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Retail traders’ success is thanks to doubling down on two things that have worked: “AI” and “buy the dip”

Main Street bought after weakness at three distinct moments early in the year.

This year, we’ve seen evidence that the increased presence of retail traders is changing how stocks behave around earnings announcements, and even forcing institutional investors to buy what they’re buying.

“2025 is set to be a record year for retail traders,” JPMorgan strategist Arun Jain wrote on the footprint of the retail community, noting that inflows by the cohort are “tracking at ~1.9 times the 5-year average, 50% above the levels seen last year and 12% above the previous peak seen during the retail mania of 2021.”

And for these traders, it’s also been a successful stretch because of a continued willingness to double down on a theme that’s been the biggest driver of market success in recent years (AI) and a tactic that hasn’t yet let them down (buy the dip).

“Retail investors began the year by sizeably buying the dip during three episodes of weakness (Post-DeepSeek correction, Momentum Unwind, and Liberation Day meltdown) — building 75% of their year to date single stock position during Jan-Apr and making Tech, particularly Nvidia and Tesla, clear winners of this trend,” he wrote.

JPM cumulative retail buying
JPMorgan

(Side note: poor Apple!)

For years, retail has been building an increasingly de facto “overweight AI, underweight everything else” position.

“In fact, retail investors have proved their conviction in the AI theme by funding large purchases in AI30/Mag 7 with holdings in the SPX 470,” Jain added. “This bifurcation has been persistent since 2023 following the launch of ChatGPT.”

JPM retail quarterly buying activity
JPMorgan

Since the release of ChatGPT on November 30, 2022, the maximum number of days between fresh highs in the S&P 500 has been 128 sessions (or a little over six months), a milestone-free dry spell that ran from February 19 to June 27 of this year. During that period and thereafter, AI-geared stocks have played a key role in fueling the market’s gains.

As such, buying the dip — and doing so across AI stocks in particular — has been an extremely potent combination.

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Microsoft is in talks to shift its custom chip business to Broadcom from Marvell, The Information reports

The Information’s profile of custom chip specialist Broadcom includes this tidbit:

“And now Microsoft is also in talks to design future chips with Broadcom, which would involve Microsoft switching its business from Marvell, another maker of custom chips, according to one person involved in the discussions.”

Shares of Marvell Technology briefly dipped into the red after this report hit the wires, but then pared that drop to trade modestly higher. The company codesigns the Maia line of ASICs for Microsoft that are custom-built for Azure. Microsoft is its second-biggest hyperscaler client, behind Amazon.

Marvell tumbled on a ho-hum earnings report earlier this week before going on to surge after CEO Matt Murphy offered a $10 billion revenue target for its upcoming fiscal year, which was above analysts’ expectations.

Perhaps this is a bit of Information fatigue, given how Microsoft was quick to deny a report from the outlet earlier this week about how the tech giant lowered its sales targets for AI products.

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Memory stocks soar as AI supporting cast repairs damage from steep November declines

Not much rhyme or reason to it, but memory stocks are ending the week with a stellar showing.

Shares of Micron, the high-bandwidth memory specialist, hard disk drive sellers Seagate Technology Holdings and Western Digital, and flash memory company Sandisk are all rising today.

Three of these stocks dropped about 20% as credit risk seeping into AI and a downturn in speculative momentum stocks weighed on the theme in November, with Sandisk faring the worst.

Micron, Western Digital, and Seagate have all since rebounded strongly and are about 5% or less from reclaiming all-time highs, while Sandisk has made up the least ground.

While GPUs (and, more recently, TPUs) get most of the headlines, data centers also need a boatload of memory chips that store information and feed it to those processors.

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Ulta soars as Q3 beat sparks flood of price target hikes

Ulta’s latest makeover is happening on Wall Street. Shares leapt Friday morning as analysts hiked their price targets after the beauty retailer topped Q3 estimates and raised its full-year outlook after the bell Thursday.

Earnings came in at $5.14 per share, handily beating analyst expectations of $4.64. Revenue also topped estimates at $2.86 billion, compared with the $2.72 billion expected. Ulta has benefited from resilient beauty spending, even as consumers pull back elsewhere and hunt more aggressively for discounts.

Ulta now expects full-year net sales of about $12.3 billion, up from a prior forecast of $12.0 billion to $12.1 billion. The retailer also lifted its earnings outlook to $25.20 to $25.50 per share, up from $23.85 to $24.30 previously. This marks Ulta’s second straight quarter of hiking its sales and profit forecast. Analysts are taking note:

  • Goldman Sachs maintained its “buy” rating and raised its price target to $642 from $584.

  • DA Davidson maintained its “buy” rating and raised its price target to $650 from $625.

  • JPMorgan maintained its “outperform” rating and raised its price target to $647 from $606.

  • Baird maintained its “outperform” rating and hiked its price target to $670 from $600.

  • Telsey Advisory maintained its “outperform” rating and raised its price target to $640 from $610.

  • Piper Sandler maintained its “outperform” rating and raised its price target to $615 from $590.

  • Canaccord Genuity maintained its “neutral” rating and raised its price target to $674 from $654.

markets

Southwest cuts its earnings outlook on lost revenue due to government shutdown

Another big four airline has put a price tag on the 43-day government shutdown.

Southwest Airlines on Friday said lower revenue due to a temporary decline in demand during the shutdown, together with higher fuel costs, will ding its annual earnings before interest and taxes by between $100 million and $300 million. The carrier lowered its full-year EBIT outlook to $500 million, down from a prior range of $600 million to $800 million.

According to Southwest’s filing, bookings have returned to previous expectations following the end of the shutdown. Its shares dipped down about 1% in premarket trading.

The carrier joins Delta Air Lines in assigning a cost to the government closure. Earlier this week, Delta said the shutdown would cost it $200 million in the fourth quarter.

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