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Déjà VOO

The S&P 500 ETF wars are over — VOO has won out over SPY

After more than three decades at the top, SPY has lost its crown in the S&P 500 Index wars. Now, VOO’s closest challenger is IVV.

Hyunsoo Rim

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is seeing the largest annual withdrawal ever for an ETF, widening the gap even further with its now dominant rival, the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO).

According to the Financial Times, investors have pulled a record $32.7 billion from SPY so far this year, even as the S&P 500 it tracks has climbed 15% year to date.

That adds another blow to the State Street-run index fund, often synonymous with the ETF boom. Earlier this year, SPY lost its three-decade reign as the world’s largest ETF to Vanguard’s VOO — which now counts some $770 billion in assets — and soon after, it even slipped behind BlackRock’s IVV, which manages $702 billion.

VOO SPY
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At the heart of VOO’s rise is its cost advantage, charging just 0.03% in annual fees, less than a third of SPY’s 0.09%. The difference may seem trivial — roughly ~$6 a year on a $10,000 investment — but apparently, it’s a gap hard to ignore once those savings compound over the longer term.

Indeed, cost-conscious, buy-and-hold-forever retail investors are now powering the ETF market once driven by institutions and traders chasing SPY’s liquidity. Retail investors today account for three-quarters of US ETF assets, up from 56% in 2015, per data from Broadridge Global Market Intelligence.

And while VOO’s appeal lies in its simplicity, the broader ETF market is getting increasingly noisy and flashy: the US now has more ETFs than listed public companies, including a growing crop of niche products, active ETFs, and meme stock funds.

Another ETF that’s crushing it? BlackRock’s IBIT — which is making VOO’s early growth look glacial.

crypto

BlackRock’s bitcoin ETF is on the cusp of $100 billion in assets, a milestone it will have achieved in less than two years

While VOO might be the largest ETF in the world, IBIT — BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF — is the fastest-growing. And the bitcoin-centered product is on the cusp of a major milestone, reporting that it now holds 802,257 BTC, putting it within a whisker of hitting $100 billion in assets (worth roughly $99 billion in good old-fashioned USD at the time of writing).

Considering that BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust launched only 636 days ago, that’s a remarkable speedrun, as individual and institutional investors have embraced cryptocurrency via the exchange-traded fund. For context, VOO took over 2,900 days to hit the same milestone (about eight years).

VOO vs. IBIT spead to $100 billion assets under management
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As noted in a great piece by Robin Wigglesworth in the Financial Times, IBIT is now a major money-spinner for one of the biggest stalwarts of TradFi. As the largest exchange-traded product in the crypto space, and with a not insignificant expense ratio of 0.25%, the ETF is pulling in somewhere in the region of $250 million of revenue for its asset manager parent company. As Wigglesworth puts it:

“Anyway, it’s heartwarming to see that one of the companies profiting the most from an anarchical, decentralised invention supposedly designed to reorder the global financial system is... BlackRock.”

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Adobe rises on $25 billion stock buyback

Adobe was up as much as 3.5% in early trading on Wednesday after the company announced a share repurchase plan worth up to $25 billion, signaling to investors that company management sees retiring shares as a prudent use of capital at these levels. The stock has been down more than 60% since Feb 2024, largely on concerns that AI tools will disrupt the company’s business.

The new authorization, which Adobe detailed will extend through April 30, 2030, “is a direct expression of confidence in our robust cash flow and the long-term value we are delivering to investors,” said CFO Dan Durn in a press release.

Indeed, fears that new agentic models could affect demand compounded when Anthropic unveiled Claude Design last week, sending the company’s shares down on the announcement. Adobe released a series of AI-enabled customer service functions shortly after. Rival Figma, which Adobe was set to acquire before the deal was blocked by regulators, has also been under pressure.

Adobe is also not the only spooked software company proposing new buyback plans to bring investors back, joining Salesforce, which actually issued debt to buy back shares in a programme of the same size ($25 billion).

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United beats Q1 earnings and revenue estimates, lowers full-year profit guidance amid surging jet fuel prices

United Airlines reported its first-quarter earnings results after the bell on Tuesday. The carrier’s shares ticked down in after-hours trading.

For Q1, United reported:

  • Adjusted earnings of $1.19 per share, compared to the Wall Street estimate of $1.08 per share compiled by FactSet.

  • $14.6 billion in revenue, compared to the $14.39 billion consensus estimate.

In the first quarter, United’s fuel expense grew 12.6% from the same period last year to $3.04 billion.

For the second quarter, United expects adjusted earnings per share of between $1 and $2, shy of Wall Street expectations of $2.08. For the full year ahead, United said it expects earnings between $7 and $11 per share, compared to its prior guidance of between $12 and $14 per share.

“Guidance assumes United’s revenue recovers 40% to 50% of the fuel price increases in the second quarter, 70% to 80% of the fuel price increases in the third quarter and 85% to 100% of the fuel price increases in the fourth quarter 2026,” read the company’s investor update.

Earlier this month, United was among the first major US airlines to hike its bag fees amid higher fuel costs. Its shares have fallen more than 15% from a February high days before the war in Iran began.

United has also made waves this month following reports that CEO Scott Kirby had floated the idea of a merger with American Airlines to President Trump. A merger between two of the big four airlines would create a true US behemoth, controlling more than a third of the American market. American Air last week said it wasn’t interested in merging with United and hadn’t held talks on the idea. On Tuesday, Trump told CNBC that he doesn’t like the idea either.

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Hedge funds are following retail traders into the Magnificent 7

Hedge funds are following retail traders into the stocks the masses never stopped buying.

“As we kick off earnings for megacap tech stocks, this stood out: [hedge funds] have started buying Mag7 stocks again this month though positioning remains well below the peak levels seen in early 2016,” wrote Goldman Sachs’ Cullen Morgan.

Goldman PB Mag 7
Source: Goldman Sachs

In early April, JPMorgan strategist Arun Jain noted that retail investors had basically been selling everything but the Magnificent 7 stocks as part of a more cautious stance due to the Iran war.

(Apple has been a long-standing exception to this trend, presumably because retail traders arent fond of its hands-off approach to AI.)

JPM Retail flows

Last August, Jain discussed how retail activity tended to “crowd in” institutional buyers in meme stocks, while Goldman’s John Marshall advised clients to piggyback on stocks beloved by retail traders. Speculative, retail-geared assets proceeded to go on a tremendous run that soured in October.

But there are some early indications that a similar bout of speculative fervor is bubbling up once more.

markets

POET Technologies surges above $10 for first time in 4 years amid explosion in call volumes

POET Technologies is up nearly 40% this week as options market activity goes haywire in a faint echo of what got the stock on retail traders’ radars in October.

As of 11:12 a.m. ET, more than 10 calls have changed hands for every put traded. This bullish impulse has propelled the stock above the $10 threshold for the first time since March 2022.

Shares of the optical communications firm briefly dipped last week after Wolfpack Research said it was short the company because its investors would be exposed to an “IRS tax nightmare.”

The company responded that day saying it was taking measures for US shareholders that “should mitigate certain potential adverse US federal income tax consequences to it that could otherwise result from the Company’s status as a passive foreign investment company.”

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