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TSMC surges after posting stellar Q4 results, impressive Q1 outlook

The foundry giant plans to spend way more on capex this year to meet growing demand from the AI boom.

TSMC is ripping higher in premarket trading after the world’s largest chip manufacturer posted superb Q4 results and offered a Q1 outlook that was brighter than analysts anticipated.

The Taiwanese firm posted Q4 earnings per share of TWD$19.50 (or $0.63), well above estimates for TWD$18.12 (or $0.57).

The company’s ability to turn sales into profits was also better than analysts had projected, with a Q4 gross margin of 62.3% (estimate: 60.6%) and operating margin of 54% (estimate: 50.9%). Both figures also exceeded the upper end of management’s Q4 guidance.

The foundry giant had already provided sales figures through December as of last Friday, which totaled TWD$1.046 trillion (or approximately $33.7 billion). That figure was ahead of Wall Street’s projection for TWD$1.02 trillion.

For the current quarter, management expects revenues to come in between $34.6 billion and $35.8 billion, far exceeding the consensus estimate for $33.2 billion.

Its outlook for margins was similarly robust, with gross margins expected to range from 63% to 65% (estimate: 59.6%). Its operating margin guidance was 54% to 56%, the low point of which is still above the highest analyst’s estimate.

These strong results also fueled gains for ASML, the Dutch maker of lithography machines key to the manufacturing of chips.

The AI boom is in full swing, and everyone’s looking for TSMC to serve as a key partner to meet demand for their products. On their earnings call, management indicated that its capital budget would be between $52 billion and $56 billion this year, with 70% to 80% of that being allocated to advanced process technologies.

This release was preceded by reports that Taiwan expects to ink a trade deal with the US imminently, in which TSMC is expected to play a key part. Taiwanese officials are aiming to get tariffs lowered as well as earn special treatment for semiconductor exports, as the company expands its manufacturing footprint on US soil in return.

The positive reaction this morning looks to be bucking a trend for TSMC’s stock, which has fallen in 12 of the last 13 sessions after reporting quarterly results.

Luke Kawa14h

Bitcoin approaches make-or-break level for potential catch-up trade with soaring precious metals

The underperformance of bitcoin versus gold and other speculative assets last year was a head-scratcher.

However, bitcoin’s strong start to 2026 leaves it well positioned for a potential catch-up trade with soaring precious metals, according to Brent Donnelly, president of Spectra Markets — so long as the crypto asset is able to break through near-term resistance levels that loom.

The shaded area in the below chart shows “an important series of supports that I had focused on back in the summer of 2025 and again in November 2025. The level broke somewhat cleanly and we have not been back above since,” he wrote in a note to clients on Wednesday. “Broken megasupports like that tend to become important resistance on the way back up so bears can get busy as we near the 98400/99400 zone, or bulls can add on a break of 100k. I would think a move through 100,000 would trigger a strong psychological response from the market given the laggy nature of bitcoin vs. gold, silver, and stocks.”

“In a world where there is a shortage of good places to park your money if you’re worried about counterparty risk, it makes sense that gold and silver would be rallying,” he concluded. “Then again, it would have made sense that bitcoin would be rallying too, and it went straight down for the second half of 2025.”

Matt Phillips14h

Satellite stocks continue to surge amid geopolitical concerns, with Rocket Lab, Planet Labs, and EchoStar hitting records

Satellite services stocks Rocket Lab, Planet Labs, and EchoStar all notched closing records as geopolitical instability continues to push them higher.

Planet Labs President and CFO Ashley Johnson presented at the Needham Growth Conference today, talking up her company’s recent deal with the Swedish Air Force. She called the deal “a signal of the urgency that you’re hearing from nations around the world for the need to have their own intelligence capabilities, their own eyes in the sky to understand what’s going on, to make sure that they have the proper preparedness.”

Satellite stocks have been surging in the face of an uptick in global instability and White House actions and saber-rattling aimed at Venezuela, Iran, and remarkably Denmark, over President Trump’s fixation on annexing Greenland.

Since the ball dropped on New Year’s Eve, their gains have been eye-watering: Rocket Lab is up nearly 30%, Planet Labs is up 34%, and EchoStar has risen 21%.

After all, the low-Earth orbit industry began as a way to easily establish redundancies for communications, intelligence, and missile defense capabilities. Military and government contracting remain important cornerstones of the business.

Tasha Matsumoto

15h

Tech tumble drags down stocks

All stocks in the Mag 7 fell as investors rotated into defensive names.

CHICAGO, ILLINOIS - JANUARY 10: Caleb Williams #18 of the Chicago Bears throws a pass prior to an NFL wild card playoff game against the Green Bay Packers at Soldier Field on January 10, 2026 in Chicago, Illinois.

Matt Phillips20h

Intel rises again, riding a wave of Trump support and Apple speculation

Intel is up again early Wednesday, coming within spitting distance of two-year highs, after comments from the president fed into stock market murmurs about the prospect for Apple to become a key customer for Intel’s ailing contract chip-manufacturing business.

In off-the-cuff comments to reporters Tuesday, President Trump took a victory lap over Intel’s rally since the US government’s investment in August.

“The stock went very up, and very high and we made tens of billions of dollars,” Trump said, adding that “as soon as we went in, Apple went in, Nvidia went in, a lot of smart people went in. They followed us.”

Nvidia took the unusual step of buying a $5 billion stake in Intel in September. But it’s unclear what Trump meant by “Apple went in.”

The comment is consistent with market speculation that Apple — another company whose operational decisions Trump has pressured and influenced — could become a key customer for the next-generation chipmaking technology known as 18A. Intel has bet billions on 18A in an effort to resuscitate its ailing contract chip-manufacturing business, known as a foundry. But the chipmaker has yet to land a key customer willing to let it make its chips with the new process.

In a note published this week, KeyBanc analyst John Vinh said he believes that Apple will be a key customer for 18A, but no announcement about any deal has been made.

So was Trump confused? Did he let something important slip? Was it merely a bit of Trumpian puffery? All unclear.

What is plain, however, is that investors are taking cues on what to buy based on the deep personal involvement of an intensely stock market-sensitive US president.

It might not be the ideal of free market capitalism. But in Intel’s case, it does seem to make the number go up, at least so far.

Follow the White House as it picks stock-market winners and losers, says Fundstrat's Tom Lee.

Nvidia took the unusual step of buying a $5 billion stake in Intel in September. But it’s unclear what Trump meant by “Apple went in.”

In a note published this week, KeyBanc analyst John Vinh said he believes that Apple will be a key customer for 18A, but no announcement about any deal has been made.

So was Trump confused? Did he let something important slip? Was it merely a bit of Trumpian puffery? All unclear.

What is plain, however, is that investors are taking cues on what to buy based on the deep personal involvement of an intensely stock market-sensitive US president.

It might not be the ideal of free market capitalism. But in Intel’s case, it does seem to make the number go up, at least so far.

Luke Kawa20h

Tariff-sensitive stocks swoon again after Supreme Court declines to deliver tariff ruling

Déjà vu all over again.

The Supreme Court once again declined to issue an opinion on the legality of the bulk of President Trump’s tariff regime, and once again a basket of stocks deemed to be “tariff losers” is meaningfully underperforming the S&P 500 in response to this lack of a decision.

Since news of the lack of news dropped around 10:12 a.m. ET, Crocs, RH, and Under Armour have been among the worst-performing members in this group, all off more than 1% in the past 10 minutes.

It looks like the stock market was expecting some tariff relief