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Retail investors’ relentless buying this year is starting to pay off

Retail investors’ decision to “buy the dip” paid off in April, JPMorgan analysts say.

5/15/25 9:04AM

After underperforming for much of the year, retail investors’ faith in relentless buy-the-dip strategies is starting to pay off, as a surge in prices of top retail picks like Tesla, Palantir, and Nvidia has helped them sharply cut losses compared to the market.

Retail investors propped up the markets in April, analysts at JPMorgan say, who produce some of the best granular data on the trading activity of the crowd:

The buy-the-dip strategy in early April has clearly paid off.

We estimate retail investors’ portfolio is up 15.1% since Apr 8th , closely aligning with the market performance of +15.8%.

YTD, their portfolio is down slightly by 2% vs. the market which is almost flat.

Notably, their buy-the-dip strategy and gradual buying during the subsequent rally (with a reduced pace) has historically been profitable. For example, during the 2020 COVID recovery from the March low to the June high, retails added $46Bn to their portfolio, resulting in a YTD return of +30.7%, more than double the market performance of 15.3%.

Back in late March, JPM estimated that retail traders had been trailing the market by about 4%.

In fact, retail’s share of activity hit 36% on April 28 and April 29, which JPM analysts called “the highest level in our history.”

For the record, it seems that individual investors have moved relatively quickly to lock in some of those recent gains with sales of some popular stocks.

Here’s JPM’s list of top sales for retail traders over the last week:

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Warner Bros. Discovery jumps after Wells Fargo ups price target on dealmaking buzz

Warner Bros. Discovery shares popped 7% Tuesday after Wells Fargo raised its price target on the media giant to $14 from $13 while keeping an equal-weight rating.

The bank’s optimism stemmed largely from the media giant’s potential for dealmaking. In June, WBD announced that it would split its operations into two companies, with the Streaming & Studios division (home to Warner Bros. Television, DC Studios, HBO, and Max) standing alone from the networks side (CNN, TNT Sports, and Discovery).

That separation could make the Streaming & Studios unit more attractive to buyers, the analysts said. They valued the segment at about $65 billion, which could translate to a takeover price north of $21 a share. Potential suitors range from Amazon and Apple to Sony and Comcast, though analysts flagged Netflix as the “most compelling” option despite its limited acquisition track record:

“While NFLX has historically not been acquisitive, [streaming and studios’] $12bn in annual content spend + library + 100+ acre studio lot offers a lot. It kickstarts a theatrical IP strategy, quickly scales video games and most importantly provides premium content to members.”

At Goldman Sachs’ Communacopia + Technology Conference this week, CEO David Zaslav also highlighted growing traction at HBO Max and hinted at future crackdowns on password sharing.

WBD shares are up 26% year to date, and up more than 93% over the past 12 months.

markets

Duolingo up on bullish note, hopes for a user rebound

Duolingo rose by the most in nearly a month after an analyst note painted a more bullish picture of the gamified language-learning company despite a dearth of news otherwise.

A quick check-in with analysts covering the stock on Wall Street found most of them otherwise flummoxed on the reason behind the uptick Thursday.

Some, however, suggested the rise may reflect optimism that the company has been able to reverse a monthslong downturn in daily active user metrics — a slump that set in after a social media backlash to a somewhat artless LinkedIn post from the company about its AI first strategy.

The bullish analyst note, published Thursday by Citizens JMP, suggested Duolingo could be a big beneficiary from a change to Apple’s rules governing its App Store driven by a ruling on a federal antitrust case against the company. The analysts wrote:

Given “Apple’s recent changes to U.S. App Store rules that allow developers to steer payments to the web where fees are similar to typical credit card fees rather than Apple’s 30% fee for in-app purchases and 30% fee on subscriptions for the first year and 15% thereafter, we expect mobile app companies including Duolingo, Life360, and Grindr Inc. to unlock meaningful cost benefits.”

At any rate, the next big event on the company’s calendar is its Duocon 2025 conference on Tuesday, where analysts are hoping to hear more hard information on all of the above topics.

markets

Jeep maker Stellantis surges as CEO says the automaker is in productive tariff talks with the US

Shares of Jeep and Dodge maker Stellantis are up more than 8% in Thursday afternoon trading, following comments from the automaker’s new CEO, Antonio Filosa, at a European auto conference.

On tariffs, Filosa said that Stellantis has had a “very productive exchange of ideas” with the Trump administration on the company’s manufacturing footprint and that the environment around the levies is “getting clearer and clearer.”

The US is Stellantis’ top priority, according to Filosa, and the company has taken efforts to turn things around in the market, where its struggled with sales in recent years. To fuel the turnaround, Stellantis is bringing back its popular Jeep Cherokee, which it discontinued in 2023.

As of 12:45 p.m. ET, Stellantis’ trading volume was at more than 140% of its average over the past 30 days.

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