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Plug Power
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Incentives!

Plug Power soars on tax-incentive news

Guidance on a lucrative tax incentive created by the Biden administration’s Inflation Reduction Act sent Plug Power soaring on Monday.

Matt Phillips

Shares of Plug Power rocketed higher on Monday after analysts at JPMorgan said the company stood to benefit from recent guidance from the Treasury Department about a lucrative hydrogen-related tax credit.

Essentially, the idea is that the final federal-government guidance on how these tax breaks — known as 45V — can be used might boost investment in cleaner ways to produce hydrogen, which could help in meeting climate-change goals.

Currently, hydrogen is primarily harvested from natural gas in a process that produces large carbon-dioxide emissions. (It’s possible to produce it without such emissions, but it’s expensive, which is why government incentives are required.)

Plug Power makes a piece of equipment called electrolyzers that split water into hydrogen and oxygen and are important parts of clean hydrogen production.

In a note published on Monday, JPMorgan analysts said that additional US hydrogen investment could boost domestic sales of Plug Power’s electrolyzers, most of which are sold in Europe and Australia.

Positive 45V guidance revisions will primarily help the electrolyzer side of the business, though upside has not been baked into the 2025 revenue guidance; rather revenue growth will be driven by what is already in the backlog and international opportunities, with only a few hundreds of MWs of 2025 electrolyzer deals linked specifically to the US.

JPMorgan analysts also included a word of caution, adding that “while the final guidance being released is certainly positive in our view, we think some investors may still harbor concerns around the implementation of the credit which will largely fall to the incoming Trump administration.”

If there are concerns, it’s hard to find them in the stock market today, as the stock is up more than 20%.

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SpaceX gets a wave of bullish ratings from Wall Street analysts

SpaceX received more than a dozen positive analyst calls on Tuesday — including from major Wall Street banks — as they initiate coverage on Elon Musk’s space and AI company.

SpaceX went public on June 12 at a $2.2 trillion valuation, the largest debut in history. While the company hasn’t yet posted a profit, it seems to have convinced Wall Street that it will get there and grow its valuation on the way.

Of the at least 17 analysts that gave a rating on Tuesday, all but one gave it a “buy” or “outperform” rating. MoffettNathanson was "neutral."

The ratings come as SpaceX joined the Nasdaq 100 index, a benchmark tech-heavy basket of companies that underpins millions of portfolios. The inclusion adds built-in demand for the stock from index funds and ETFs.

Still, SpaceX fell more than 5% on Tuesday amid a broader sell-off, and is currently effectively flat from its opening price of $150 a share.

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Nike sinks to lowest level since 2014 after warning of “challenged” sales environment in Q4 report

Did Nike do it?

Investors had a mixed reaction after the global sports apparel company reported its fourth quarter earnings on Tuesday after the bell. Shares initially rose 5% as Nike beat out Wall Street expectations amid a hefty tariff refund bonus. However, the stock then sank to its lowest level since August 2014 in postmarket trading.

Here are the Q4 numbers:

  • Revenue of $11.0 billion (estimate: $10.8 billion).

  • Adjusted earnings per share of $0.20 (estimate: $0.12).

Ahead of this report, Nike warned that results would be flattered by a one-time tariff refund (now estimated at roughly $0.52 per share for the bottom line). That gave the company an extra cushion in snapping its streak of seven quarters of year-over-year profit declines.

Over the past year, the company had been punished by tariffs on imported goods, stagnant consumer spending, and increasing competition from other footwear brands like New Balance, Adidas, and Hoka.

Outgoing CFO Matthew Friend deemed it an “increasingly challenging operating environment, where sell-through remains challenged.”

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