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Palantir is once again the top stock in the S&P 500

A nearly 30% surge in Palantir shares this month has pushed the defense data and AI software company back into contention for the top of the S&P 500 — again.

The company, which was cofounded by Peter Thiel, was the top performer in the blue-chip index last year with a 340% gain. It was added to the S&P 500 in September 2024, and then exploded in price as part of the Trump stock rally that followed the November election.

This year has been much choppier, with the company up as much as 65% for the year through mid-February before losing all those gains in less than a month. The administration’s goal for deep cuts to defense spending and the federal bureaucracy seemed to spark a mini panic around the shares, as the US government is Palantir’s largest single customer.

But Palantir began to bounce as President Trump backed off on tariffs — it jumped 19% on the April 9 “pause” — and soon after announced a fresh defense deal with NATO.

Through Friday’s close, Palantir was up 49%, putting it ahead of CVS Health — which has sat atop the index for most of the year with its nearly 46% rise. And shortly before 12 p.m. ET, Palantir was still holding pole position in S&P 500, despite a slump in tech.

Palantir reports earnings on May 7 after the close of trading, and expectations are quite high, with analysts predicting sales growth of 36% year over year.

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Trump’s “impossible trinity” on AI and energy

Everyone loves a good trilemma.

In economics, the most famous of the genre was developed by Fleming and Mundell, which posits that you can only successfully achieve two of the following three objectives: the free flow of capital, a fixed exchange rate, and independent sovereign monetary policy.

George Pollack, senior US policy analyst at Signum Global Advisors, proposed a trilemma of his own to describe the Trump administration’s competing policy aims as a red-hot AI boom devours power and leaves households miffed by rising electricity bills.

He wrote:

“This note flags what we believe to be a simple reality whose salience will continue growing in US politics in coming months: the Trump administration, in its remaining three years will face a trilemma as the nation waits for its energy bet to play out — proving able to achieve two, but not all three, of the following objectives:

-Fulfill AI’s energy-appetite.
-Keep repressing renewable sources of energy.
-Appease American electricity consumers.”

Trump AI trilemma

As for evidence that the Trump administration is taking a fossil fuels-first approach while stunting renewables, Pollack pointed to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which shrinks access to tax credits for green energy, as well as the end to the federal pause on liquefied natural gas export permits. However, it would be “inaccurate and unfair” to blame President Trump’s policies for surging electricity prices in recent months, he added.

While the government has pursued the expansion of nuclear power as a way to solve this trilemma, the long lead times involved are incongruent with a short-term fix.

Palantir reports Q3 earnings results

Palantir climbs toward a fresh record high ahead of earnings report

Traders and Wall Street are waiting to see whether Palantir’s latest numbers after market close today will continue to beat expectations.

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