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Yiwen Lu11/5/24

Super Micro tumbles on lower guidance, further delay in filing

The embattled semiconductor company Super Micro Computer cut guidance for its first-quarter earnings and said that it “remains unable at this time to predict” when it will be able to file its annual report. Shares of Super Micro fell over 13% in after-hours trading.

In a press release, Super Micro announced preliminary results for the first quarter of 2025. The company expected net sales for the quarter to be $5.9 billion to $6 billion, down from a previous guidance of $6 billion to $7 billion. Analysts were expecting an average of $6.4 billion, according to FactSet.

The company also lowered the upper end of expected earnings per share. It is now expecting non-GAAP earnings per share to be between $0.75 to $0.76, instead of previous guidance of $0.67 to $0.83. Wall Street expected $0.73.

Super Micro “continues to work diligently on matters related to the Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended June 30, 2024,” the company said. The annual filing was due on August 29, 2024 but Super Micro said it was not able to file the report on time. This followed a short-seller’s report alleging accounting irregularities, questionable governance, and sanctions evasion at Super Micro. Just last month, auditor Ernst & Young resigned, dragging shares down as much as 30%.

However, Super Micro said in the release that an independent committee of its board of directors had completed an investigation based on EY’s concerns, which revealed “no evidence of fraud or misconduct.”

In a call with investors, Super Micro CEO Charles Liang said he was confident the challenges would not affect the company’s ability to serve its customers.

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Matt Phillips19m

Rocket Lab slips with other momentum stocks despite DOD hypersonic test deal, new analyst “buy” call

Rocket Lab slipped early Thursday along with other momentum stocks, despite announcing a new $190 million deal for 20 tests of hypersonic rockets for the Department of Defense and picking up a new bullish analyst call.

The commercial space launch company called the deal to launch 20 hypersonic test flights over a four-year period in collaboration with Kratos Defense its “single largest launch agreement yet.”

Separately, analysts at brokerage firm Clear Street initiated coverage of Rocket Lab with a “buy” rating and an $88 price target — essentially the same as Wall Street’s $88.38 consensus, according to FactSet. That implies upside of about 27% for the stock compared to yesterday’s close. Clear Street analysts wrote:

“Despite shares rising 289% (vs. 26% for the NASDAQ) over the past year, we see further upside. Our $88 target is based on 20x 2030E EV/Sales, in line with the ~30x NTM EV/Revenue average over the past year when discounted to present value. We anchor on 2030E to capture the payoff from ~16 annual Neutron launches following a multi-year investment cycle. Our outlook incorporates estimated dilution and proceeds from the $1B equity distribution agreement announced on 3/17/2026.”

The favorable headlines for Rocket Lab weren’t enough to help the shares overcome a general downdraft for high-beta momentum stocks such as itself. They are getting hammered early on the deteriorating situation in the Mideast war.

Rocket Lab wins $190 million Pentagon deal for hypersonic test flights

Rocket Lab wins $190 million Pentagon deal for hypersonic test flights

Separately, analysts at brokerage firm Clear Street initiated coverage of Rocket Lab with a “buy” rating and an $88 price target — essentially the same as Wall Street’s $88.38 consensus, according to FactSet. That implies upside of about 27% for the stock compared to yesterday’s close. Clear Street analysts wrote:

“Despite shares rising 289% (vs. 26% for the NASDAQ) over the past year, we see further upside. Our $88 target is based on 20x 2030E EV/Sales, in line with the ~30x NTM EV/Revenue average over the past year when discounted to present value. We anchor on 2030E to capture the payoff from ~16 annual Neutron launches following a multi-year investment cycle. Our outlook incorporates estimated dilution and proceeds from the $1B equity distribution agreement announced on 3/17/2026.”

The favorable headlines for Rocket Lab weren’t enough to help the shares overcome a general downdraft for high-beta momentum stocks such as itself. They are getting hammered early on the deteriorating situation in the Mideast war.

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Max Knoblauch2h

Uber will invest $1.25 billion in Rivian in a new robotaxi deal

EV maker Rivian surged more than 9% in premarket trading on Thursday following an announcement that Uber will invest up to $1.25 billion in the company through 2031 as part of a robotaxi partnership.

The deal will begin with an initial $300 million investment, and Uber will purchase 10,000 autonomous versions of the R2. Uber will have the option to buy 40,000 more in 2030.

The R2 is Rivian’s smaller, less expensive model and is set to roll out to buyers in the second quarter of this year.

Per a company filing on Thursday, Rivian “no longer expects to be adjusted EBITDA positive in 2027 due to an expected increase in R&D spend associated with the acceleration of its autonomy roadmap.”

Uber, which has more than 20 autuonomous vehicle partnerships ranging from Alphabet’s Waymo to Baidu, has become a dominant robotaxi force.

Rivian had first hinted at robotaxi plans at its Autonomy and AI Day in December.

Uber to invest up to $1.25 billion in EV maker Rivian in deal to launch 50,000 robotaxis

Uber to invest up to $1.25 billion in EV maker Rivian in deal to launch 50,000 robotaxis

The R2 is Rivian’s smaller, less expensive model and is set to roll out to buyers in the second quarter of this year.

Per a company filing on Thursday, Rivian “no longer expects to be adjusted EBITDA positive in 2027 due to an expected increase in R&D spend associated with the acceleration of its autonomy roadmap.”

Uber, which has more than 20 autuonomous vehicle partnerships ranging from Alphabet’s Waymo to Baidu, has become a dominant robotaxi force.

Rivian had first hinted at robotaxi plans at its Autonomy and AI Day in December.

Hyunsoo Rim, David Crowther

Oil and gas prices jump, stocks slide, after Middle East strikes hit key energy infrastructure

Attacks on Iranian and Qatari energy facilities pushed Brent to $118, as Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth offered no deadline on an end to the war in a press conference.

Flare stack air pollution

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J. Edward Moreno3h

Lilly reports encouraging trial results for its next-gen GLP-1 shot

Eli Lilly released late-stage trial results for its next-generation GLP-1 shot, retatrutide, showing the drug helped patients lose more weight than anything currently on the market.

Patients taking the highest dose of retatrutide, 12 milligrams, lost 16.8% of their body weight after 40 weeks, more than its current bestseller, tirzepatide. The results also showed significant reduction in blood sugar levels.

The stock was flat in premarket trading following the news.

Lilly’s tirzepatide, sold under the brand names Zepbound and Mounjaro, is currently the most sold drug in the world. The company’s sales have now outpaced its top rival, Novo Nordisk, which was the first to bring a GLP-1 to market but has seen sales decelerate as competitors have muscled in.

Still, some expect Lilly’s winning streak may not last forever. Analysts at HSBC gave the stock a rare downgrade earlier this week, citing a crowded market, among other factors.

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Gold and silver dip amid inflation concerns and ongoing Iran war

Often seen as safe havens through times of uncertainty, precious metals aren’t acting that way today, as oil prices spike amid escalations in the Iran war, compounding inflationary concerns and sending the SPDR Gold Shares ETF and iShares Silver Trust down 3.4% and 6.6%, respectively, as of 6:55 a.m. ET.

Though the Fed kept rates steady yesterday, as was universally expected, officials raised their forecasts for inflation — a move that seems to have spooked investors, who had already been taking risk off the table in recent weeks. With Brent crude north of $114 per barrel this morning, investors look to be bracing for further inflationary shock and are dumping gold and silver, as implied odds of a Fed rate cut in June plummeted on prediction markets from 60% on February 23 to just 16% this morning.

The shiny metal slump is already weighing on mining stocks like Anglogold Ashanti, Newmont, Wheaton Precious Metals, and Agnico Eagle, which are all plunging in premarket trading.

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