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Roblox craters after Q1 daily active users miss estimates while management slashes full-year guidance

The bottom is falling out of Roblox in postmarket trading after the video game company’s Q1 daily active users fell short of estimates and management cut full-year guidance.

For the period ended March 31, the company reported: 

  • Net revenue of $1.44 billion (compared to analyst estimates for $1.42 billion).

  • Daily active users of 132 million (estimate: 143.8 million).

The real pain, though, comes from the reduced full-year outlook, with management lowering their view for sales to between $5.87 billion and $6.14 billion, down from a range of $6.02 billion to $6.29 billion. In other words, the old base case for sales is now their best-case scenario.

The firm also cut its outlook for 2026 bookings (money spent on in-game currency known as Robux) to a range of $7.33 billion to $7.6 billion (previously $8.28 billion to $8.55 billion).

Analysts were way off-side, having expected full-year revenue of $6.6 billion and bookings of $8.4 billion.

The stock hit its lowest level since October 2024 in the after-hours session. It’s been languishing near its 52-week low after halving over the past six months, with analysts wondering whether the kid-focused company has a plan to stay out of legal trouble, monetize, and “age up” in the years ahead. 

Roughly one-third of the video game company’s users are under 13. This month, Roblox announced expanded controls for parents and the rollout of Roblox Kids (for ages 5 to 8) and Roblox Select (for ages 9 to 15) this June. These launches are one part of its multitiered safety plan, which includes third-party biometric scans — something kids have been expertly outsmarting. 

Roblox’s decision to cut its guidance for 2026 was “largely safely-related,” Roblox’s C-suite said on Thursday’s earnings call. As Roblox started age-gating, CFO Naveen Chopra explained, many users lost access to intercommunications on the platform — resulting in a lack of engagement and daily active users, as well as negative App Store reviews (which management also blamed on running annoying ads).

David Baszucki, Roblox CEO:

We have seen a reduction in App Store rating, and we believe this may be contributing to a reduction in organic sign ups that typically flow from app stores.

Naveen Chopra, Roblox CFO:

We do know that the fact that we had more sign up headwinds over the last few months is going to put pressure on bookings over the remainder of the year.

Over the past month, the company has also importantly settled with several states over lawsuits that allege the company failed to implement proper security to protect children from adults on the site, which showed up in the company’s quarterly bill.

The platform paid out $1.5 billion to creators in 2025, and the company overall remains in the red.

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SpaceX gets a wave of bullish ratings from Wall Street analysts

SpaceX received more than a dozen positive analyst calls on Tuesday — including from major Wall Street banks — as they initiate coverage on Elon Musk’s space and AI company.

SpaceX went public on June 12 at a $2.2 trillion valuation, the largest debut in history. While the company hasn’t yet posted a profit, it seems to have convinced Wall Street that it will get there and grow its valuation on the way.

Of the at least 17 analysts that gave a rating on Tuesday, all but one gave it a “buy” or “outperform” rating. MoffettNathanson was "neutral."

The ratings come as SpaceX joined the Nasdaq 100 index, a benchmark tech-heavy basket of companies that underpins millions of portfolios. The inclusion adds built-in demand for the stock from index funds and ETFs.

Still, SpaceX fell more than 5% on Tuesday amid a broader sell-off, and is currently effectively flat from its opening price of $150 a share.

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