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Volatility loves company — get ready for further big swings in the market

Stocks could do anything in the coming weeks, but volatility really does beget volatility. Strap in.

4/4/25 6:58AM

Volatility is back.

Yesterday’s dramatic 4.8% tariff-charged sell-off was the S&P 500’s biggest daily drop since June 11, 2020 — back when when the world was grappling with the novel coronavirus. Today, global markets have picked up right where they left off, dropping around the world after China announced 34% retaliatory tariffs on US goods.

Leading yesterday’s decline were the tech giants, with Apple mirroring the wider market by notching its worst day since Covid as the iPhone maker shed more than $310 billion in market cap. Nvidia and its smaller chipmaking peer Broadcom both had a rough day.

Outside of Big Tech, it was mostly a sea of red, with retailers also hit hard — most notably Nike, which has enormous offshore supply chains in Vietnam and China.

We won’t presume to have any idea what the market will do over the coming weeks and months, except to say that it really is likely to be a bumpy ride. Indeed, volatility tends to linger. A simple analysis of the S&P 500 finds that once the index has moved more than 2% — in either direction — the following day has seen an average move of 1.72%. That’s roughly double the index’s typical daily swing of 0.88%. SPDR S&P 500 Trust futures are currently down 3.1%.

Don’t just take my word for it: the Volatility Index, a market-based measure of how much investors expect stock prices to fluctuate over the coming month, spiked to over 40 this morning, which if sustained would be its highest close in five years.

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Hyunsoo Rim31m

Goldman hikes year-end gold price forecast to $5,400/oz as private investors and central banks compete for the shiny stuff

Goldman Sachs has raised its December 2026 gold price forecast to $5,400 per ounce, up from the previous $4,900 target, citing strong demand from private sector investors using gold as a hedge against global policy risks, according to a note released late Tuesday.

The revised price target reflects a 17% increase from January's month-to-date average price, with continued central bank buying as the biggest driver of the forecast (accounting for 14pp of the expected appreciation), while ETF inflows add another 3pp — supported by an assumed Fed rate cut this year.

Central banks have been on a gold-buying spree since 2022, after the freezing of Russia's foreign reserves, helping push prices up 15% in 2023 and 26% in 2024. But Goldman analysts note that the rally accelerated in 2025 as competition between central banks and private investors for the limited bullion intensified — driving prices up another 67% last year, with recent tensions over Greenland only adding to the momentum.

That private-sector demand now extends well beyond ETF inflows. Goldman says buying is increasingly coming from a new class of investors seeking protection against macro-policy risk and currency "debasement," including purchases from high-net-worth families and call-option buying — flows that are "hard to track" but have become a "significant incremental source of demand."

Goldman assumes these macro-related "sticky" hedges will persist through 2026 — unlike those tied to the 2024 US election, which unwound quickly once the outcome was clear.

Claire Yubin Oh2h

Alibaba jumps on report of a potential IPO for its AI chipmaking division

Alibaba ADRs are up 5% in premarket trading on Thursday after Bloomberg reported that the cloud and e-commerce giant is preparing to list its chipmaking division, looking to capitalize on strong investor interest in AI.

Citing people familiar with the matter, the Chinese tech giant is reportedly looking to first restructure the unit, known as T-Head, into a partially employee-owned business, before exploring an IPO, though the specific timing for this process remains uncertain.

Though Alibaba’s IPO plans are still at an early stage, with T-Head’s valuation expectations still unclear, recent debuts by rival Chinese chipmakers like Moore Threads Technology have attracted strong interest from investors, jumping 400%+ on its first day after raising $1.13 billion.

Alibaba has also been investing aggressively into AI in the past year, committing more than $53 billion to develop its cloud and AI infrastructure. Last week, the company upgraded Qwen — its flagship AI app — to function more like an agentic chatbot able to place orders for food, book travel, and execute other tasks, as the company pushes further into consumer-facing AI.

Alibaba Is Said to Plan IPO for AI Chipmaking Unit T-Head

Luke Kawa15h

GameStop jumps after CEO Ryan Cohen purchases another 500,000 shares

Ryan Cohen is putting his money where his mouth is.

The GameStop CEO bought another 500,000 shares of company stock for $10.8 million on Wednesday, per a filing.

The stock was trading higher on Wednesday thanks to Cohen’s purchase of 500,000 shares for roughly $10.6 million on Tuesday, extended the gains in the after-hours session on the news, and is now up 3% in premarket trading, as of 4:45 a.m. ET.

“The Reporting Person believes that it is essential for the Chief Executive Officer of any public company to purchase shares of such company in the open market with his or her own personal funds in order to further strengthen alignment with stockholders,” per the filing. “The Reporting Person believes that any Chief Executive Officer who fails to do so should be fired.”

Cohen is poised to become even more financially enmeshed with GameStop’s stock and operating performance should shareholders approve a package that would tie his pay completely to ambitious targets for the company’s earnings and market cap.

The CEO now owns about 8.56% of shares outstanding.

Luke Kawa15h

AppLovin tumbles; company dismisses negative report as “false, misleading, and nonsensical”

AppLovin managed to finish Tuesday well off its lows after initially getting clobbered in the wake of an incendiary report published by CapitalWatch.

Nonetheless, shares are getting torched on Wednesday, ending down nearly 6%. An AppLovin spokesperson forcefully denied the allegations made by CapitalWatch, which included calling the ad tech firm “the ultimate monument to 21st-century new-type transnational financial crime.”

Per an emailed statement:

“We categorically reject the claims made in this report, which is rife with false, misleading, and nonsensical allegations. AppLovin’s public filings transparently disclose our material investments, global operations, and information regarding significant shareholders.”

“Claims that AppLovin facilitated money laundering or its products are used for unauthorized downloads are patently false. AppLovin functions within a broader ecosystem that includes major app stores, operating systems, and payment providers, and the apps monetized through our platform must be publicly available on the major app stores and subject to their independent review and enforcement. Economically, the money laundering theory is implausible: publishers receive only a portion of advertiser spend, meaning any attempt to ‘launder’ funds would require forfeiting a substantial share while creating a highly visible, auditable transaction trail across multiple independent companies. Accepting the report’s premise would therefore imply a systemic failure across the broader mobile advertising and app-store ecosystem, for which the report provides no evidence.”

AppLovin craters after report from CapitalWatch alleges it’s a money-laundering operation for “transnational criminal kingpins”

Per an emailed statement:

“We categorically reject the claims made in this report, which is rife with false, misleading, and nonsensical allegations. AppLovin’s public filings transparently disclose our material investments, global operations, and information regarding significant shareholders.”

“Claims that AppLovin facilitated money laundering or its products are used for unauthorized downloads are patently false. AppLovin functions within a broader ecosystem that includes major app stores, operating systems, and payment providers, and the apps monetized through our platform must be publicly available on the major app stores and subject to their independent review and enforcement. Economically, the money laundering theory is implausible: publishers receive only a portion of advertiser spend, meaning any attempt to ‘launder’ funds would require forfeiting a substantial share while creating a highly visible, auditable transaction trail across multiple independent companies. Accepting the report’s premise would therefore imply a systemic failure across the broader mobile advertising and app-store ecosystem, for which the report provides no evidence.”

Tasha Matsumoto, Nate Becker

16h

Stocks jump as Trump walks back European tariff threats

All sector ETFs traded higher in the broad-based rally.

Benny, the mascot for the Chicago Bulls, performs during a break between the Bulls and the New Orleans Pelicans at the United Center on January 14, 2017 in Chicago, Illinois.

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