UK Defence Secretary John Healey and Palantir Technologies CEO Alex Karp in September (Lucy North/Getty Images)

Palantir posts ninth straight earnings beat, boosts guidance

Here’s how the numbers look.

Defense and AI software maker Palantir Technologies reported its Q3 numbers after the close of trading on Monday, topping earnings estimates for the ninth quarter in a row.

Here’s how things shaped up for the retail trader favorite, which was the best-performing stock in the S&P 500 last year:

Adjusted earnings per share of $0.21 vs. Wall Street expectations for $0.17.
Sales of $1.18 billion vs. an expected $1.09 billion, per FactSet data.
Q3 sales grew 63% year over year vs. a 50.5% Wall Street expectation. (Palantir CEO Alex Karp described it as “an accelerating and otherworldly growth rate.”)
Palantir now sees Q4 2025 revenue in the range of $1.327 billion to $1.331 billion, vs. Wall Street expectations for $1.18 billion.
Palantir now sees full-year 2025 revenue in the range of $4.396 billion to $4.400 billion, vs. its most recent guidance of $4.14 billion to $4.15 billion and Wall Street expectations for $4.139 billion.
US commercial software sales grew 121% to hit $396.7 million.
US government software sales grew 52% to $486 million.

Shares whipsawed after-hours and were recently essentially flat.

Palantir is on track for its second straight year of remarkable market gains. The stock — which has become a favorite of retail traders — is up more than 150% so far in 2025, and that follows the 340% return it notched in 2024 that made it a darling of retail investors.

“Palantir has made it possible for retail investors to achieve rates of return previously limited to the most successful venture capitalists in Palo Alto,” Karp said in a letter accompanying the results. “And we have done so through authentic and substantive growth.”

At the same time, gains mean that even as Palantir has generated some of the fastest realized sales and profit in the S&P 500, that’s done little to fix the one persistent issue that’s been spotlighted about the stock: it has one of the most insane valuations ever seen for a company of its size.

But hey, it keeps going up.

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PAMPLONA, NAVARRA, SPAIN - 2025/07/09: Morante de la Puebla, a bullfighter from Seville fights a bull from the Alvaro Nunez ranch in Pamplona's Plaza Monumental during the 2025 San FermÌn festival

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Trump’s “impossible trinity” on AI and energy

Everyone loves a good trilemma.

In economics, the most famous of the genre was developed by Fleming and Mundell, which posits that you can only successfully achieve two of the following three objectives: the free flow of capital, a fixed exchange rate, and independent sovereign monetary policy.

George Pollack, senior US policy analyst at Signum Global Advisors, proposed a trilemma of his own to describe the Trump administration’s competing policy aims as a red-hot AI boom devours power and leaves households miffed by rising electricity bills.

He wrote:

“This note flags what we believe to be a simple reality whose salience will continue growing in US politics in coming months: the Trump administration, in its remaining three years will face a trilemma as the nation waits for its energy bet to play out — proving able to achieve two, but not all three, of the following objectives:

-Fulfill AI’s energy-appetite.
-Keep repressing renewable sources of energy.
-Appease American electricity consumers.”

As for evidence that the Trump administration is taking a fossil fuels-first approach while stunting renewables, Pollack pointed to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which shrinks access to tax credits for green energy, as well as the end to the federal pause on liquefied natural gas export permits. However, it would be “inaccurate and unfair” to blame President Trump’s policies for surging electricity prices in recent months, he added.

While the government has pursued the expansion of nuclear power as a way to solve this trilemma, the long lead times involved are incongruent with a short-term fix.

Palantir climbs toward a fresh record high ahead of earnings report

Traders and Wall Street are waiting to see whether Palantir’s latest numbers after market close today will continue to beat expectations.

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Joby’s UAE reported certification delay stokes fears that air taxis may be further off than thought, sending eVTOL stocks down

Commercial air taxi service may be on a slower path than investors previously thought.

Shares of Joby Aviation fell more than 9% on Monday morning amid a report from The National that the company’s UAE certification will be completed by the third quarter of next year. That’s a significant delay from Joby’s own projected timeline in February, when it said it planned to carry passengers in Dubai in “late 2025 or early 2026.”

Rival Archer Aviation, which also recently suffered a hit to its UAE certification timeline, fell more than 9%. Joby and Archer each are expected to report their earnings results later this week.

Also potentially causing some investor pullback is the planned IPO of Beta Technologies on Tuesday. Beta, a manufacturer of electric aircraft, received a $300 million investment from GE Aerospace in September.

Palantir posts ninth straight earnings beat, boosts guidance

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