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Palantir reports Q3 earnings results
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Palantir climbs toward a fresh record high ahead of earnings report

Traders and Wall Street are waiting to see whether Palantir’s latest numbers after market close today will continue to beat expectations.

Data, defense, and AI software company Palantir Technologies is due to report quarterly results after the bell Monday, amid soaring expectations that are putting the stock on track to close at a new record high.

Palantir — which rose 340% in 2024 — continues to be a startling outperformer, rising more than 150% so far this year. The market gains for the stock over the last two years are now approaching 1,000%.

That gain has come as the company has trounced quarterly expectations for eight straight earnings seasons. (Today’s report would make it nine in a row.)

But that, of course, that has resulted in Wall Street setting the earnings bar still higher.

Here’s what Wall Street analysts now expect Palantir to report:

  • Q3 sales of $1.09 billion, up about 50.5%, according to FactSet data. (That would be Palantir’s fastest quarterly growth rate since Q2 2021.)

  • Adjusted earnings per share of $0.17, up ~68% from Q3 2024.

  • About $490 million in commercial sales of software, much aimed at helping private corporations better take advantage of AI — which would be a 55% rise year over year.

  • Roughly $603 million in sales to governments, up 48% compared to last year.

The question, of course, is at what point expectations about Palantir start to become detached from the reality of what the company can actually achieve, which seems almost certain to happen at some point.

But indications coming from the company — which has upped its earnings guidance over the last year — and the soaring stock price suggest few see that happening imminently.

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Trump’s “impossible trinity” on AI and energy

Everyone loves a good trilemma.

In economics, the most famous of the genre was developed by Fleming and Mundell, which posits that you can only successfully achieve two of the following three objectives: the free flow of capital, a fixed exchange rate, and independent sovereign monetary policy.

George Pollack, senior US policy analyst at Signum Global Advisors, proposed a trilemma of his own to describe the Trump administration’s competing policy aims as a red-hot AI boom devours power and leaves households miffed by rising electricity bills.

He wrote:

“This note flags what we believe to be a simple reality whose salience will continue growing in US politics in coming months: the Trump administration, in its remaining three years will face a trilemma as the nation waits for its energy bet to play out — proving able to achieve two, but not all three, of the following objectives:

-Fulfill AI’s energy-appetite.
-Keep repressing renewable sources of energy.
-Appease American electricity consumers.”

Trump AI trilemma

As for evidence that the Trump administration is taking a fossil fuels-first approach while stunting renewables, Pollack pointed to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which shrinks access to tax credits for green energy, as well as the end to the federal pause on liquefied natural gas export permits. However, it would be “inaccurate and unfair” to blame President Trump’s policies for surging electricity prices in recent months, he added.

While the government has pursued the expansion of nuclear power as a way to solve this trilemma, the long lead times involved are incongruent with a short-term fix.

Joby’s UAE reported certification delay stokes fears that air taxis may be further off than thought, sending eVTOL stocks down

Commercial air taxi service may be on a slower path than investors previously thought.

Shares of Joby Aviation fell more than 9% on Monday morning amid a report from The National that the company’s UAE certification will be completed by the third quarter of next year. That’s a significant delay from Joby’s own projected timeline in February, when it said it planned to carry passengers in Dubai in “late 2025 or early 2026.”

Rival Archer Aviation, which also recently suffered a hit to its UAE certification timeline, fell more than 9%. Joby and Archer each are expected to report their earnings results later this week.

Also potentially causing some investor pullback is the planned IPO of Beta Technologies on Tuesday. Beta, a manufacturer of electric aircraft, received a $300 million investment from GE Aerospace in September.

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