Yiwen Lu11/8/24

US stocks had their best week of 2024

The S&P 500 was up 0.4% on Friday and 4.7% this week, its biggest weekly advance so far this year, as the postelection rally continues. The index crossed 6,000 briefly earlier today. Similarly, the Nasdaq 100 climbed 5.4% this week, while the Russell 2000 jumped 8.6%.

All 11 S&P 500 sectors were up this week, the first time since August. The consumer-discretionary sector added 7.5% this week, leading all sectors. It was primarily driven by Tesla, which rose 29.3% over the past five sessions.

On the day, communication services, technology, and materials declined.

Tesla was also the only Magnificent 7 stock that moved upward today. Other Big Tech companies were not enjoying the market rally as much as stocks that have a more obvious linkage to the president-elect, as the likes of Alphabet and Amazon declined modestly on Friday. Among other index movers, taser-maker Axon rose a whopping 28.7% after posting upbeat earnings; Airbnb fell 8.7% after a slight bump on Thursday.

Bonds had their biggest weekly gains since early September. Crude-oil futures fell on Friday, though the commodity still made gains this week. The US dollar advanced for the sixth consecutive week. Bitcoin neared the $77,000 benchmark.

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Matt Phillips21m

Rocket Lab slips with other momentum stocks despite DOD hypersonic test deal, new analyst “buy” call

Rocket Lab slipped early Thursday along with other momentum stocks, despite announcing a new $190 million deal for 20 tests of hypersonic rockets for the Department of Defense and picking up a new bullish analyst call.

The commercial space launch company called the deal to launch 20 hypersonic test flights over a four-year period in collaboration with Kratos Defense its “single largest launch agreement yet.”

Separately, analysts at brokerage firm Clear Street initiated coverage of Rocket Lab with a “buy” rating and an $88 price target — essentially the same as Wall Street’s $88.38 consensus, according to FactSet. That implies upside of about 27% for the stock compared to yesterday’s close. Clear Street analysts wrote:

“Despite shares rising 289% (vs. 26% for the NASDAQ) over the past year, we see further upside. Our $88 target is based on 20x 2030E EV/Sales, in line with the ~30x NTM EV/Revenue average over the past year when discounted to present value. We anchor on 2030E to capture the payoff from ~16 annual Neutron launches following a multi-year investment cycle. Our outlook incorporates estimated dilution and proceeds from the $1B equity distribution agreement announced on 3/17/2026.”

The favorable headlines for Rocket Lab weren’t enough to help the shares overcome a general downdraft for high-beta momentum stocks such as itself. They are getting hammered early on the deteriorating situation in the Mideast war.

Rocket Lab wins $190 million Pentagon deal for hypersonic test flights

Rocket Lab wins $190 million Pentagon deal for hypersonic test flights

Separately, analysts at brokerage firm Clear Street initiated coverage of Rocket Lab with a “buy” rating and an $88 price target — essentially the same as Wall Street’s $88.38 consensus, according to FactSet. That implies upside of about 27% for the stock compared to yesterday’s close. Clear Street analysts wrote:

“Despite shares rising 289% (vs. 26% for the NASDAQ) over the past year, we see further upside. Our $88 target is based on 20x 2030E EV/Sales, in line with the ~30x NTM EV/Revenue average over the past year when discounted to present value. We anchor on 2030E to capture the payoff from ~16 annual Neutron launches following a multi-year investment cycle. Our outlook incorporates estimated dilution and proceeds from the $1B equity distribution agreement announced on 3/17/2026.”

The favorable headlines for Rocket Lab weren’t enough to help the shares overcome a general downdraft for high-beta momentum stocks such as itself. They are getting hammered early on the deteriorating situation in the Mideast war.

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Max Knoblauch2h

Uber will invest $1.25 billion in Rivian in a new robotaxi deal

EV maker Rivian surged more than 9% in premarket trading on Thursday following an announcement that Uber will invest up to $1.25 billion in the company through 2031 as part of a robotaxi partnership.

The deal will begin with an initial $300 million investment, and Uber will purchase 10,000 autonomous versions of the R2. Uber will have the option to buy 40,000 more in 2030.

The R2 is Rivian’s smaller, less expensive model and is set to roll out to buyers in the second quarter of this year.

Per a company filing on Thursday, Rivian “no longer expects to be adjusted EBITDA positive in 2027 due to an expected increase in R&D spend associated with the acceleration of its autonomy roadmap.”

Uber, which has more than 20 autuonomous vehicle partnerships ranging from Alphabet’s Waymo to Baidu, has become a dominant robotaxi force.

Rivian had first hinted at robotaxi plans at its Autonomy and AI Day in December.

Uber to invest up to $1.25 billion in EV maker Rivian in deal to launch 50,000 robotaxis

Uber to invest up to $1.25 billion in EV maker Rivian in deal to launch 50,000 robotaxis

The R2 is Rivian’s smaller, less expensive model and is set to roll out to buyers in the second quarter of this year.

Per a company filing on Thursday, Rivian “no longer expects to be adjusted EBITDA positive in 2027 due to an expected increase in R&D spend associated with the acceleration of its autonomy roadmap.”

Uber, which has more than 20 autuonomous vehicle partnerships ranging from Alphabet’s Waymo to Baidu, has become a dominant robotaxi force.

Rivian had first hinted at robotaxi plans at its Autonomy and AI Day in December.

Hyunsoo Rim, David Crowther

Oil and gas prices jump, stocks slide, after Middle East strikes hit key energy infrastructure

Attacks on Iranian and Qatari energy facilities pushed Brent to $118, as Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth offered no deadline on an end to the war in a press conference.

Flare stack air pollution

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J. Edward Moreno3h

Lilly reports encouraging trial results for its next-gen GLP-1 shot

Eli Lilly released late-stage trial results for its next-generation GLP-1 shot, retatrutide, showing the drug helped patients lose more weight than anything currently on the market.

Patients taking the highest dose of retatrutide, 12 milligrams, lost 16.8% of their body weight after 40 weeks, more than its current bestseller, tirzepatide. The results also showed significant reduction in blood sugar levels.

The stock was flat in premarket trading following the news.

Lilly’s tirzepatide, sold under the brand names Zepbound and Mounjaro, is currently the most sold drug in the world. The company’s sales have now outpaced its top rival, Novo Nordisk, which was the first to bring a GLP-1 to market but has seen sales decelerate as competitors have muscled in.

Still, some expect Lilly’s winning streak may not last forever. Analysts at HSBC gave the stock a rare downgrade earlier this week, citing a crowded market, among other factors.

markets

Gold and silver dip amid inflation concerns and ongoing Iran war

Often seen as safe havens through times of uncertainty, precious metals aren’t acting that way today, as oil prices spike amid escalations in the Iran war, compounding inflationary concerns and sending the SPDR Gold Shares ETF and iShares Silver Trust down 3.4% and 6.6%, respectively, as of 6:55 a.m. ET.

Though the Fed kept rates steady yesterday, as was universally expected, officials raised their forecasts for inflation — a move that seems to have spooked investors, who had already been taking risk off the table in recent weeks. With Brent crude north of $114 per barrel this morning, investors look to be bracing for further inflationary shock and are dumping gold and silver, as implied odds of a Fed rate cut in June plummeted on prediction markets from 60% on February 23 to just 16% this morning.

The shiny metal slump is already weighing on mining stocks like Anglogold Ashanti, Newmont, Wheaton Precious Metals, and Agnico Eagle, which are all plunging in premarket trading.

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