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Should you buy the dip the day after stocks drop? Maybe

When the going gets tough the tough get going.

8/6/24 8:44AM

Yesterday’s market mayhem, in which the Nikkei 225 recorded its worst one-day drop since 1987, US stocks fell 3%, and the Magnificent 7 shed some $650 billion of market cap, saw Wall Street’s “fear gauge” hit levels not seen since the pandemic.

It was, as Luke Kawa put it, what panic looks like.

Whenever stocks make the headlines, there’s always an army of people — from professional fund managers to retail traders — ready to tell you exactly what to do next: buy the dip.

But, what does the data say about that strategy? A simple inspection of every single day the S&P 500 has fallen more than 2% since 1970 reveals that, a slim majority (54.5%) of the time, stocks do indeed rise the day after a 2%+ fall. On average, per our calculations, the S&P 500 Index rose 0.14% the day after a 2%+ drop.

Should you buy the dip? Maybe — Sherwood News

The Nikkei 225 obviously didn’t get the memo: the Japanese index which cratered yesterday has rebounded sharply, up 10% this morning.

What about a longer time horizon: A tome of academic research has found evidence of both mean reversion (stocks reversing course) and momentum (stocks continuing to trend in the same direction) in equity markets. How can they both be true? The difference lies usually in how long a time period you’re measuring.

In the long run, stocks tend go up.

Nia Warfield, Luke Kawa

US stocks in holding pattern ahead of Wednesday’s Fed decision

Major indexes closed down 0.1%.

Luke Kawa

GameStop can’t stop winning, on track for longest streak of gains since 2022

Unless we jinx it, GameStop is poised for its longest winning streak since 2022, with shares up 3% as of 2:04 p.m. ET.

The video game and collectibles retailer hasn’t posted a down day since September 4 and is poised for its eighth consecutive day of gains. Shares are up nearly 18% over this period, versus a 1.6% advance for the S&P 500.

The bulk of these gains came in the wake of the company’s stellar second-quarter earnings report, which exceeded expectations on the top and bottom lines as well as marking the fifth consecutive quarter of positive operating cash flow generation for the first time in its history.

Including this one, the company has posted eight or more consecutive days of gains on 25 occasions during its history as a publicly traded company.

Its last seven-session winning streak came in mid-July of last year, about a month after Keith Gill (aka Roaring Kitty) disappeared from the scene after his brief reappearance, as part of a relatively violent market rotation into small-cap stocks.

Max Knoblauch

Nio surges to an 11-month high following an upgrade from UBS ahead of its new SUV launch

Chinese EV maker Nio is climbing for the fourth straight trading day, following an upgrade from UBS to “buy” from “neutral.” Nio’s nearly 7% jump propelled the stock to its highest level since last October.

UBS also bumped its price target for Nio up to $8.50, a 37% hike.

Nio will begin deliveries of its new ES8 SUV this weekend, priced to compete with Tesla’s Model Y. Last week, the EV maker said it planned to raise up to $1 billion on a share offering.

According to UBS analyst Paul Gong, Nio’s latest products “could further attract consumers after the US $1 billion equity offerings strengthened visibility on its healthy operations.”

J. Edward Moreno

Moderna is up on the release of positive results for reformulated Covid vaccine

Moderna rose on Tuesday after it announced encouraging trial results for its next COVID-19 vaccine.

The data from its phase 4 clinical trial showed the 2025-26 formula of its COVID-19 vaccine, which targets a new variant and was recently approved by the FDA with some limitations, produced a strong immune response among people ages 12 through 64. Covid vaccine sales account for virtually all of Moderna’s revenue.

The company has had a tumultuous year as the Trump administration makes moves to limit who is able to access the vaccine. Last month, the FDA limited approval for the coronavirus vaccine to higher-risk populations; previously, anyone older than 6 months was eligible for it.

Max Knoblauch

Rivian climbs as it breaks ground on a $5 billion EV plant that could produce 200,000 vehicles a year by 2028

EV tax credits may be ending this month, but Rivian’s still optimistic about future demand.

The electric vehicle maker on Tuesday broke ground on its delayed $5 billion Georgia plant that it says will be able to produce 200,000 vehicles per year by 2028. (For comparison, Rivian expects to deliver up to 46,000 EVs this year.) Its shares climbed more than 6% on the news.

The plant will create 7,500 permanent jobs once complete, according to Rivian, with the first phase of production beginning next year.

2026 also marks the planned launch year for Rivian’s R2 electric SUV, expected to start around $45,000 and compete with Tesla’s Model Y. Earlier this month, Lucid confirmed that it too would be creating a roughly $50,000 electric SUV.

If it seems like an odd time to build an EV plant, it probably is. But unlike larger rivals GM and Honda, Rivian doesn’t have the ability to scale back its EV ambitions — they’re the only vehicles the automaker produces. Last month, the company posted a steeper loss than analysts expected, losing $1.12 billion over its second quarter.

It's 'do or die' for electric vehicle maker Rivian as it breaks ground on a $5 billion plant