4/16/25

Retailers’ profits will get clobbered by more than 30% by tariffs, says Morgan Stanley

Analysts at Morgan Stanley crunched the numbers and it turns out tariffs are really, really bad for US retailers.

Acknowledging that “a wide range of outcomes is possible,” the analysts found that recently enacted tariffs would increase prices by 1% and decrease volumes by 3%. This assumes a 145% tariff on China and a 10% tariff on everyone else besides Canada and Mexico.

On average, earnings per share would decline by 33%, with some companies more exposed than others, the analysts wrote.

Among the most exposed companies are Target, Academy, and Restoration Hardware. (If you don’t believe them, I’d point you to the Restoration Hardware CEO’s reaction on an earnings call when seeing the impact of President Trump’s April 2 tariff announcement had on his stock in real time.) The least exposed are grocery stores like Kroger and Albertsons.

Screenshot 2025-04-16 at 11.42.13 AM — (Morgan Stanley)

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Matt Phillips

Electricity inflation hits highest level in two years as AI boom rumbles on

Is your power bill going to to kill the AI trade?

Nia Warfield, Luke Kawa

14m

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 post record closing highs as nearly everything rallies

The benchmark US stock index ended up 0.9%, the Nasdaq 100 rose 0.6%, and the Russell 2000 outperformed with a 1.8% gain.

Bull charging across sand creating dust cloud

Nia Warfield

Warner Bros. Discovery jumps after Wells Fargo ups price target on dealmaking buzz

Warner Bros. Discovery shares popped 7% Tuesday after Wells Fargo raised its price target on the media giant to $14 from $13, while keeping an equal-weight rating.

The bank’s optimism stemmed largely from the media giant’s potential for dealmaking. In June, WBD announced that it would would split its operations into two companies, with the Streaming & Studios division (home to Warner Bros. Television, DC Studios, HBO, and Max) standing alone from the networks side (CNN, TNT Sports, and Discovery).

That separation could make the Streaming & Studios unit more attractive to buyers, the analysts said. They valued the segment at about $65 billion, which could translate to a takeover price north of $21 a share. Potential suitors range from Amazon and Apple to Sony and Comcast, though analysts flagged Netflix as the “most compelling” option despite its limited acquisition track record:

“While NFLX has historically not been acquisitive, [streaming and studios’] $12bn in annual content spend + library + 100+ acre studio lot offers a lot. It kickstarts a theatrical IP strategy, quickly scales video games and most importantly provides premium content to members.”

At Goldman Sachs’ Communacopia Conference this week, CEO David Zaslav also highlighted growing traction at HBO Max and hinted at future crackdowns on password sharing.

WBD shares are up 26% year-to-date, and up over 93% over the past 12 months.

Matt Phillips

Duolingo up on bullish note, hopes for a user rebound

Duolingo rose by the most in nearly a month after an analyst note painted a more bullish picture of the gamified language-learning company despite a dearth of news otherwise.

A quick check-in with analysts covering the stock on Wall Street found most of them otherwise flummoxed on the reason behind the uptick Thursday.

Some, however, suggested the rise may reflect optimism that the company has been able to reverse a monthslong downturn in daily active user metrics — a slump that set in after a social media backlash to a somewhat artless LinkedIn post from the company about its AI first strategy.

The bullish analyst note, published Thursday by Citizens JMP, suggested Duolingo could be a big beneficiary from a change to Apple’s rules governing its App Store driven by a ruling on a federal antitrust case against the company. The analysts wrote:

“Apple’s recent changes to U.S. App Store rules that allow developers to steer payments to the web where fees are similar to typical credit card fees rather than Apple’s 30% fee for in-app purchases and 30% fee on subscriptions for the first year and 15% thereafter, we expect mobile app companies including Duolingo, Life360, and Grindr Inc. to unlock meaningful cost benefits.”

At any rate, the next big event on the company’s calendar is its Duocon 2025 conference on Tuesday, where analysts are hoping to hear more hard information on all of the above topics.

Max Knoblauch

Jeep maker Stellantis surges as CEO says the automaker is in productive tariff talks with the US

Shares of Jeep and Dodge maker Stellantis are up more than 8% in Thursday afternoon trading, following comments from the automaker’s new CEO, Antonio Filosa, at a European auto conference.

On tariffs, Filosa said that Stellantis has had a “very productive exchange of ideas” with the Trump administration on the company’s manufacturing footprint and that the environment around the levies is “getting clearer and clearer.”

The US is Stellantis’ top priority, according to Filosa, and the company has taken efforts to turn things around in the market, where it’s struggled with sales in recent years. To fuel the turnaround, Stellantis is bringing back its popular Jeep Cherokee, which it discontinued in 2023.

As of 12:45 p.m. ET, Stellantis’ trading volume was at more than 140% of its average over the past 30 days.

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