markets

5/12/25

Stocks are pricing in the sweet relief of an earnings recovery

One way to characterize the big rally in US markets on Monday is that traders are pricing in better fundamentals for the stocks that were facing intensifying operational challenges — no matter if those issues were tariff-induced or not.

Of the 36 stocks that have seen 12-month forward earnings-per-share estimates fall by at least 10% since the March 31 peak in projected profits for the S&P 500, 70% are outperforming the index’s 2.6% advance on Monday as of 11:25 a.m. ET.

Some of these stocks were facing direct challenges from tariffs, like trucking company PACCAR and General Motors. Others, like Tesla, were mainly caught up in idiosyncratic issues of their own making. And, of course, energy stocks battered by the downdraft in prices are cheering the sharp rise in oil prices today that’s part of the risk-on move.

The common theme seems to be that a world with fewer tariffs than feared is going to mitigate worst-case scenarios for profitability across the board.

Earnings revision momentum turned sharply negative in April, reaching the worst levels since the 2020 pandemic, with the lion’s share of the decline in S&P 500 forward earnings attributable to consumer discretionary (tariffs) and energy (an OPEC-induced positive supply shock).

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Nia Warfield, Luke Kawa

S&P 500 goes nowhere, Nasdaq 100 hits another record, small-caps tumble

Warner Bros. Discovery led gains for the second day in a row, and only three S&P 500 sector ETFs finished in the green.

Horse Ranch In Zhangye

markets

23h

Rocket lab soars to new record close amid rally for retail faves

Rocket Lab ripped by roughly 10% Friday to close at a new all-time high, riding an upturn of retail enthusiasm for a coterie of tech-themed favorites, even as the broader market was more or less flat on the day.

Goldman Sachs’ basket of “retail favorites” — its heaviest weights are Reddit, AppLovin, and Tempus AI — was the second-biggest gainer among the company’s flagship US equity baskets on Friday, rising about 1.6%. The S&P was almost dead flat.

It’s not Rocket Lab’s first retail rodeo, as the money-losing company has more than doubled this year and is up nearly 700% over the last 12 months.

Oracle Wall Street Revisions

Analysts revise up anything and everything they thought about Oracle

After the company’s bombshell earnings this week, Wall Street thinks Oracle’s trajectory has changed.

Matt Phillips9/12/25

markets

9/12/25

Six Flags pops after reiterating its guidance as theme park attendance rebounds

Six Flags shares rose more than 7% today after the company reported a rebound in attendance and early season pass sales heading into the fall. The nine-week period ended August 31 saw 17.8 million guests, up about 2% from the same stretch last year, with stronger momentum in the final four weeks.

More importantly, Six Flags reaffirmed its full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance of $860 million to $910 million, showing confidence that its cost and operations strategy can stay strong for the duration of the year. Riding that wave, Six Flags also said early 2026 season pass unit sales are pacing ahead of last year, and average season pass prices are up about 3%.

The good vibes come despite a drop in in-park per-capita spending, especially from admissions, where promotions and changes to attendance mix (which parks or days guests visit) have weighed. Earlier this week, the amusement giant signed a new agreement that extended its position as the exclusive amusement park partner for Peanuts™ in North America through 2030.

Despite the rally, Six Flags shares are down about 52% year to date.

markets

9/12/25

Rivian turns red on the year, squeezed by a recall and the looming end of the EV tax credit

Shares of EV maker Rivian are down more than 5% on Friday following the company’s recall of 24,214 vehicles due to a software issue. The stock move erases Rivian’s year-to-date gain and turns the company negative on the year.

Rivian’s 2025 model year R1S and R1T are affected by the defect, which was identified after a vehicle’s hands-free highway assist software failed to identify another vehicle on the road, causing a low-speed collision. Rivian said it’s released an over-the-air update to fix the issue.

The recall marks Rivian’s fifth this year, affecting nearly 70,000 of its vehicles.

Rivian’s shares are down more than 20% from their 2025 high, which came prior to the passage of President Trump’s “big, beautiful bill.” Through the legislation, the $7,500 EV tax credit is set to expire at the end of the month.

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