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Stocks pull back as megacap tech slumps

Stocks fell on Tuesday as the market’s tech titans took a breather after a hot run. The S&P 500 fell 0.6%, the Nasdaq 100 lagged with a 0.7% decline, and the Russell 2000 outperformed, albeit with a 0.2% drop.

The Magnificent 7 had their worst day in over a month, down 1.5%, with every constituent falling.

Consumer discretionary and tech were the two worst-performing S&P sector ETFs, while energy fared the best.

Bright spots on the day were Halliburton and Paramount Skydance, which rose 7.5% and about 6%, respectively. Generac and Vistra were among the biggest decliners, falling more than 10% and 6%, respectively. Elsewhere…

Nvidia fell 2.8% even as Wedbush Securities analysts called its recent $100 billion deal with OpenAI a “watershed moment” for the AI revolution. Separately, Bank of America analysts said the chip designer is poised to generate hundreds of billions in free cash flow.

Shares of Opendoor sank more than 15% after its third-biggest shareholder, Access Industries, sold 11.36 million shares of the online real estate company through its AI LiquidRE arm.

Firefly Aerospace also dove more than 15% after the Texas-based space launch startup missed Wall Street’s estimates for the company’s first quarterly report since its August IPO.

Plug Power had a wild ride, up double digits in premarket trading before ending down 4.6%, snapping a nine-day winning streak that was close to becoming the longest on record for the hydrogen fuel cell company.

Boeing ticked up another 2% after announcing on Monday that Uzbekistan Airways will order up to 22 of its 787 Dreamliner jets.

Satellite stocks like AST SpaceMobile, Planet Labs, and Rocket Lab climbed on elevated activity, especially in the options market.

IonQ jumped more than 4% after the company announced “a significant technological advancement in its pursuit of scalable quantum networks.”

Shares of Sinclair Inc. rose more than 3% after the self-proclaimed “largest ABC affiliate group” said it will continue to keep “Jimmy Kimmel Live!” off its ABC stations.

Palantir rose 1.8% after Bank of America analysts hiked their price target on the stock to $215 — the highest among the published price targets tracked by FactSet.

Kenvue, the company behind Tylenol, gained 1.6% as doctors pushed back against President Trump’s claims about a link between the drug and autism, per Reuters.

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Report: Boeing could unveil 500-jet order from China during Trump’s visit later this month

Shares of Boeing are up nearly 4% on Friday afternoon, following a Bloomberg report that the company could be close to finalizing a deal to sell 500 planes to China.

The deal was first reported in August and would be one of Boeing’s largest ever.

According to Bloomberg’s sources, the deal could be officially unveiled when President Trump travels to China at the end of the month. That trip could be delayed given the war in Iran. The deal, sources say, could still fall apart — similar language to when it was first reported on more than six months ago.

Boeing has been on the outside of the Chinese market, in terms of new orders, since 2019 amid escalating US-China trade tensions.

According to Bloomberg’s sources, the deal could be officially unveiled when President Trump travels to China at the end of the month. That trip could be delayed given the war in Iran. The deal, sources say, could still fall apart — similar language to when it was first reported on more than six months ago.

Boeing has been on the outside of the Chinese market, in terms of new orders, since 2019 amid escalating US-China trade tensions.

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Why software shares are withstanding the war jitters

The outbreak of the war in Iran has clearly rattled investors and created a few clear winners — mostly energy stocks — and losers — consumer staples, airlines, and, well, more or else everything else.

But there is one interesting outlier to that Manichaean market dynamic.

Software shares — often the same companies that the market was giving up for dead just a few weeks ago due to overexpectations of an AI-driven disruption — have been holding up remarkably well.

These companies, including Intuit, ServiceNow, Datadog, Snowflake, IBM, Workday, and Oracle, have actually had a pretty decent run since the war started with a combined US-Israeli attack on Iran last weekend.

A new note from RBC Capital’s Rishi Jaluria suggests this isn’t just a fluke. Looking at the performance of software stocks during periods of geopolitical stress and market volatility over the last 10 and 25 years, his team found that software shares appear fairly well insulated when these broader shocks hit. RBC wrote:

“The defensive nature of SaaS models and the mission-critical nature of many core software systems at the enterprise level (e.g., in the absence of mass layoffs that may create seat-based headwinds, geopolitical uncertainty and/or market volatility typically will not cause an enterprise CIO to consider ripping out their ERP, CRM, Cyber systems, etc.”

I briefly got Jaluria on the phone yesterday, and he explained a bit more about why he thinks investors might see software as a decent place to hide out from the current chaos.

“With everything in the Middle East, you have to think about not just oil and gas input prices but also supply chains,” he said. “With software, you’re not really thinking about that.”

In other words, there is no equivalent of a closure of the Strait of Hormuz that software investors have to worry about.

Others suggested that the near-term profitability of these giant software companies — aside from concerns about potential long-term disruption from AI — may look different in the face of the economic uncertainty that seems to be growing with the war, especially after a sell-off that has left them relatively attractively valued.

Mark Moerdler, who covers software stocks for Bernstein Research, says that while the AI worries are clearly real, software companies continue to be highly productive cash cows.

“Everyone is afraid that AI is a massive disruptor, and all these articles you read talk about AI as massive disruptor or the world is ending or whatever,” he said. “You don’t see it in the fundamental numbers of the companies I cover. They are delivering GAAP profits, free cash flow, and they’re good investment ideas.”

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