Pfizer falls after 2026 guidance falls short of analysts’ expectations
Pfizer is lower in early trading after reaffirming its 2025 guidance and giving analysts a fresh steer on 2026.
The company said it expects 2026 annual adjusted earnings per share to hit between $2.80 and $3.00, lower than the $3.05 analysts polled by FactSet are currently penciling in.
The pharmaceutical giant also said it expects revenue in 2026 to reach between $59.5 billion and $62.5 billion. The midpoint of $61 billion is also below the $61.5 billion analysts are expecting. With one quarter left for the year, sales for its current fiscal year (2025) are expected to come in just north of $62 billion. At its midpoint, the guidance implies a ~2% drop in revenue next year.
Bloomberg Intelligence analysts argued that this lukewarm guidance actually looks fine if you strip out one line item: Covid-related sales. The company said it expects to sell $5 billion in Covid-related products in 2026, compared to its $6.5 billion estimate for this year.
“Pfizer’s initial 2026 sales guidance (on an ex-Covid products basis) is 2% ahead of consensus, suggesting reported sales growth of about 3% at the midpoint, yet Covid-product sales of roughly $5 billion vs. consensus’ $6.7 billion, represents a $1.5 billion setback vs. 2025,” wrote senior pharma analysts John Murphy and Michael Shah. “The latter has a direct negative readthrough for partner BioNTech and for Moderna.”
The outlook comes as Pfizer continues to rebuild out its treatment pipeline. The company has several new products, some acquired through acquisitions, coming in 2029 and 2030. In a recent interview with Sherwood News, Pfizer CFO Dave Denton said 2025 “was a watershed moment where we set our pathway forward.”
The pharmaceutical giant also said it expects revenue in 2026 to reach between $59.5 billion and $62.5 billion. The midpoint of $61 billion is also below the $61.5 billion analysts are expecting. With one quarter left for the year, sales for its current fiscal year (2025) are expected to come in just north of $62 billion. At its midpoint, the guidance implies a ~2% drop in revenue next year.
Bloomberg Intelligence analysts argued that this lukewarm guidance actually looks fine if you strip out one line item: Covid-related sales. The company said it expects to sell $5 billion in Covid-related products in 2026, compared to its $6.5 billion estimate for this year.
“Pfizer’s initial 2026 sales guidance (on an ex-Covid products basis) is 2% ahead of consensus, suggesting reported sales growth of about 3% at the midpoint, yet Covid-product sales of roughly $5 billion vs. consensus’ $6.7 billion, represents a $1.5 billion setback vs. 2025,” wrote senior pharma analysts John Murphy and Michael Shah. “The latter has a direct negative readthrough for partner BioNTech and for Moderna.”
The outlook comes as Pfizer continues to rebuild out its treatment pipeline. The company has several new products, some acquired through acquisitions, coming in 2029 and 2030. In a recent interview with Sherwood News, Pfizer CFO Dave Denton said 2025 “was a watershed moment where we set our pathway forward.”
