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Weed stocks rally on reports that Trump admin is close to reclassifying marijuana

It’s not the first (or second or third) time that the Trump administration has been rumored to be considering reclassification.

J. Edward Moreno

Cannabis stocks are rallying on a series of reports that the Trump administration is close to reclassifying marijuana, a move that would instantly make a group of battered US weed companies more profitable.

The Washington Post first reported Thursday evening that President Trump is expected to issue an executive order that directs federal agencies to pursue reclassification. Several other publications confirmed that reporting.

Cannabis stocks have soared on the reports. AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF, a benchmark for US cannabis operators, is up nearly 40% in premarket trading. Canadian weed companies Tilray, Canopy Growth, and SNDL Inc. are up more than 20% as well.

The order could come as soon as Monday, CNBC reported. A White House official told Reuters that “no final decisions have been made on the rescheduling of marijuana.”

Under former President Biden, the Department of Justice announced in April 2024 that it would recommend reclassifying marijuana, though that process was bogged down. The recent reports are not the first (or second or third) time that the Trump administration has been rumored to be considering reclassification.

Dan Ahrens, manager of the AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF, said, “This is the most confident we’ve been.” He added that what’s different now is that “support has been building steadily rather than appearing in isolated headlines,” pointing to August remarks Trump made saying his administration is “looking at reclassification.

“Taken together, those actions send a consistent signal that rescheduling is not hypothetical,” Ahrens said. “It is actively on the table.”

Reclassifying marijuana does not mean it can be sold in every state, but it would lift some regulatory burdens that weigh on US cannabis companies’ margins. American cannabis operators struggle with limited access to banking, an unfriendly tax code, and high levels of debt without the benefit of bankruptcy protections.

“If implemented, it dismantles nearly a century of outdated drug policies that fly in the face of science and medicine,” said Shawn Hauser, a partner at Vicente LLP, a law firm that caters to the cannabis industry.

“However, this would be only a partial victory; legalization and the resolution of fundamental regulatory gaps remain the urgent work ahead.”

While the weed industry has some supporters in Trump’s orbit, Republicans have historically been more aligned with moral arguments against reform. In the most recent funding bill passed last month, Republicans slipped in a ban on hemp-derived THC products.

According to the Post, the president met with cannabis industry executives on Wednesday along with Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy and Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services chief Mehmet Oz.

During that meeting, he called House Speaker Mike Johnson, who was skeptical of the idea. The executives pushed back and Trump appeared convinced, the Post reported.

Art Massolo, president of the US Hemp Roundtable, noted that reclassifying marijuana wouldn’t do much for the hemp industry behind the THC seltzers that have grown in popularity in recent years. It “maybe gives hemp a halo effect to make it a little bit easier to delay the McConnell hemp ban,” he said in an email.

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Report: Boeing could unveil 500-jet order from China during Trump’s visit later this month

Shares of Boeing are up nearly 4% on Friday afternoon, following a Bloomberg report that the company could be close to finalizing a deal to sell 500 planes to China.

The deal was first reported in August and would be one of Boeing’s largest ever.

According to Bloomberg’s sources, the deal could be officially unveiled when President Trump travels to China at the end of the month. That trip could be delayed given the war in Iran. The deal, sources say, could still fall apart — similar language to when it was first reported on more than six months ago.

Boeing has been on the outside of the Chinese market, in terms of new orders, since 2019 amid escalating US-China trade tensions.

According to Bloomberg’s sources, the deal could be officially unveiled when President Trump travels to China at the end of the month. That trip could be delayed given the war in Iran. The deal, sources say, could still fall apart — similar language to when it was first reported on more than six months ago.

Boeing has been on the outside of the Chinese market, in terms of new orders, since 2019 amid escalating US-China trade tensions.

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Why software shares are withstanding the war jitters

The outbreak of the war in Iran has clearly rattled investors and created a few clear winners — mostly energy stocks — and losers — consumer staples, airlines, and, well, more or else everything else.

But there is one interesting outlier to that Manichaean market dynamic.

Software shares — often the same companies that the market was giving up for dead just a few weeks ago due to overexpectations of an AI-driven disruption — have been holding up remarkably well.

These companies, including Intuit, ServiceNow, Datadog, Snowflake, IBM, Workday, and Oracle, have actually had a pretty decent run since the war started with a combined US-Israeli attack on Iran last weekend.

A new note from RBC Capital’s Rishi Jaluria suggests this isn’t just a fluke. Looking at the performance of software stocks during periods of geopolitical stress and market volatility over the last 10 and 25 years, his team found that software shares appear fairly well insulated when these broader shocks hit. RBC wrote:

“The defensive nature of SaaS models and the mission-critical nature of many core software systems at the enterprise level (e.g., in the absence of mass layoffs that may create seat-based headwinds, geopolitical uncertainty and/or market volatility typically will not cause an enterprise CIO to consider ripping out their ERP, CRM, Cyber systems, etc.”

I briefly got Jaluria on the phone yesterday, and he explained a bit more about why he thinks investors might see software as a decent place to hide out from the current chaos.

“With everything in the Middle East, you have to think about not just oil and gas input prices but also supply chains,” he said. “With software, you’re not really thinking about that.”

In other words, there is no equivalent of a closure of the Strait of Hormuz that software investors have to worry about.

Others suggested that the near-term profitability of these giant software companies — aside from concerns about potential long-term disruption from AI — may look different in the face of the economic uncertainty that seems to be growing with the war, especially after a sell-off that has left them relatively attractively valued.

Mark Moerdler, who covers software stocks for Bernstein Research, says that while the AI worries are clearly real, software companies continue to be highly productive cash cows.

“Everyone is afraid that AI is a massive disruptor, and all these articles you read talk about AI as massive disruptor or the world is ending or whatever,” he said. “You don’t see it in the fundamental numbers of the companies I cover. They are delivering GAAP profits, free cash flow, and they’re good investment ideas.”

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