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Texas Instruments slumps on disappointing Q4 revenue and profit outlook

Texas Instruments is down a little over 8% in premarket trading as investors react to the weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter guidance the company gave in its Q3 earnings yesterday.

The world’s biggest analog chipmaker said that Q4 revenue would come in between $4.22 billion and $4.58 billion, where analysts had expected $4.5 billion on average, per Bloomberg. TI’s profit forecast for the period also disappointed, after the company said that earnings would be in the region of $1.13 to $1.39 per share, compared to reported Wall Street estimates of $1.41.

While its actual third-quarter numbers were broadly solid all told, with adjusted EPS at $1.59 meeting expectations, the Q4 outlook is a clear signal to some that recovery will likely be a little more sluggish than they expected. As the company’s CEO, Haviv Ilan, put it on an analyst call:

The overall semiconductor market recovery is continuing, though at a slower pace than prior upturns, likely related to the broader macroeconomic dynamics and overall uncertainty.

Texas Instruments counts more customers than anyone else in the semiconductor business and has a broader range of products, too, making it something of a bellwether for the industry more broadly, with its softer outlook weighing modestly on stocks like Analog Devices, AMD, and Intel.

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US gas prices surge, with prediction markets implying >$4 per gallon by the end of March

Pain at the pump is intensifying as the ongoing war in the Middle East pressures supplies.

US average national gas prices rose to $3.45 per gallon on Sunday, according to data from the American Automobile Association, and are up more than 15% since the kinetic conflict started.

“Given Sunday evening’s data and the continued surge in oil prices, I believe there is roughly an 80% chance the national average price of gasoline reaches $4 per gallon within the next month- or sooner,” wrote Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, in a post on Substack on Sunday evening. “In the immediate term, the national average of $3.45 per gallon could climb to roughly $3.75–$3.95 this week alone.”

Prediction markets currently expect prices to end the month around $4.30 to $4.50. On Friday, the prediction market-implied likely range for prices was between $3.60 and $3.70.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

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Report: Boeing could unveil 500-jet order from China during Trump’s visit later this month

Shares of Boeing are up nearly 4% on Friday afternoon, following a Bloomberg report that the company could be close to finalizing a deal to sell 500 planes to China.

The deal was first reported in August and would be one of Boeing’s largest ever.

According to Bloomberg’s sources, the deal could be officially unveiled when President Trump travels to China at the end of the month. That trip could be delayed given the war in Iran. The deal, sources say, could still fall apart — similar language to when it was first reported on more than six months ago.

Boeing has been on the outside of the Chinese market, in terms of new orders, since 2019 amid escalating US-China trade tensions.

According to Bloomberg’s sources, the deal could be officially unveiled when President Trump travels to China at the end of the month. That trip could be delayed given the war in Iran. The deal, sources say, could still fall apart — similar language to when it was first reported on more than six months ago.

Boeing has been on the outside of the Chinese market, in terms of new orders, since 2019 amid escalating US-China trade tensions.

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