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(“SpongeBob SquarePants”)

The company with the world’s most enviable stock ticker isn’t cashing in on AI

When your ticker is “AI,” people expect you to be riding the wave better than anyone else — but that hasn’t happened for C3.ai.

Executives in Corporate America are bending over backward to describe their products as “AI-powered or AI-driven,” desperate to join the hype train. Weirdly, the stock with the enviable “AI” ticker is going the opposite way.

C3.ai, a 16-year-old enterprise software firm that develops AI tools for businesses and government use, has fallen 34% in the past month — hit first by a weak preliminary forecast in August, followed by actual quarterly results on Wednesday, which founder Tom Siebel described as “completely unacceptable.

For the quarter ended July 31, revenue fell 19% year over year to $70.3 million, missing forecasts by a mile; Wall Street was expecting somewhere north of $100 million, per Bloomberg. Losses, unsurprisingly, ballooned as well, with a net loss of nearly $117 million.

Indeed, since its 2020 IPO, the company has remained in the red, with losses continuing to widen.

C3.ai has rebranded several times since its founding in 2009: first as C3, focusing on carbon emissions tracking, then as C3 IoT in 2016 during the Internet of Things boom, and finally as C3.ai in 2019, pivoting to artificial intelligence. Shares popped after its IPO, but are now down ~90% from its peak, seriously missing the AI rally that’s defined the last two years.

Siebel blamed the weak quarter on the company’s disruptive sales overhaul, while also citing his own health issues. This week, the company appointed Stephen Ehikian as CEO, with Siebel staying on as executive chairman. Despite the miss, Siebel emphasized that C3.ai has an “extraordinarily large market opportunity, a superlative product offering, and exceptional levels of customer satisfaction.”

Still, analysts remain skeptical. Oppenheimer’s Timothy Horan warned the guidance may need to be reset lower, while Wedbush Securities’ Dan Ives called the last quarter “brutal” and cautioned of “darker days” if performance doesn’t improve. 

Of course, AI isn’t a magic word that turns hype into profit. Though the frenzy around the tech has produced big winners, with Nvidia surpassing $4 trillion in market cap and Palantir transforming into a corporate behemoth thanks to a strong retail following, other names like Marvell, Adobe, and Salesforce are facing setbacks as their AI push has yet to meaningfully boost their bottom lines.

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Moderna drops after reporting trial for birth defect vaccine failed

Moderna dropped in after-hours trading Wednesday after it reported that its experimental vaccine for cytomegalovirus (CMV), which can cause birth defects, failed in a late-stage trial.

The company is perhaps best known for being tapped by the government to quickly develop a vaccine for COVID-19 in 2020, which remains its single source of revenue. Investors have been eager for signs that it will add more vaccines to its portfolio soon.

The CMV vaccine was the main product in Modernas pipeline prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. In the most recent results, the vaccine was only between 6% and 23% effective in blocking infection, which was “well below” the company’s target of at least 49%, the company said in a statement.

In statements announcing the results, Modernas leaders described the results at “disappointing.” The company fell more than 5% after-hours and is down more than 35% this year.

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Carvana plunges as investors respond to another subprime lender’s bankruptcy filing

Used car retailer Carvana is plunging on Wednesday, with the stock on pace for its worst day since auto tariffs took effect in April.

Likely spooking investors is a fresh bankruptcy filing by PrimaLend, which specializes in financing for dealerships focused on subprime borrowers (customers with lower credit scores, typically below 600, as defined by Experian). The news follows last month’s bankruptcy filing by another subprime auto lender, Tricolor Holdings.

Carvana doesn’t appear to work directly with PrimaLend, but it does likely have significant exposure to subprime loans. According to a January report by Hindenburg Research, which was shorting Carvana, 44% of the loans Carvana packages into asset-backed securities (ABS) are classified as nonprime (601-660 credit scores). More than 80% of its recent nonprime ABS deals had average FICO scores in the “deep subprime” range, or the riskiest levels, according to the report. Carvana at the time called the report “intentionally misleading and inaccurate.”

Carvana has massive growth goals, saying earlier this year that it aims to sell 3 million retail units per year within 5 to 10 years. (Wall Street expects it to sell about 580,000 units this year.) Lower-income buyers could be a significant part of that growth.

Following Tricolor’s implosion last month, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said: “When you see one cockroach, there are probably more. Everyone should be forewarned on this one.” With investors pouring out of Carvana on Tuesday, it seems Wall Street isn’t taking that warning lightly.

There is likely also some momentum pullback baked into Carvana’s drop: the stock, which has been a favorite among retail traders, is still up 58% this year, even after Wednesday’s drop.

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