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Déjà VOO

The S&P 500 ETF wars are over — VOO has won out over SPY

After more than three decades at the top, SPY has lost its crown in the S&P 500 Index wars. Now, VOO’s closest challenger is IVV.

Hyunsoo Rim

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is seeing the largest annual withdrawal ever for an ETF, widening the gap even further with its now dominant rival, the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO).

According to the Financial Times, investors have pulled a record $32.7 billion from SPY so far this year, even as the S&P 500 it tracks has climbed 15% year to date.

That adds another blow to the State Street-run index fund, often synonymous with the ETF boom. Earlier this year, SPY lost its three-decade reign as the world’s largest ETF to Vanguard’s VOO — which now counts some $770 billion in assets — and soon after, it even slipped behind BlackRock’s IVV, which manages $702 billion.

VOO SPY
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At the heart of VOO’s rise is its cost advantage, charging just 0.03% in annual fees, less than a third of SPY’s 0.09%. The difference may seem trivial — roughly ~$6 a year on a $10,000 investment — but apparently, it’s a gap hard to ignore once those savings compound over the longer term.

Indeed, cost-conscious, buy-and-hold-forever retail investors are now powering the ETF market once driven by institutions and traders chasing SPY’s liquidity. Retail investors today account for three-quarters of US ETF assets, up from 56% in 2015, per data from Broadridge Global Market Intelligence.

And while VOO’s appeal lies in its simplicity, the broader ETF market is getting increasingly noisy and flashy: the US now has more ETFs than listed public companies, including a growing crop of niche products, active ETFs, and meme stock funds.

Another ETF that’s crushing it? BlackRock’s IBIT — which is making VOO’s early growth look glacial.

crypto

BlackRock’s bitcoin ETF is on the cusp of $100 billion in assets, a milestone it will have achieved in less than two years

While VOO might be the largest ETF in the world, IBIT — BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF — is the fastest-growing. And the bitcoin-centered product is on the cusp of a major milestone, reporting that it now holds 802,257 BTC, putting it within a whisker of hitting $100 billion in assets (worth roughly $99 billion in good old-fashioned USD at the time of writing).

Considering that BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust launched only 636 days ago, that’s a remarkable speedrun, as individual and institutional investors have embraced cryptocurrency via the exchange-traded fund. For context, VOO took over 2,900 days to hit the same milestone (about eight years).

VOO vs. IBIT spead to $100 billion assets under management
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As noted in a great piece by Robin Wigglesworth in the Financial Times, IBIT is now a major money-spinner for one of the biggest stalwarts of TradFi. As the largest exchange-traded product in the crypto space, and with a not insignificant expense ratio of 0.25%, the ETF is pulling in somewhere in the region of $250 million of revenue for its asset manager parent company. As Wigglesworth puts it:

“Anyway, it’s heartwarming to see that one of the companies profiting the most from an anarchical, decentralised invention supposedly designed to reorder the global financial system is... BlackRock.”

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SpaceX gets a wave of bullish ratings from Wall Street analysts

SpaceX received more than a dozen positive analyst calls on Tuesday — including from major Wall Street banks — as they initiate coverage on Elon Musk’s space and AI company.

SpaceX went public on June 12 at a $2.2 trillion valuation, the largest debut in history. While the company hasn’t yet posted a profit, it seems to have convinced Wall Street that it will get there and grow its valuation on the way.

Of the at least 17 analysts that gave a rating on Tuesday, all but one gave it a “buy” or “outperform” rating. MoffettNathanson was "neutral."

The ratings come as SpaceX joined the Nasdaq 100 index, a benchmark tech-heavy basket of companies that underpins millions of portfolios. The inclusion adds built-in demand for the stock from index funds and ETFs.

Still, SpaceX fell more than 5% on Tuesday amid a broader sell-off, and is currently effectively flat from its opening price of $150 a share.

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Nike sinks to lowest level since 2014 after warning of “challenged” sales environment in Q4 report

Did Nike do it?

Investors had a mixed reaction after the global sports apparel company reported its fourth quarter earnings on Tuesday after the bell. Shares initially rose 5% as Nike beat out Wall Street expectations amid a hefty tariff refund bonus. However, the stock then sank to its lowest level since August 2014 in postmarket trading.

Here are the Q4 numbers:

  • Revenue of $11.0 billion (estimate: $10.8 billion).

  • Adjusted earnings per share of $0.20 (estimate: $0.12).

Ahead of this report, Nike warned that results would be flattered by a one-time tariff refund (now estimated at roughly $0.52 per share for the bottom line). That gave the company an extra cushion in snapping its streak of seven quarters of year-over-year profit declines.

Over the past year, the company had been punished by tariffs on imported goods, stagnant consumer spending, and increasing competition from other footwear brands like New Balance, Adidas, and Hoka.

Outgoing CFO Matthew Friend deemed it an “increasingly challenging operating environment, where sell-through remains challenged.”

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