Yiwen Lu9/30/24

US stocks finish September higher

The S&P 500 ended up 0.4%, another record closing high. The Nasdaq 100 advanced 0.3%, while the Russell 2000 gained 0.2%. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 ended the month up more than 2% and scored a winning quarter, too.

The stock rally during the last minutes of trading recouped earlier losses in the session. Major indices dipped in early afternoon amid Jerome Powell’s address at the National Association for Business Economics, where the Federal Reserve Chair said that the central bank was unlikely to keep cutting rates aggressively, as it did with a 50 basis point cut two weeks ago, unless the economy underperforms their expectations.

US bonds slid. Yields on the policy-sensitive two-year Treasury note ticked higher by nearly 8 basis points. 10-year treasury yields also moved up.

Most S&P sector ETFs advanced as well. Materials was down the most by 0.6%, while real estate, the biggest gainer of the day, finished up 0.9%.

CVS rose 2.4% on Monday, after the Wall Street Journal reported that hedge fund Glenview Capital Management planned to meet with the executives at the company to propose ways that could improve its operations. Solventum Corporation, a spinoff of 3M health care, and Intuitive Surgical, a health care equipment company, were also among the best S&P 500 performers of the day.

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Tasha Matsumoto

Stocks close lower, trimming steeper losses as oil retreats

Oil prices fell after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said his country is helping with US efforts to open the Strait of Hormuz.

Grizzly bear growling USA.

markets

Stocks get a jolt as Netanyahu says Israel is helping US efforts to open Strait of Hormuz

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a press conference that his country is helping with US efforts to open the Strait of Hormuz, putting a jolt into stocks.

The S&P 500, which had been solidly negative for most of the day, turned slightly green after the remarks. The rebound lost a bit of steam shortly thereafter, but stocks still remained higher than they were before Netanyahu’s comments.

“Israel is helping, in its own way, in intel and other means, the American efforts to open the Strait of [Hormuz],” Netanyahu said, according to a video of the press conference.

Here are another few interesting headlines coming across from the presser, per Reuters:

*NETANYAHU: IRAN HAS NO CAPACITY TO ENRICH URANIUM OR MAKE BALLISTIC MISSILES AFTER 20 DAYS OF WAR

*NETANYAHU: CAN’T DO A REVOLUTION FROM THE AIR, THERE NEEDS TO BE A GROUND COMPONENT AS WELL

*NETANYAHU: ISRAEL ACTED ALONE AGAINST SOUTH PARS

*NETANYAHU: TRUMP ASKED US TO HOLD OFF ON FUTURE SUCH ATTACKS

And here’s how the market reacted instantly after his comments:

Stocks Slump as Energy Surge Fuels Inflation Fears: Markets Wrap

Stocks Slump as Energy Surge Fuels Inflation Fears: Markets Wrap

“Israel is helping, in its own way, in intel and other means, the American efforts to open the Strait of [Hormuz],” Netanyahu said, according to a video of the press conference.

Here are another few interesting headlines coming across from the presser, per Reuters:

*NETANYAHU: IRAN HAS NO CAPACITY TO ENRICH URANIUM OR MAKE BALLISTIC MISSILES AFTER 20 DAYS OF WAR

*NETANYAHU: CAN’T DO A REVOLUTION FROM THE AIR, THERE NEEDS TO BE A GROUND COMPONENT AS WELL

*NETANYAHU: ISRAEL ACTED ALONE AGAINST SOUTH PARS

*NETANYAHU: TRUMP ASKED US TO HOLD OFF ON FUTURE SUCH ATTACKS

And here’s how the market reacted instantly after his comments:

markets

Matt Phillips6h

Gold tumbles as market sees Fed shifting toward inflation fighting

Gold and gold miners tumbled Thursday, as the rolling Iran war energy crisis revived worries about inflation and pushed the market to take additional rate cuts this year off the table.

Gold (SPDR Gold Shares ETF) futures dropped roughly 6% shortly after 12 p.m. ET, hammering share prices for miners Newmont and Freeport-McMoRan. Silver (iShares Silver Trust) futures were down nearly 9%.

The decline in precious metals came alongside another sharp rise in energy prices. US benchmark crude oil (United States Oil Fund LP) and natural gas prices both jumped more than 3% after major Iranian attacks on Qatari energy infrastructure. US retail gasoline prices tracked by the American Automobile Association hit $3.884, up 33% from the end of last month, when a joint US-Israeli attack on Iran ignited hostilities.

Normally, gold prices are seen as a hedge on inflation, which might suggest that they should rise alongside expectations for persistent price increases.

But the speed of the Iran war energy shock — which will add to inflationary pressures already visible in recent economic reports, such as this week’s Producer Price Index, and could become a political problem for the Trump administration — has nudged traders to change their their views on whether the Federal Reserve would be able to deliver the rate cuts widely expected just a few weeks ago.

Yields on shorter-maturity US Treasury notes shot higher Thursday, reflecting expectations for tighter monetary policy. And prices in the market for federal funds futures suggest traders no longer see the US central bank cutting interest rates this year at all. (Early this month, market pricing implied expectations for two more cuts this year.)

On Thursday, yields fell on longer-term US government securities, such as the US 30-year bond. That suggests the market thinks a Fed shift toward inflation fighting and away from rate cutting would likely result in some decline in growth and/or inflation, helping to explain the drop in precious metals prices, as there would be less of a need for inflation hedges in such a scenario.

Bond Traders No Longer Price In Any Chance of Fed Cut in 2026

Bond Traders No Longer Price In Any Chance of Fed Cut in 2026

The decline in precious metals came alongside another sharp rise in energy prices. US benchmark crude oil (United States Oil Fund LP) and natural gas prices both jumped more than 3% after major Iranian attacks on Qatari energy infrastructure. US retail gasoline prices tracked by the American Automobile Association hit $3.884, up 33% from the end of last month, when a joint US-Israeli attack on Iran ignited hostilities.

Normally, gold prices are seen as a hedge on inflation, which might suggest that they should rise alongside expectations for persistent price increases.

But the speed of the Iran war energy shock — which will add to inflationary pressures already visible in recent economic reports, such as this week’s Producer Price Index, and could become a political problem for the Trump administration — has nudged traders to change their their views on whether the Federal Reserve would be able to deliver the rate cuts widely expected just a few weeks ago.

Yields on shorter-maturity US Treasury notes shot higher Thursday, reflecting expectations for tighter monetary policy. And prices in the market for federal funds futures suggest traders no longer see the US central bank cutting interest rates this year at all. (Early this month, market pricing implied expectations for two more cuts this year.)

On Thursday, yields fell on longer-term US government securities, such as the US 30-year bond. That suggests the market thinks a Fed shift toward inflation fighting and away from rate cutting would likely result in some decline in growth and/or inflation, helping to explain the drop in precious metals prices, as there would be less of a need for inflation hedges in such a scenario.

markets

J. Edward Moreno7h

Novo says FDA has approved high-dose Wegovy shot

The Food and Drug Administration approved Novo Nordisk’s high-dose Wegovy shot, the company announced on Thursday.

Wegovy HD, a once-weekly 7.2-milligram injection, helped patients lose 20.7% of their body weight after 72 weeks, putting it in line with Eli Lilly’s competitor drug, Zepbound. By comparison, Wegovy typically has a maximum dose of 2.4 milligrams, which resulted in 15% weight reduction over 68 weeks in trials.

Wegovy HD was the first drug to be approved through the FDA’s new priority voucher system. This comes as Novo, despite being early to the GLP-1 boom, has been outpaced in sales by Lilly. The company released a pill version of Wegovy in January, which has shown strong early uptake, though new competitor products are set to debut this year and next.

The stock is down about 1.6% for the day, but was down nearly 3% before the announcement.

Tasha Matsumoto

Crudely speaking

What we talk about when we talk about crude oil

While both WTI and Brent are light and sweet crude, differences in geography and chemical composition influence the Brent-WTI spread.

ODESSA, TEXAS - APRIL 27: Pump jacks working on the Permian Basin near Odessa

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