Markets
Alex Karp Palantir Shares Surge
Palantir CEO Alex Karp (Fabrice Coffrini/Getty Images)

Palantir up as Wall Street gushes about Q4 report

But will retail reengage with the shares?

Matt Phillips

Palantir’s Q4 numbers shook the stock out of a monthslong stupor Monday after the bell, and since then, Wall Street analysts have been churning out a series of laudatory reviews of the company’s performance.

Here’s a smattering of some of the details of the report that analysts were smitten with.

First off, growth continued to surge, with Morgan Stanley writing:

“Palantir delivered its fastest revenue growth as a public company with revenue accelerating to +70% YoY from +63%/+48% Q3/Q2 — well ahead of consensus looking for growth of +62%.”

Citigroup analysts spotlighted several measures of Palantir’s fattening profit margin. They included operating margin — a broad gauge of how profitable the company’s core business is, absent key costs like interest payments and taxes — and free cash flow margin, a more reality-based measure of how well the company has actually turned sales dollars into profits in the form of cold, hard cash. Citi analysts wrote:

“Operating margins were an impressive 57%, beating guidance by 456 bps and contributing to a rule of 40 score of 127%. OCF of $777m beat citi/consensus $593M/569M and adj FCF margin was 55% (up 9 pts sequentially).”

And the orders seem to be piling up, with the company reporting some $4.26 billion in bookings — which Palantir classifies as total contract value, or TCV — rising 138% from Q4 2024.

Much of that reflects Palantir’s progress in selling its AI software platform, AIP, to US corporations.

RBC Capital wrote:

“Bookings strength skewed toward large, multi-year AIP deals. Q4 TCV reached a record $4.26B (+138% YoY), including $1.34B of U.S. Commercial TCV (+67% YoY). The company closed 180 deals of at least $1M, including 61 above $10M. U.S. Commercial remaining deal value grew 145% YoY to $4.38B, though longer contract durations continue to inflate TCV and reduce visibility into normalized run-rate growth.”

All told, Wall Street seems more than satisfied with Palantir’s results.

But while the stock is up Tuesday, it remains to be seen if the retail crowd — a massive driver of Palantir’s more than 1,700% gain over the last three years — will be energized by the company’s bonkers operational performance.

Palantir remains down some 25% from its record high reached on November 3. Since then, a number of other high-flying retail favorites — Sandisk springs to mind — have emerged as new focuses for regular traders, perhaps claiming some of loyalty that once was reserved for Karp and co.

More Markets

See all Markets
markets

United beats Q1 earnings and revenue estimates, lowers full-year profit guidance amid surging jet fuel prices

United Airlines reported its first-quarter earnings results after the bell on Tuesday. The carrier’s shares ticked down in after-hours trading.

For Q1, United reported:

  • Adjusted earnings of $1.19 per share, compared to the Wall Street estimate of $1.08 per share compiled by FactSet.

  • $14.6 billion in revenue, compared to the $14.39 billion consensus estimate.

In the first quarter, United’s fuel expense grew 12.6% from the same period last year to $3.04 billion.

For the second quarter, United expects adjusted earnings per share of between $1 and $2, shy of Wall Street expectations of $2.08. For the full year ahead, United said it expects earnings between $7 and $11 per share, compared to its prior guidance of between $12 and $14 per share.

“Guidance assumes United’s revenue recovers 40% to 50% of the fuel price increases in the second quarter, 70% to 80% of the fuel price increases in the third quarter and 85% to 100% of the fuel price increases in the fourth quarter 2026,” read the company’s investor update.

Earlier this month, United was among the first major US airlines to hike its bag fees amid higher fuel costs. Its shares have fallen more than 15% from a February high days before the war in Iran began.

United has also made waves this month following reports that CEO Scott Kirby had floated the idea of a merger with American Airlines to President Trump. A merger between two of the big four airlines would create a true US behemoth, controlling more than a third of the American market. American Air last week said it wasn’t interested in merging with United and hadn’t held talks on the idea. On Tuesday, Trump told CNBC that he doesn’t like the idea either.

markets

Hedge funds are following retail traders into the Magnificent 7

Hedge funds are following retail traders into the stocks the masses never stopped buying.

“As we kick off earnings for megacap tech stocks, this stood out: [hedge funds] have started buying Mag7 stocks again this month though positioning remains well below the peak levels seen in early 2016,” wrote Goldman Sachs’ Cullen Morgan.

Goldman PB Mag 7
Source: Goldman Sachs

In early April, JPMorgan strategist Arun Jain noted that retail investors had basically been selling everything but the Magnificent 7 stocks as part of a more cautious stance due to the Iran war.

(Apple has been a long-standing exception to this trend, presumably because retail traders arent fond of its hands-off approach to AI.)

JPM Retail flows

Last August, Jain discussed how retail activity tended to “crowd in” institutional buyers in meme stocks, while Goldman’s John Marshall advised clients to piggyback on stocks beloved by retail traders. Speculative, retail-geared assets proceeded to go on a tremendous run that soured in October.

But there are some early indications that a similar bout of speculative fervor is bubbling up once more.

markets

POET Technologies surges above $10 for first time in 4 years amid explosion in call volumes

POET Technologies is up nearly 40% this week as options market activity goes haywire in a faint echo of what got the stock on retail traders’ radars in October.

As of 11:12 a.m. ET, more than 10 calls have changed hands for every put traded. This bullish impulse has propelled the stock above the $10 threshold for the first time since March 2022.

Shares of the optical communications firm briefly dipped last week after Wolfpack Research said it was short the company because its investors would be exposed to an “IRS tax nightmare.”

The company responded that day saying it was taking measures for US shareholders that “should mitigate certain potential adverse US federal income tax consequences to it that could otherwise result from the Company’s status as a passive foreign investment company.”

Latest Stories

Sherwood Media, LLC produces fresh and unique perspectives on topical financial news and is a fully owned subsidiary of Robinhood Markets, Inc., and any views expressed here do not necessarily reflect the views of any other Robinhood affiliate, including Robinhood Markets, Inc., Robinhood Financial LLC, Robinhood Securities, LLC, Robinhood Crypto, LLC, Robinhood Derivatives, LLC, or Robinhood Money, LLC. Futures and event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC.