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CAMARILLO, CA FEBRUARY 09: A cannabis farm worker de-leafs cann
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Trump signs executive order expediting reclassification of marijuana as a less dangerous drug

Rescheduling would lift regulatory pressures that have been weighing on US cannabis operators’ margins. Shares of weed companies, many of which don’t sell cannabis in the US, tumbled an hour before the executive order was signed.

President Trump on Thursday signed an executive order directing the Department of Justice to reschedule marijuana as a less dangerous drug, a move that stands to lift profits of ailing US cannabis companies and expand access to medical research.

The executive order expedites the process of rescheduling marijuana from being a Schedule I drug, like heroin and LSD, to a Schedule III drug, like testosterone. The move, which had been rumored for nearly a week, reportedly came after a meeting with cannabis industry executives. Rescheduling would boost US cannabis operators’ profits by reducing their high tax burden.

The president’s remarks and the White House’s fact sheet primarily focus on medical cannabis and CBD, or cannabidiol, a nonintoxicating compound found in cannabis. Rescheduling marijuana could make it easier to run clinical trials on cannabis-based medicines.

“We have people begging for me to do this, people that are in great pain,” Trump said.

This recently rumored move, reports of which had sent cannabis stocks soaring since December 11, is being treated as a “sell the news” event. The AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF, the benchmark ETF for publicly traded US cannabis companies, fell sharply about an hour before the signing of this executive order hit the wires. So too did major Canadian operators, such as Tilray, Canopy Growth, Cronos Group, and SNDL Inc., even though those companies don’t sell cannabis in the US.

Dan Ahrens, who manages MSOS, said investors may be disappointed the order doesn’t instantly reschedule cannabis as opposed to directing the attorney general to do so “in the most expeditious manner in accordance with Federal law” without a specific time frame.

“I’d personally think there’s a strong chance of a bounce back once it’s all digested and people realize the ramifications of the rescheduling actually going through,” Ahrens said in an email.

Under former President Biden, the Department of Justice announced in April 2024 that it would recommend reclassifying marijuana, though that process stalled. There have been several reports this year saying Trump was close to proposing reform, an issue that’s controversial within the Republican party.

For US cannabis companies, the biggest outcome could be a tax treatment that’s more in line with other industries. Under the current regulatory scheme, cannabis companies can generally expense only the cost of acquiring their product but virtually no other business expenses.

The result is that cannabis companies are paying an effective tax rate of upward of 50%. Some cannabis companies may have a tax bill that exceeds their profits, and even unprofitable businesses may still get a tax bill.

Joanne Wilson, CEO of Gotham, a dispensary chain in New York City, said more than half of the money her business makes goes to taxes. She said the change would be felt immediately.

That totally changes the business, Wilson said. That’s a huge win, because nobody is making money — the taxes are insane.

The impact of rescheduling on day-to-day operations remains uncertain, according to Roy Cysner, chief financial officer of The Travel Agency, a New York City dispensary chain.

Cysner said payments are probably the most challenging hurdle, describing finding reliable service providers as a game of whack-a-mole. The company has had the same banker for several years, but he’s aware of only two others that would even take his business. He said he knows he’s overpaying for both services.

It’s getting closer to a normal business, Cysner said. And even if there’s that additional thing that needs to happen to actually legalize it, I think that this might be the path to get us there.

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Report: Boeing could unveil 500-jet order from China during Trump’s visit later this month

Shares of Boeing are up nearly 4% on Friday afternoon, following a Bloomberg report that the company could be close to finalizing a deal to sell 500 planes to China.

The deal was first reported in August and would be one of Boeing’s largest ever.

According to Bloomberg’s sources, the deal could be officially unveiled when President Trump travels to China at the end of the month. That trip could be delayed given the war in Iran. The deal, sources say, could still fall apart — similar language to when it was first reported on more than six months ago.

Boeing has been on the outside of the Chinese market, in terms of new orders, since 2019 amid escalating US-China trade tensions.

According to Bloomberg’s sources, the deal could be officially unveiled when President Trump travels to China at the end of the month. That trip could be delayed given the war in Iran. The deal, sources say, could still fall apart — similar language to when it was first reported on more than six months ago.

Boeing has been on the outside of the Chinese market, in terms of new orders, since 2019 amid escalating US-China trade tensions.

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Why software shares are withstanding the war jitters

The outbreak of the war in Iran has clearly rattled investors and created a few clear winners — mostly energy stocks — and losers — consumer staples, airlines, and, well, more or else everything else.

But there is one interesting outlier to that Manichaean market dynamic.

Software shares — often the same companies that the market was giving up for dead just a few weeks ago due to overexpectations of an AI-driven disruption — have been holding up remarkably well.

These companies, including Intuit, ServiceNow, Datadog, Snowflake, IBM, Workday, and Oracle, have actually had a pretty decent run since the war started with a combined US-Israeli attack on Iran last weekend.

A new note from RBC Capital’s Rishi Jaluria suggests this isn’t just a fluke. Looking at the performance of software stocks during periods of geopolitical stress and market volatility over the last 10 and 25 years, his team found that software shares appear fairly well insulated when these broader shocks hit. RBC wrote:

“The defensive nature of SaaS models and the mission-critical nature of many core software systems at the enterprise level (e.g., in the absence of mass layoffs that may create seat-based headwinds, geopolitical uncertainty and/or market volatility typically will not cause an enterprise CIO to consider ripping out their ERP, CRM, Cyber systems, etc.”

I briefly got Jaluria on the phone yesterday, and he explained a bit more about why he thinks investors might see software as a decent place to hide out from the current chaos.

“With everything in the Middle East, you have to think about not just oil and gas input prices but also supply chains,” he said. “With software, you’re not really thinking about that.”

In other words, there is no equivalent of a closure of the Strait of Hormuz that software investors have to worry about.

Others suggested that the near-term profitability of these giant software companies — aside from concerns about potential long-term disruption from AI — may look different in the face of the economic uncertainty that seems to be growing with the war, especially after a sell-off that has left them relatively attractively valued.

Mark Moerdler, who covers software stocks for Bernstein Research, says that while the AI worries are clearly real, software companies continue to be highly productive cash cows.

“Everyone is afraid that AI is a massive disruptor, and all these articles you read talk about AI as massive disruptor or the world is ending or whatever,” he said. “You don’t see it in the fundamental numbers of the companies I cover. They are delivering GAAP profits, free cash flow, and they’re good investment ideas.”

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