Markets
Nia Warfield, Luke Kawa
7/31/25

US stocks end July on a soft note


The S&P 500 opened 1% higher after last night’s blockbuster earnings from Microsoft and Meta lit a fire under the entire AI complex. Unfortunately, the day only got worse from there.

US stocks slid throughout the session, ending near their lows. The S&P 500 gave back 0.4%, the Nasdaq 100 fell 0.5%, and the Russell 2000 underperformed with a 0.9% decline.

This ends July as the S&P 500’s first month without a daily gain or loss of at least 1% since two years ago, in July 2023.

Healthcare was far and away the worst-performing S&P 500 sector ETF, with drugmakers including Eli Lilly, Pfizer, and Novo Nordisk falling after President Trump sent a letter to 17 pharma CEOs demanding they cut US drug prices within 60 days.

On the positive side, eBay soared 18%, touching an all-time high a day after the online marketplace posted strong Q2 results and analysts issued a pair of price target hikes. Declines were led by Align Technology, which sank a massive 36% after the Invisalign maker missed both top- and bottom-line Q2 estimates.

Elsewhere…

Meta shares jumped another 11% after the social media and AI behemoth topped Q2 estimates Wednesday. Ad revenue — which makes up the majority of its total — leapt 21%.

Microsoft shares rose another 4% after the company’s blowout fiscal Q4 earnings, pushing its valuation above $4 trillion for the first time.

Norwegian Cruise Line sailed up 9% after the cruise operator reaffirmed full-year guidance despite so-so Q2 results, citing a rebound in bookings.

Roblox jumped 10% after the gaming platform beat estimates, with total bookings climbing to $1.4 billion.

CVS Health climbed as much as 6% before closing flat after the pharmacy retailer topped Q2 estimates and raised its full-year outlook.

SoFi Technologies bounced up 3%, marking its third straight day of big moves after Deutsche Bank and Mizuho hiked their price targets on the stock.

Comcast shares closed up 2.2% after the media and cable giant delivered a strong Q2 earnings beat, fueled in part by the debut of its Epic Universe park and hit Peacock shows.

AB InBev fell 13% as the world’s largest brewer continued to report declining sales volume with each passing quarter.

Cigna shares dropped 10%, despite the healthcare insurer beating Q2 estimates and showing solid cost control during the quarter.

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markets
Luke Kawa
1h

Opendoor soars as co-founders Keith Rabois and Eric Wu added to board of directors, Shopify COO Kaz Nejatian appointed as new CEO


Opendoor Technologies is soaring after announcing that two of the online real estate company’s co-founders, Keith Rabois and Eric Wu, have been added to its board of directors. Rabois will serve as Chairman.

The company said Wu and Rabois’ VC firm are buying $40 million in Opendoor stock via a private investment in public equity (PIPE) financing.

In addition, Opendoor has poached Shopify COO Kaz Nejatian to serve as its new CEO after Carrie Wheeler resigned in mid-August.

“Literally there was only one choice for the job: Kaz. I am thrilled that he will be serving as CEO of Opendoor,” said Rabois.

The company touted that it’s “going into founder mode” with these additions in its press release, with lead independent director Eric Feder championing this injection of “founder DNA.”

That exact phrase, “founder DNA,” was used by Eric Jackson, architect of the initial rally and social interest in Opendoor, as he openly campaigned for these very two individuals to be added to the board.

This underscores how far the company is willing to go in embracing a new strategy of listening to its investors (particularly the most prominent one, it seems!) as management aims to engineer a fundamental turnaround in its business to match the optimism embedded in its stock price.

Nia Warfield, Luke Kawa
2h
Three stocks power S&P 500 to fresh record closing high

Eighty-three basis points of today’s return in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF, more than 2x its daily gain, were attributable to Oracle and the two leading US chip designers, Nvidia and Broadcom.

Bull horns
Oracle’s RPO Remaining Performance Obligations

What is an RPO, the number that drove Oracle’s giant share move?

Matt Phillips, Max Knoblauch5h
markets
Luke Kawa
6h

“Pokemon” trading cards skyrocketing in value and GameStop’s collectibles business taking off are two sides of the same coin


The Wall Street Journal’s fantastic piece “The Hot Investment With a 3,000% Return? Pokémon Cards” includes this vignette:

“...the cards caught fire among amateur investors during the pandemic. As some investors banded together to spark the GameStop meme stock mania, a more fringe group of traders, also stuck at home and armed with cash from government stimulus, began scooping up Pokémon cards.”

And the connection between “Pokemon” cards and the video game retailer is in fact even closer than that:

GameStop’s collectibles business played a big role in why it smashed Q2 revenue expectations! Sales in this segment exceeded $227 million, while the two analysts that provided forecasts had an average estimate of $170.4 million. Fiscal year to date, sales of collectibles make up 25.8% of its revenues, up from 16.4% at this time last year.

The company significantly expanded its footprint in the “Pokemon” trading card world in 2024 by launching in-store buying and selling of individual cards, and introduced “Power Packs,” which include one card graded at 8 or above by the Professional Sports Authenticator, in its most recent quarter.

As a 35-year-old man who still plays “Pokemon” (Nuzlockes are peak math + strategy entertainment!), thinks the release of “Pokemon Go” marked the peak for Western civilization, and considers Christmas 1998 to be the second-best day of his life because it’s when he got “Pokemon Red,” I personally view the outperformance of “Pokemon” cards as being indicative of the power of nostalgia coupled with a drop-off in child rearing by millennials, leaving more room for discretionary purchases and investments.

And the nostalgia business seems like a great place to be.

The Hot Investment With a 3,000% Return? Pokémon Cards

The Hot Investment With a 3,000% Return? Pokémon Cards

“...the cards caught fire among amateur investors during the pandemic. As some investors banded together to spark the GameStop meme stock mania, a more fringe group of traders, also stuck at home and armed with cash from government stimulus, began scooping up Pokémon cards.”

And the connection between “Pokemon” cards and the video game retailer is in fact even closer than that:

GameStop’s collectibles business played a big role in why it smashed Q2 revenue expectations! Sales in this segment exceeded $227 million, while the two analysts that provided forecasts had an average estimate of $170.4 million. Fiscal year to date, sales of collectibles make up 25.8% of its revenues, up from 16.4% at this time last year.

The company significantly expanded its footprint in the “Pokemon” trading card world in 2024 by launching in-store buying and selling of individual cards, and introduced “Power Packs,” which include one card graded at 8 or above by the Professional Sports Authenticator, in its most recent quarter.

As a 35-year-old man who still plays “Pokemon” (Nuzlockes are peak math + strategy entertainment!), thinks the release of “Pokemon Go” marked the peak for Western civilization, and considers Christmas 1998 to be the second-best day of his life because it’s when he got “Pokemon Red,” I personally view the outperformance of “Pokemon” cards as being indicative of the power of nostalgia coupled with a drop-off in child rearing by millennials, leaving more room for discretionary purchases and investments.

And the nostalgia business seems like a great place to be.

markets
Luke Kawa
7h

Oracle’s hyperscaler competitors lag after the cloud computing giant’s blowout revenue forecast

Oracle’s forecast for mind-blowing revenue growth through its fiscal 2030 is lifting most AI-adjacent stocks today.

However, the ones being left behind in this rising tide, falling or lagging well behind Morgan Stanley’s basket of AI tech beneficiaries (up 5.8% as of 12:22 p.m. ET), are its fellow hyperscalers.

Microsoft and Alphabet, which also have massive cloud divisions, are positive — but only just. Amazon, whose cloud revenue growth was deemed a disappointment relative to peers this quarter, is down 2.8%. Meta is down 1.2%.

This suggests, at the very least, that traders aren’t mapping Oracle’s outlook for Nvidia-like revenue growth onto the other major cloud players or one of their biggest customers.

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