The oil market, in can form (Getty Images)

These two charts show how the Iran war is causing markets to price in a longer oil supply crunch

The rise of third-month Brent futures relative to front-month this week is unprecedented since at least 1989.

For the oil market, aspirational rhetoric and coordinated action are telling one story, and the futures curve is telling quite another.

US-Israeli attacks against Iran, and the Gulf nation’s subsequent targeting of oil-producing nations in the region and attempts to deter the transport of oil through the Strait of Hormuz, have resulted in upheaval in global energy markets. Futures prices have pushed higher, closing above $100 per barrel for the first time since August 2022.

On Monday, US President Donald Trump said the war is “very complete, pretty much” and would be over “very soon.” That was later followed by member nations of the International Energy Agency agreeing to release 400 million barrels of oil from their reserves in a move to alleviate the supply crunch.

World powers other than Iran, and particularly US leadership, are trying to give the impression that this spike in energy prices won’t last long or be too severe.

Meanwhile, the story from the oil market this week has been the exact opposite: pricing in a longer stretch of higher prices.

Third-month Brent oil futures (for delivery in July, in this case) have jumped more than 10% this week. This would be just the 27th time that’s happened in the span of a week since February 1989. Usually, a big pop like that is associated with the outperformance of front-month futures because it’s a tied to a near-term supply shortage relative to demand. That’s what was going on the first week that markets were digesting this conflict, seemingly expecting a quick resolution.

Not so this time: this week is shaping up to be just one of seven in which third-month Brent futures rise 10% and outperform front-month futures, as of 9:20 a.m. ET. And for all those other instances, the outperformance of third-month futures was very modest. Again, not the case this time.

In other words, this looks to be (at least in my lifetime) the most aggressive repricing of not-so-short-term oil price risk. That’s an outcome that prediction markets are starting to coalesce around, as well. Event contracts suggest the implied probability is for the closing peak in front-month WTI futures by year-end to range from $135 to $140 in 2026. That’s meaningfully higher than the intraday peak of just shy of $120 seen on Sunday evening.

Tasha Matsumoto

18m

Stocks post third-straight week of losses as Brent crude surged above $100

Stocks wiped out early gains to close lower amid the ongoing war with Iran.

Matt Phillips4h

Memory stocks rebound off last weeks losses

Memory stocks Micron, Sandisk, Western Digital, and Seagate Technology Holdings rose again Friday, putting these crucial providers of chips for AI inference work on track for big weekly gains after last week’s steep losses following the outbreak of war with Iran.

There’s no obvious trigger for the move higher for these shares this week, other than a bit of a recovery in the AI trade more broadly — AI beneficiaries like IT cable and connections maker Amphenol and custom chip and networking company Marvell Technology clawed back some gains this week — perhaps due Oracle’s earnings earlier, and some mean reversion to boot.

Micron is due to report earnings after the close of trading on Wednesday, with the company catching a couple price target hikes this week, including one from Wedbush on Friday.

Sandisk is something of a different story, as its enormous gains over the last 12 months — roughly 1,200% — have made it a momentum play beloved by the retail crowd.

It was up about 20% this week at around 11 a.m. ET. And its nearly 170% gain this year keeps the stock on top of the S&P 500, in terms of price performance.

Luke Kawa

The S&P 500’s internals are awful... while it’s still less than 5% from its record closing high

The breadth of negative momentum within the index’s constituents is even worse than at the tariff-induced market bottom in April 2025.

Matt Phillips6h

Bitcoin bounce lifts crypto stocks

Crypto stocks rose in early Friday trading, riding a rebound in the price of bitcoin to more than $73,000.

Coinbase, Strategy, Circle, and MARA Holdings were among the biggest gainers of that cadre. Their end-of-the-week bounce might be getting a bit of extra oomph from the fact that companies have picked up a fair bit of interest from short sellers in 2026, as bitcoin fell about 15%.

Some of those shorts might be looking to quickly close out positions — which requires buying the stock — ahead of what could be another unpredictable weekend of war.

Max Knoblauch7h

Carvana announces plans for a 5-for-1 stock split, the company’s first

Online car retailer Carvana said on Friday that its board has approved a 5-for-1 stock split, a first for the company.

Carvana shares climbed more than 2% in premarket trading on Friday.

Per the company’s announcement, the move is “designed to ensure that earning and buying whole shares of Carvana stock is within reach for all of its team members.”

Pending stockholder approval, the split will occur after the market closes on May 6.

Carvana stock is down 31% this year following steep drops after its Q4 earnings results last month and a short seller report earlier in the year. Carvana told Sherwood News that the report was “inaccurate and intentionally misleading.”

Carvana Board of Directors Approves 5 for 1 Forward Stock Split