Yiwen Lu10/24/24

S&P 500 snaps losing streak as Tesla goes parabolic

The S&P 500 climbed 0.2%, the first time it rose this week. The Nasdaq 100 outperformed and gained 0.8%, while the Russell 2000 was up 0.2%.

Tesla’s 21.9% day led Magnificent 7 stocks and pushed the S&P consumer-discretionary sector ETF higher by 3.2%. It was the stock’s third-best daily gain on record.

Among other sectors, materials select fell 1.2% and was dragged down by earnings miss at Newmont Corp . Shares slid 14.7% and the stock became the biggest S&P 500 laggard of the day.

The market did not have a strong reaction to any of Thursday’s economic data. New-home sales crept higher, likely due to lower mortgage rates during September. Initial jobless claims filed last week fell.

Treasury yields fell modestly for the first time this week. Oil futures settled lower. The dollar weakened.

More on single names: UPS surged 5.3% on the day after the company returned to profit for the first time since the end of 2022. An economic barometer, the shipping company’s solid performance may be a testament to consumer resilience. Molina Healthcare was the second-best-performing S&P constituent on the day, rising 17.7%. Whirlpool Corp. climbed 11.2%, and executives expected demand to pick up after the election.

Conversely, Southwest Airlines slid 5.6% after the airline said it reached a deal with activist investor Elliott Investment Management to keep its CEO. IBM dropped 6.2%, as sales figures failed to impress Wall Street.

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Stocks sank after a hotter-than-expected producer price index reading as well as a higher inflation forecast from the Fed amid rising energy prices.

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Constellation, Talen, and NRG surge as BNP analysts see “golden (AI)ge” ahead for them

Power producers Talen Energy, Constellation Energy, and NRG jumped Wednesday, benefiting in part from a rosy write-up by analysts at BNP Paribas, who launched coverage of all three at “outperform” and argued that the AI energy trade — a big AI-related winner in recent years that has lagged a bit recently — is due for a second wind.

That view was in a broad note on the independent power producer segment of utilities industry that the analysts published Wednesday, titled “The Golden (AI)ge of IPPs.”

Here’s the gist of it:

US independent power producers (IPPs) have lagged the AI basket for 6+ months, after garnering much attention in 2023-1H25. Investors are caught up in the minutia of perceived headwinds: underwhelming pace of power purchase agreement deals, distributed behind-the-meter solutions stealing the ‘time-to-power’ edge, pressure for data centers to bring generation and not tighten the grid, etc.

And yet, as we demonstrate, despite all this noise, the wave of rising load is at the cusp of an acceleration that will nonetheless overwhelm new supply—well into the 2030s, in our view. Hop on or risk missing the resurgent AI trade this decade.

BNP’s price targets for the stocks — Constellation ($407), NRG ($232) and Talen ($549) — implied gains of 32%, 50%, and 68% respectively. (Though today’s gains would reduce those potential upside targets somewhat for new buyers.)

US independent power producers (IPPs) have lagged the AI basket for 6+ months, after garnering much attention in 2023-1H25. Investors are caught up in the minutia of perceived headwinds: underwhelming pace of power purchase agreement deals, distributed behind-the-meter solutions stealing the ‘time-to-power’ edge, pressure for data centers to bring generation and not tighten the grid, etc.

And yet, as we demonstrate, despite all this noise, the wave of rising load is at the cusp of an acceleration that will nonetheless overwhelm new supply—well into the 2030s, in our view. Hop on or risk missing the resurgent AI trade this decade.

BNP’s price targets for the stocks — Constellation ($407), NRG ($232) and Talen ($549) — implied gains of 32%, 50%, and 68% respectively. (Though today’s gains would reduce those potential upside targets somewhat for new buyers.)

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