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The US economy has a ‘dinner sausage’ problem

According to Dallas Fed's latest manufacturing survey, Texans are turning to this cheaper source of protein.

Yiwen Lu

As the old saying goes, you never want to know how the sausage gets made.

But according to one food manufacturer in the state of Texas, you always want to know how much dinner sausage gets sold.

Dinner sausage consumption grew modestly, according to one comment in the Dallas Fed’s Texas Manufacturing Outlook survey, adding that demand tends to “grow when the economy weakens, as sausage is a good protein substitute for higher-priced proteins and can ‘stretch’ consumers’ food budgets.” 

We have seen this happening before: As beef prices soared, chicken became the more favorable and affordable option. Everyday Americans continue to feel the pinch of high prices, even if the deceleration in inflation means they’re rising more slowly.

As another manufacturing executive put it: "we are preparing for the recession."

A caveat is needed: respondents to the Dallas Fed’s economic surveys have a long history of hyperbole and a distinct partisan slant. Most notably, corporate leaders were in uproar over millennial laziness ruining their businesses back in 2016.

Americans spend billions of dollars on sausages. According to the National Hot Dog and Sausage Council, dinner sausage sales in 2023 were nearly 1.2 billion pounds, and consumers spent more than $5.3 billion dollars on it. That’s more than sales for breakfast sausage and hot dogs. 

A point in favor of the Texan food manufacturer’s remark: the amount of sausages sold was higher in 2020 than it was last year, with 1.27 billion pounds of dinner sausage unloaded during the onset of the pandemic. That totaled more than $4.8 billion dollars spent, the council’s data showed. That’s a 14.9% increase from 2019. Consumption slightly declined in the few years that followed.

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Retail traders are “skipping the dip” this time

Here’s one noteworthy feature of the recent market downturn that has the S&P 500 poised for its worst week since reciprocal tariffs were announced in early April: retail traders seemingly aren’t eager to buy the weakness in single stocks the way they used to be.

JPMorgan strategist Arun Jain has flagged that retail traders instead appear to be “skipping the dip.”

“In contrast to the behavior observed during the post-Liberation Day selloff, retail investors did not seize the opportunity to buy-the-dip on Tuesday, with a few exceptions such as META,” he wrote of the day where the benchmark US stock index fell 1.2%. “In fact, they scaled back their ETF purchases and turned net sellers in single stocks.”

Then on Thursday, when the S&P 500 fell 1.1%, Jain projected that retail traders sold $261 million in single stocks. Through noon ET on Friday, his daily outflow estimate stands at $851 million.

With that intel, it’s little wonder why the carnage this week has been particularly intense in more speculative single stocks that had been favored by the retail community, including IREN, IonQ, Rigetti, Cipher Mining, Bloom Energy, and Oklo.

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Archer Aviation plunges on $650 million share sale following its third-quarter results

Air taxi maker Archer Aviation is deep in the red on Friday morning after reporting its third-quarter results after the bell Thursday. The stock is down more than 12%.

Investors don’t appear to be thrilled about the company’s $650 million direct stock offering, announced alongside its results.

The move marks at least the third major equity raise, and dilution, for Archer this year. The company raised $300 million from a new stock sale in February, and sold $850 million worth of shares in June.

On Archer’s earnings call Thursday, interim CFO Priya Gupta said the company came to the decision after “substantial inbound interest.” According to Gupta, the company has heard from government and commercial partners that liquidity is a “key driver to their decisions of who to partner with.” With its latest share sale, Archer said its total liquidity is more than $2 billion.

The move marks at least the third major equity raise, and dilution, for Archer this year. The company raised $300 million from a new stock sale in February, and sold $850 million worth of shares in June.

On Archer’s earnings call Thursday, interim CFO Priya Gupta said the company came to the decision after “substantial inbound interest.” According to Gupta, the company has heard from government and commercial partners that liquidity is a “key driver to their decisions of who to partner with.” With its latest share sale, Archer said its total liquidity is more than $2 billion.

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