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Elon 🤝 Elon 

SpaceX’s planned $1.5 trillion IPO is on track to be gargantuan enough

But a potential merger with xAI or Tesla would create a Musk-centric megaplanet.

Claire Yubin Oh

Some Elon Musk fans have long envisioned “Musk Inc.” — a tech monolith that brings the companies controlled by the world’s richest man under one giant umbrella. That reality might be more than a fantasy, as SpaceX is reportedly targeting a mid-June IPO, with considerations of a potential merger with Tesla or xAI. 

Consistent with Musk’s history of making light of major business moves, the rocket company is planning to go public when Jupiter and Venus appear very close together, which would likely be around June 9, according to astronomer Dominic Ford.

Any tie-up between SpaceX and Musk’s other companies would make it easier to pursue some of his most ambitious visions, like putting data centers into space. It would also be unbelievably complicated, particularly for Tesla, which is already public. But, even if the rocket company ends up going public on its own, it will be a serious force of gravity in the public markets, as it aims to raise as much as $50 billion at a targeted valuation of around $1.5 trillion.

SpaceX IPO
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At that kind of price tag, SpaceX alone would likely be the second-most-valuable IPO in history, second only to Saudi Arabia’s state-sponsored company, Aramco, which went public at a $1.7 trillion market cap, but with just ~1.5% of the company available for sale to the general public. In terms of money raised, SpaceX’s target to close $50 billion in new investment would be the biggest ever. OpenAI, another cash-burning tech name looking to potentially debut this year, could be the only challenge to that title.

SpaceX is likely to be very different. Indeed, retail traders are already showing appetite: the Private Shares Fund run by Kevin Moss — which invests exclusively in private companies, including 14% of its holdings in SpaceX — has seen its inflows surging more than 200% since the rocket maker’s IPO news was first announced in early December. 

Whichever direction the company chooses to open its investor base, Elon Musk is likely to be a big winner, with his ~42% stake in the rocket company potentially worth more than $600 billion if the targeted valuation is hit. That would be way more than his Tesla nest egg, worth some $178 billion per Bloomberg’s Billionaires Index based on today’s market cap figures.

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SpaceX gets a wave of bullish ratings from Wall Street analysts

SpaceX received more than a dozen positive analyst calls on Tuesday — including from major Wall Street banks — as they initiate coverage on Elon Musk’s space and AI company.

SpaceX went public on June 12 at a $2.2 trillion valuation, the largest debut in history. While the company hasn’t yet posted a profit, it seems to have convinced Wall Street that it will get there and grow its valuation on the way.

Of the at least 17 analysts that gave a rating on Tuesday, all but one gave it a “buy” or “outperform” rating. MoffettNathanson was "neutral."

The ratings come as SpaceX joined the Nasdaq 100 index, a benchmark tech-heavy basket of companies that underpins millions of portfolios. The inclusion adds built-in demand for the stock from index funds and ETFs.

Still, SpaceX fell more than 5% on Tuesday amid a broader sell-off, and is currently effectively flat from its opening price of $150 a share.

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Nike sinks to lowest level since 2014 after warning of “challenged” sales environment in Q4 report

Did Nike do it?

Investors had a mixed reaction after the global sports apparel company reported its fourth quarter earnings on Tuesday after the bell. Shares initially rose 5% as Nike beat out Wall Street expectations amid a hefty tariff refund bonus. However, the stock then sank to its lowest level since August 2014 in postmarket trading.

Here are the Q4 numbers:

  • Revenue of $11.0 billion (estimate: $10.8 billion).

  • Adjusted earnings per share of $0.20 (estimate: $0.12).

Ahead of this report, Nike warned that results would be flattered by a one-time tariff refund (now estimated at roughly $0.52 per share for the bottom line). That gave the company an extra cushion in snapping its streak of seven quarters of year-over-year profit declines.

Over the past year, the company had been punished by tariffs on imported goods, stagnant consumer spending, and increasing competition from other footwear brands like New Balance, Adidas, and Hoka.

Outgoing CFO Matthew Friend deemed it an “increasingly challenging operating environment, where sell-through remains challenged.”

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