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J. Edward Moreno4h

Pfizer falls after 2026 guidance falls short of analysts’ expectations

Pfizer is lower in early trading after reaffirming its 2025 guidance and giving analysts a fresh steer on 2026.

The company said it expects 2026 annual adjusted earnings per share to hit between $2.80 and $3.00, lower than the $3.05 analysts polled by FactSet are currently penciling in.

The pharmaceutical giant also said it expects revenue in 2026 to reach between $59.5 billion and $62.5 billion. The midpoint of $61 billion is also below the $61.5 billion analysts are expecting. With one quarter left for the year, sales for its current fiscal year (2025) are expected to come in just north of $62 billion. At its midpoint, the guidance implies a ~2% drop in revenue next year.

Bloomberg Intelligence analysts argued that this lukewarm guidance actually looks fine if you strip out one line item: Covid-related sales. The company said it expects to sell $5 billion in Covid-related products in 2026, compared to its $6.5 billion estimate for this year.

“Pfizer’s initial 2026 sales guidance (on an ex-Covid products basis) is 2% ahead of consensus, suggesting reported sales growth of about 3% at the midpoint, yet Covid-product sales of roughly $5 billion vs. consensus’ $6.7 billion, represents a $1.5 billion setback vs. 2025,” wrote senior pharma analysts John Murphy and Michael Shah. “The latter has a direct negative readthrough for partner BioNTech and for Moderna.”

The outlook comes as Pfizer continues to rebuild out its treatment pipeline. The company has several new products, some acquired through acquisitions, coming in 2029 and 2030. In a recent interview with Sherwood News, Pfizer CFO Dave Denton said 2025 “was a watershed moment where we set our pathway forward.”

Pfizer’s CFO on building a post-Covid future and how it won the fight for Metsera

Pfizer’s CFO on building a post-Covid future and how it won the fight for Metsera

The pharmaceutical giant also said it expects revenue in 2026 to reach between $59.5 billion and $62.5 billion. The midpoint of $61 billion is also below the $61.5 billion analysts are expecting. With one quarter left for the year, sales for its current fiscal year (2025) are expected to come in just north of $62 billion. At its midpoint, the guidance implies a ~2% drop in revenue next year.

Bloomberg Intelligence analysts argued that this lukewarm guidance actually looks fine if you strip out one line item: Covid-related sales. The company said it expects to sell $5 billion in Covid-related products in 2026, compared to its $6.5 billion estimate for this year.

“Pfizer’s initial 2026 sales guidance (on an ex-Covid products basis) is 2% ahead of consensus, suggesting reported sales growth of about 3% at the midpoint, yet Covid-product sales of roughly $5 billion vs. consensus’ $6.7 billion, represents a $1.5 billion setback vs. 2025,” wrote senior pharma analysts John Murphy and Michael Shah. “The latter has a direct negative readthrough for partner BioNTech and for Moderna.”

The outlook comes as Pfizer continues to rebuild out its treatment pipeline. The company has several new products, some acquired through acquisitions, coming in 2029 and 2030. In a recent interview with Sherwood News, Pfizer CFO Dave Denton said 2025 “was a watershed moment where we set our pathway forward.”

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RadNet tumbles after Hunterbrook Media calls it “the AI story that doesn’t add up” and investment arm announces short position

In investigating the company, “what emerged was a gap between story and substance: a Digital Health business that generates much of its growth by invoicing a different RadNet business line; a same-center sales metric seemingly juiced by undisclosed consolidations; financial disclosures that don’t add up; and insiders using the stock run-up to cash out,” wrote Hunterbrook authors led by Bethany McLean.

AILIS - New Breast Cancer Prediction Technology

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Max Knoblauch29m

Frontier sinks as longtime CEO, who regularly feuded with United, suddenly departs

Shares of ultra-budget airline Frontier are down more than 10% on Tuesday morning following the carrier’s announcement that it would replace its longtime CEO, Barry Biffle. Frontier President James Dempsey will fill in as interim CEO.

Biffle, who has been Frontier’s CEO since early 2016, will remain at the airline in an “advisory capacity” until December 31. The move is “not the result of any disagreement with the Company on any matter relating to the Company’s operations, policies or practices,” per a company filing.

Under Biffle, Frontier attempted to acquire rival Spirit twice since 2022 — both unsuccessful. Last week, the carrier’s shares dropped after Spirit’s pilots ratified a lower-paying contract in an effort to keep it afloat through its latest bankruptcy.

Biffle was a staunch defender of the ultra-budget model, which has been falling out of fashion in the US market in recent years. He’s regularly feuded with United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby over comments about budget airlines.

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Matt Phillips1h

Nuclear power startup Oklo clears another regulatory hurdle

Oklo said the Department of Energy’s Idaho office approved a safety plan for its proposed nuclear fuel production plant at the Idaho National Laboratory, a center of nuclear research and testing in the US.

The zero-revenue designer of smaller nuclear power plants was the first company to receive approval under the Department of Energy’s new Fuel Line Pilot Program, established by executive order from President Trump in May. The program is designed to speed up the approval process for domestic production of nuclear fuel, helping to reduce reliance on foreign sources of raw materials needed for nuclear power. The approval is “effectively granting permission to start facility assembly,” Oklo said in a statement.

Prior to the new fuel line program, the Department of Energy didn’t typically regulate the plans for private sector production of nuclear fuel, which was left to the Nuclear Regulatory Council, an independent regulator with a mandate to protect public health and safety.

Government approvals have been an important source of credibility for Oklo, whose shares have soared this year by almost 300% despite having no profits or sales.

The stock was recently down 1.7%.

Those approvals have drawn scrutiny, however, to the close connections between the company and the Trump administration, including the fact that the current secretary of energy, Chris Wright, served on the board of Oklo until he took office in February.

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Rezolve Ai soars after management boosts 2025 annual recurring revenue guidance by 33%

It’s been a rocky stretch for the AI trade as of late — but not so bad that surprisingly strong results can’t send a smaller company levered to the theme to the moon.

Shares of Rezolve Ai are surging, up more than 20% in early trading after a boost to its 2025 guidance.

Management said that December would be a record month for sales, which are poised to exceed $17 million, and that the company is on track to exit 2025 with annual recurring revenues of $200 million. That’s 33% above its previous guidance for a year-end exit rate of $150 million issued at the start of October. The company also reaffirmed its 2026 guidance that it would exit next year with $500 million in ARR.

Rezolve Ai specializes in agentic commerce tools and boasts partnerships with Microsoft and Google.

Reading in between the lines, management also clearly thinks its stock price should be higher based on this operational performance. Per the press release:

“Rezolve Ai currently has a market capitalization of under $1 billion. While the Company does not comment on valuation, management believes that the scale of its recurring revenue base, improving operating leverage, and visibility into future growth provide investors with a clearer framework for evaluating the Company’s long-term trajectory.”

This bullishness is also present in the options market, where over 23,000 calls have traded a little more than half an hour into the session versus a 20-day average of 6,373.

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US unemployment rate rises for 4 consecutive readings, first time since 2009

A double dose of long-delayed jobs data landed this morning, with the release of nonfarm payrolls for October and November.

The unemployment rate rose by more than expected to 4.6% in November, while 64,000 jobs were added.

Economists expected nonfarm payrolls growth of 50,000 with the unemployment rate edging higher to 4.5%.

The US unemployment rate has now risen for four consecutive readings for the first time since June 2009.

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF was little changed in the aftermath of this data.

Event contracts indicated that the masses thought nonfarm payrolls growth for November would come in above 25,000 (74%) but below 100,000 (with above that level having a probability of 21%) heading into this release.

(Robinhood Markets Inc. is the parent company of Sherwood Media, an independently operated media company subject to certain legal and regulatory restrictions. Event contracts trading is offered by Robinhood Derivatives, LLC, a registered futures commission merchant with the CFTC.)

This was a messy set of data, as these reports had been long delayed in light of the government shutdown, and no unemployment rate was produced for October.

The delayed impact of federal government buyouts related to DOGE meaningfully weighed on October’s nonfarm payrolls figure, which contracted by 105,000. More than all of this was tied to a 162,000 decline in federal government jobs. Private payrolls rose by 52,000 in the 10th month of the year.

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