 smuggler’s run: Nintendo’s delaying preorders in Canada, too.
The stock market’s recovery off the lows on Monday and early gains on Tuesday was a story of traders hoping and looking for off-ramps from reciprocal tariffs slated to go into effect at midnight. On Tuesday afternoon, the tale of the tape was traders driving in reverse on that off-ramp to create a major wreck on the highway.
The catalyst? Confirmation that the White House is going through with 104% tariffs on goods from China, not to mention the rest of the reciprocal tariffs.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 erased gains of 4% to finish 1.6% and 1.9% lower, respectively. The Russell 2000 gave up a 3% gain to finish 3% lower.
To say the market has been volatile would be an understatement: per Bespoke Investment Group, the past two days have been the first time in history that the Nasdaq 100 was down 4% only to finish positive, and then followed that up with a session where it was up 4% but ended in the red.
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The apple falls far from the… apogee?
One of the biggest casualties this week has been Apple, a company that’s spent decades building a sprawling global supply chain and sales engine that is now fundamentally imperiled by tariffs that jeopardize the very foundations of its business model.
Sure, it can make some tweaks here and there, but this is a company based on the premise that American-designed electronics can be assembled in other countries like China at amenable costs and sold back to Americans and the wealthy world, and everyone in the process can get richer. The iPhone is an avatar of the era of globalization, but with triple-digit tariffs now on the menu, the entire conceit of Apple is being challenged.
Apple has erased pretty much all of the $4 trillion market cap it built up over the last year.
Now, after the White House confirmed 104% tariffs on goods from China, Apple’s market cap has fallen to about $2.65 trillion, or nearly a trillion and half less than it once was.
Apple had already been reeling from the 54% reciprocal tariffs, which could increase the price of iPhones by hundreds of dollars.
So, what now?
Bank of America is pounding the table on Apple’s attractive risk-reward profile after the stock’s plunge, with a team led by Wamsi Mohan writing, “In our view, the pullback presents a particularly enhanced buying opportunity for investors to own a high-quality name.”
The Takeaway
One trader’s crisis is another trader’s opportunity.
Taken plainly, this note is a resounding endorsement of one of America’s leading companies. At the end of the day, Bank of America still has a “buy” rating and $250 price target on the shares.
Source by source: The race for energy dominance is on
A paradigm shift is here: renewables are anticipated to outstrip coal in 2025,1 heralding a cleaner future.
By 2027, it may be lights out for old-school power. The age of coal could be going dark while renewables take center stage… and solar’s expected to lead the cast.
You’ll want a front-row seat to this breakthrough — and with a stake in tomorrow’s power, SolarBank investors are at the head of the line.
With solar energy set to increase, now is a critical time to consider investing. As an established operator already powering 10,000+ homes (plus corporate energy transitions), SolarBank (Nasdaq: SUUN) could be your portfolio’s segue into renewable energy.
SolarBank’s ‘power by the hour’ model is gaining momentum, with $58.4M in revenue for FY2024 (up 217% from 2023).2 .
What holds up during a recession?
In March, our friends at Chartr created a very helpful guide to what stocks are most and least sensitive to a market crash based on a stock’s “beta,” which measures how reactive it’s historically been to the overall market. Of course, just because a stock has moved with the overall market in the past isn’t a promise it always will. Just look at yesterday: Carnival, which has a beta of 2.8 (in other words, highly volatile and sensitive to market swings), was up yesterday as most of the tape turned red.
The same thing is true as we talk about the dreaded “r” word: recession, the odds of which have increased from 54% on April 3 to 65% yesterday on prediction market Kalshi. Meanwhile, JPMorgan equity analysts cut their full-year earnings forecast for the S&P 500 to “mimic a recession.” Then Goldman hiked its odds of a recession to 45% and slashed its outlook on travel stocks. So, while there’s no such thing as a truly recession-proof stock, there are some industries and equities that are better positioned to weather a downturn than others:
Bank of America pointed out that no matter what’s happening in the market, people still drink soda from Coca-Cola, season their food with McCormick spices, and, to manage the stress of it all, consume nicotine products.
Discount stores suffered yesterday with the rest of the market, but as Americans tighten their purse strings, they look to dollar stores and retailers like Walmart to maximize their spending power. Walmart also has an advantage over rival Amazon in a recession, as a much, much greater portion of its revenue comes from essential items and groceries.
The Takeaway
There’s no doubt recession worries are growing: one JPMorgan model shows that recession fears have spiked to 79%. On the positive side, jobless rates are still very low, holding steady at 4.2% in March, and none of us know how long President Trump’s tariffs will stay in effect, so it’s still possible that some countries and therefore sectors will get a reprieve.
The Best Thing We Read Today
Americans are less interested in owning an EV than ever
Tesla is responsible for creating the electric vehicle market and in many ways is synonymous with EVs. It’s also possible Tesla played a role in shooting itself in the foot. But it’s not just about Tesla.
Zillow’s co-founder: I wish we did this before our IPO
Spencer Rascoff co-founded Zillow and scaled it to a $8.9B valuation. But individual investors couldn’t get in until the IPO, missing early gains. So he’s opening his latest private venture — Pacaso — to investors like you.
Pacaso introduced co-ownership to the luxury vacation home market, earning them $100M+ in adjusted gross profits in four years.4 Invest for $2.80/share.5
Yesterday's Big Daily Movers
Tilray got smoked after a revenue miss
UnitedHealth and Humana got a shot in the arm on reports that the Trump administration will significantly raise the payout rates for Medicare Advantage insurers next year
Broadcom was the only BATMMAAN stock in the green after announcing a $10 billion stock buyback authorization Monday evening
What Else We're Snackin'
Trump wants to use 19th-century fuel to drive 21st-century technology
Ripple had a better day than most other cryptos yesterday as the first leveraged XRP ETF hit the market and it announced a major acquisition
Like something out a rom-com, identical twin brothers wed identical twin sisters in a dual ceremony
The millennial job-hopper might be a myth: Gen Z and millennials are actually switching jobs less than previous generations
Snack Fact Of The Day
Since the inauguration, Amazon, Apple, Alphabet, Meta, and Microsoft have lost 22% of their market value.
Wednesday's Events
Fed meeting minutes
Earnings from Delta and Constellation Brands
1 See p.51 IEA (International Energy Agency) Report Electricity 2025.
2 See SolarBank’s fiscal year end results announcement for June 30, 2024 for further details.
3 Stock markets are volatile and can fluctuate significantly in response to company, industry, political, regulatory, market, or economic developments. Investing in stock involves risks, including the loss of principal. Before investing, carefully assess whether a particular stock aligns with your investment objectives, risk tolerance, and financial situation.
4 We calculate Adjusted Gross Profit as gross profit under GAAP adjusted for amortization of developed technology, inventory valuation adjustment in the current period, inventory valuation adjustment in prior periods and share-based compensation. Please see management discussion of the financial condition section of the offering circular for more details.
5 The minimum investment is $1001.70. This is a paid advertisement for Pacaso’s Regulation A offering. Please read the offering circular and related risks at invest.pacaso.com.
Investing in private company securities is not suitable for all investors because it is highly speculative and involves a high degree of risk. It should only be considered a long-term investment. You must be prepared to withstand a total loss of your investment. Private company securities are also highly illiquid, and there is no guarantee that a market will develop for such securities.
DealMaker Securities LLC, a registered broker-dealer, and member of FINRA | SIPC, located at 105 Maxess Road, Suite 124, Melville, NY 11747, is the Intermediary for this offering and is not an affiliate of or connected with the Issuer. Please check our background on FINRA's BrokerCheck.