Three questions we’re still thinking about after earnings season

Earnings season is when we finally get clarity on the companies we follow, when months of observation, analysis, intuition, and (most importantly) expectations finally conclude with the release of the hard numbers. It’s a moment when the inferred becomes the inevitable, when the unknown becomes the unavoidable, and when open questions become solid answers.

That said, that ain’t always the case. Sometimes we enter earnings season with a whole lot of answers — things like “the data center trade” and “the strength of the American consumer” — and end up leaving with a lot more questions than we started with. Now that this earnings run has come to a close, here’s what we’re pondering:

1. So is the AI trade still on or not? The protagonist of the stock market is and remains Nvidia, which has been a kingmaker among the companies swimming in its wake and a moneymaker for everyone else. When great earnings came in and the market reacted with a big meh, that’s a sign that the AI trade that’s been fueling the market this year is getting a little long in the tooth.

2. How is the American consumer really doing? If there was an inflection point this earnings season, it had to be Walmart’s earnings, when the retailer reported some pretty great numbers for Q4 while also lowering guidance for 2025 given some uncertainty around consumer sentiment. This had the fairly direct effect of kneecapping the American stock market for weeks to come. The question is, how right are they?

3. Are the seven still Magnificent? Or is BATMMAAN finally defeated? The Magnificent 7 were up north of 20% after the US presidential election, but have been unable to maintain gains. The biggest drag is Nvidia, but computing titan Microsoft and tech-slash-retailing juggernaut Amazon are both down.