Markets
markets
Claire Yubin Oh

TSMC keeps the AI train on track; beats on Q3 EPS and hikes 2025 sales growth outlook to ~35%, up from ~30%

TSMC is rising in early trading on Thursday after the Taiwanese chipmaker posted another record quarterly profit and raised its outlook for the rest of the year.

The world’s largest contract chipmaker saw its net profit rise 39% to 452.3 billion New Taiwan dollars (about US$14.8 billion) from a year earlier, with diluted earnings per share also increasing 39% to NT$17.44 for the third quarter ended September 30 — roughly 10% ahead of Wall Street’s estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

In TSMC’s earnings release, Chief Financial Officer Wendell Huang said, “Moving into fourth quarter 2025, we expect our business to be supported by continued strong demand for our leading-edge process technologies.”

Indeed, while the Q3 numbers were solid, the company’s revised guidance might have perked up investors the most. TSMC now expects Q4 2025 revenue to be between US$32.2 billion and US$33.4 billion, and sales growth in the mid-30% range for the full year, up from “about” 30% in July.

TSMC’s shares have soared nearly 40% this year as demand for high-performance semiconductors, crucial in the race to build out the AI data center infrastructure necessary for large language models, continues to grow. Per Bloomberg, the company’s CEO said that “AI demand actually continues to be very strong, stronger than we thought three months ago.”

The bullish outlook in the face of a rapidly shifting geopolitical environment was noteworthy, too. While company executives downplayed the impact on its overall business, trade policy is complicating the chip supply chain: Taiwan is still negotiating its 20% tariff on US-bound goods, Beijing is restricting the supply of rare earth minerals, and the US-China tussle over the flow of advanced AI chips continues.

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Tasha Matsumoto
15h
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Despite the largest-ever release of oil from the International Energy Agency’s strategic reserves, crude oil continued to climb.

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Matt Phillips

AI “bottleneck” stocks are the big winners halfway through a tumultuous week

Memory stocks and chip machinery companies are bouncing Wednesday, following a strong Oracle earnings report that bolstered confidence in the durability of the AI data center build-out.

In fact, Sandisk is the top performer of the S&P 500 so far this week, rising more than 21% from Friday’s close, as of shortly after 2 p.m. ET. Memory chip maker Micron is second in line, up more than 13% in weekly gains, and hard disk drive maker Western Digital is also getting a lift.

Other big winners so far this week are some of the so-called semicap shares — makers of the ultraprecise machines that turn silicon into actual semiconductors — with Lam Research and KLA Corp both racking up gains of about 10% on the week. Applied Materials is up about 8% this week.

Thematically speaking, both memory stocks like Sandisk and Micron as well as semicap shares like KLA have been part of the “buy the bottleneck” trade, in which investors buy companies they believe sit at key pinch points in the AI supply chain and therefore have pretty tremendous pricing power. Through that lens, the stocks’ bounce might reflect some additional excitement about the durability of the data center boom after Oracle’s results, which included a larger-than-expected capex number as well as sales guidances that was higher than Wall Street was forecasting.

But the bounce also may be the less interesting market phenomenon of mean reversion rearing its head, as these stocks were also some of the most beaten down in the S&P 500 last week, when Sandisk lost 17% and Lam lost about 15%, for example. So, some snapback may merely be a market reflex.

Oracle jumps after Q3 results exceed expectations, boost to sales guidance

Oracle jumps after Q3 results exceed expectations, boost to sales guidance

Other big winners so far this week are some of the so-called semicap shares — makers of the ultraprecise machines that turn silicon into actual semiconductors — with Lam Research and KLA Corp both racking up gains of about 10% on the week. Applied Materials is up about 8% this week.

Thematically speaking, both memory stocks like Sandisk and Micron as well as semicap shares like KLA have been part of the “buy the bottleneck” trade, in which investors buy companies they believe sit at key pinch points in the AI supply chain and therefore have pretty tremendous pricing power. Through that lens, the stocks’ bounce might reflect some additional excitement about the durability of the data center boom after Oracle’s results, which included a larger-than-expected capex number as well as sales guidances that was higher than Wall Street was forecasting.

But the bounce also may be the less interesting market phenomenon of mean reversion rearing its head, as these stocks were also some of the most beaten down in the S&P 500 last week, when Sandisk lost 17% and Lam lost about 15%, for example. So, some snapback may merely be a market reflex.

markets
Max Knoblauch

Papa John’s spikes following report of a $47-per-share take-private offer from Qatari investment fund Irth Capital

A few weeks after announcing it would close 300 stores by the end of next year, Papa John’s is drawing fresh take-private interest from Irth Capital, an investment fund backed by a member of the Qatari royal family.

Papa John’s shares were up 19% on Wednesday afternoon, on pace for their best day since February 2025.

According to The Wall Street Journal, Irth is offering $47 per share for PZZA, valuing the company at about $1.5 billion. The fund currently holds a roughly 10% stake in Papa John’s, per the report.

Irth has tried to take Papa John’s private before, offering $60 per share in a joint bid with Apollo Global in June of last year. In October, Apollo Global again offered to take the company private at $64 per share. That offer was later withdrawn.

Broadly, the pizza category is being increasingly dominated by Domino’s, which opened 700 stores globally last year and has a market cap 9x greater than Irth’s latest reported offer for Papa John’s.

Exclusive | Papa John’s Draws Fresh Takeover Interest

Exclusive | Papa John’s Draws Fresh Takeover Interest

According to The Wall Street Journal, Irth is offering $47 per share for PZZA, valuing the company at about $1.5 billion. The fund currently holds a roughly 10% stake in Papa John’s, per the report.

Irth has tried to take Papa John’s private before, offering $60 per share in a joint bid with Apollo Global in June of last year. In October, Apollo Global again offered to take the company private at $64 per share. That offer was later withdrawn.

Broadly, the pizza category is being increasingly dominated by Domino’s, which opened 700 stores globally last year and has a market cap 9x greater than Irth’s latest reported offer for Papa John’s.

Jon Keegan
20h
How Oracle is de-risking its AI boom

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