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Rocket Lab reports better-than-expected Q1 sales, stock rises

Retail favorite Rocket Lab rose late Thursday after reporting better-than-expected Q1 sales and offering upbeat sales guidance for Q2.

Here’s how the company did:

  • Q1 revenue of $200.3 million vs. Wall Street’s expectation for $189.7 million, according to FactSet.

  • An adjusted loss per share of $0.07 vs. the consensus estimate of a $0.07 loss.

  • Adjusted EBITDA of -$11.8 million vs. the analyst forecast of -$26.3 million.

  • Q2 sales guidance of between $225 million and $240 million ($232.5 million midpoint) vs. expectations for $205.3 million.

  • Q2 guidance for EBITDA between -$20 million and -$26 million (-$23 million midpoint) vs. the -$14.5 million analysts were penciling in.

Rocket Lab shares have surged roughly 2,000% over the last two years, as the company capitalized on investor enthusiasm for space.

Over the last year, Rocket Lab also rode growing excitement about companies that plan to use their ability to place clusters of satellites into low-Earth orbit and then sell data services to earthlings below — essentially the business model of Elon Musk’s Starlink.

Though it’s privately held for now, Musk’s space behemoth, SpaceX, remains the key source of excitement around the sector, enthusiasm that will likely grow as the company moves forward with plans for what’s likely to be the largest public offering ever.

Rabid space enthusiasm aside, Rocket Lab remains a money-losing company that’s burning a lot of cash, though Wall Street analysts think it could break even in 2027.

We’ll see. That projection hangs on the company’s ability to get its larger Neutron rocket into its commercial launch cycle sooner rather than later. And given that Neutron’s maiden launch — originally slated for 2025 — has been delayed to the fourth quarter of 2026, that’s by no means assured.

Separately, Rocket Lab also announced that it’s signed the largest launch services contract in its history with a “confidential customer.”

The multi-launch agreement includes five dedicated Neutron launches and three of the company’s smaller Electron rocket. The launches are expected to occur between 2026 and 2029. Terms of the deal were not disclosed.

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SpaceX gets a wave of bullish ratings from Wall Street analysts

SpaceX received more than a dozen positive analyst calls on Tuesday — including from major Wall Street banks — as they initiate coverage on Elon Musk’s space and AI company.

SpaceX went public on June 12 at a $2.2 trillion valuation, the largest debut in history. While the company hasn’t yet posted a profit, it seems to have convinced Wall Street that it will get there and grow its valuation on the way.

Of the at least 17 analysts that gave a rating on Tuesday, all but one gave it a “buy” or “outperform” rating. MoffettNathanson was "neutral."

The ratings come as SpaceX joined the Nasdaq 100 index, a benchmark tech-heavy basket of companies that underpins millions of portfolios. The inclusion adds built-in demand for the stock from index funds and ETFs.

Still, SpaceX fell more than 5% on Tuesday amid a broader sell-off, and is currently effectively flat from its opening price of $150 a share.

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