markets

5/7/25

Stocks tumble after Federal Reserve warns of heightened stagflationary risks

The Federal Reserve has no clue what in the world awaits the US economy, so it kept rates unchanged at a range of 4.25% to 4.5%.

“Uncertainty about the economic outlook has increased further,” the statement that accompanied the decision said. “The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate and judges that the risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen.”

Stocks initially oscillated in the minutes following the statement, but then the SPDR S&P 500 ETF fell out of bed, turning negative and hitting fresh daily lows.

Economists anticipated that the US central bank would be holding the course at this meeting.

Ahead of this release, traders had been pricing in about a 27% chance of a cut at the central bank’s next meeting in mid-June and giving odds of 62% to a cut on July 30. These probabilities were little changed in the minutes following the release.

“The Fed believes that the US economy is expanding at a solid pace and that labor market conditions are solid even though labor demand continues to cool, hiring rates are low, and average hourly earnings have slowed,” Neil Dutta, head of US economics at Renaissance Macro Research, wrote. “Here is the thing. Labor market conditions have already cooled. What makes the Fed assume this stabilizes on its own? It can’t and won’t, which means a policy response will ultimately be required. Proceed accordingly.”

We’ll be closely watching the press conference to learn how the Federal Reserve is grappling with this conundrum of risks to its inflation and labor market objectives.

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Nia Warfield, Luke Kawa

S&P 500 goes nowhere, Nasdaq 100 hits another record, small-caps tumble

Warner Bros. Discovery led gains for the second day in a row, and only three S&P 500 sector ETFs finished in the green.

Horse Ranch In Zhangye

markets

9/12/25

Rocket lab soars to new record close amid rally for retail faves

Rocket Lab ripped by roughly 10% Friday to close at a new all-time high, riding an upturn of retail enthusiasm for a coterie of tech-themed favorites, even as the broader market was more or less flat on the day.

Goldman Sachs’ basket of “retail favorites” — its heaviest weights are Reddit, AppLovin, and Tempus AI — was the second-biggest gainer among the company’s flagship US equity baskets on Friday, rising about 1.6%. The S&P was almost dead flat.

It’s not Rocket Lab’s first retail rodeo, as the money-losing company has more than doubled this year and is up nearly 700% over the last 12 months.

Oracle Wall Street Revisions

Analysts revise up anything and everything they thought about Oracle

After the company’s bombshell earnings this week, Wall Street thinks Oracle’s trajectory has changed.

Matt Phillips9/12/25

markets

9/12/25

Six Flags pops after reiterating its guidance as theme park attendance rebounds

Six Flags shares rose more than 7% today after the company reported a rebound in attendance and early season pass sales heading into the fall. The nine-week period ended August 31 saw 17.8 million guests, up about 2% from the same stretch last year, with stronger momentum in the final four weeks.

More importantly, Six Flags reaffirmed its full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance of $860 million to $910 million, showing confidence that its cost and operations strategy can stay strong for the duration of the year. Riding that wave, Six Flags also said early 2026 season pass unit sales are pacing ahead of last year, and average season pass prices are up about 3%.

The good vibes come despite a drop in in-park per-capita spending, especially from admissions, where promotions and changes to attendance mix (which parks or days guests visit) have weighed. Earlier this week, the amusement giant signed a new agreement that extended its position as the exclusive amusement park partner for Peanuts™ in North America through 2030.

Despite the rally, Six Flags shares are down about 52% year to date.

markets

9/12/25

Rivian turns red on the year, squeezed by a recall and the looming end of the EV tax credit

Shares of EV maker Rivian are down more than 5% on Friday following the company’s recall of 24,214 vehicles due to a software issue. The stock move erases Rivian’s year-to-date gain and turns the company negative on the year.

Rivian’s 2025 model year R1S and R1T are affected by the defect, which was identified after a vehicle’s hands-free highway assist software failed to identify another vehicle on the road, causing a low-speed collision. Rivian said it’s released an over-the-air update to fix the issue.

The recall marks Rivian’s fifth this year, affecting nearly 70,000 of its vehicles.

Rivian’s shares are down more than 20% from their 2025 high, which came prior to the passage of President Trump’s “big, beautiful bill.” Through the legislation, the $7,500 EV tax credit is set to expire at the end of the month.

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