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Opendoor rises as JPMorgan boosts earnings estimates following Q4 results

New CEO Kaz Nejatian said the cohort of homes purchased in October, his first full month running the company, is poised to be Opendoor’s most profitable October ever.

Luke Kawa

Opendoor Technologies is surging after its Q4 results showed the new management team’s plans to turn around the online real real estate company are bearing fruit.

Shares are up roughly 16% as of 9 a.m. ET after the company reported better-than-expected Q4 sales and adjusted EBITDA, along with guidance for a bottom-line loss in Q1 that included less red ink than Wall Street had feared.

While its Q1 revenue outlook disappointed, CFO Christy Schwartz attributed the anticipated 10% quarter-on-quarter decline to how aggressively older inventory had been cleared in Q4, with homes sold having surprised to the upside by 20%. As such, the company will use Q1 to “rebuild inventory with higher-quality homes that underpin our improved unit economics,” she said.

Early in the conference call, CEO Kaz Nejatian spotlighted the profitability of Opendoor’s October operations, which marked the first full month with him in charge of the company.

That month of home acquisitions, he said, “is on track to be the most profitable October cohort in company history,” based on its contribution margin, which is the how much Opendoor earns on the sale of homes following holding costs and selling costs as a share of revenue.

“We achieved this in the middle of the most aggressive market expansion in Opendoor’s history. Given that this isn’t really the strongest housing market, this performance I think shows a structural shift in how we operate, a shift that I genuinely think will be durable across macro cycles,” he said. “We are no longer a prop desk — we’re now a market maker.”

JPMorgan analyst Dae Lee kept an “overweight” rating and $8 price target on the stock in the wake of these results, while boosting adjusted EBITDA and earnings estimates for this year and the next. Lee also trimmed his top-line expectations for 2026 and 2027.

“We remain encouraged by leadership’s energy and believe OPEN’s transformation, product innovation, and speed will drive upside over time,” he wrote. “Near-term results reflect prior strategies, but reduced spreads and a tailored approach are already accelerating acquisitions and rebuilding volume.”

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Vertiv drops after offering uninspiring Q2 guidance, overshadowing solid Q1 beat

Shares of Vertiv Holdings dropped as much as ~6% in early trading on Wednesday after the data center equipment’s better-than-expected Q1 numbers were overshadowed by uninspiring guidance.

For the quarter ended, March 31, 2026, Vertiv reported:  

  • Q1 adjusted earnings per share of $1.17 vs. the $1.00 consensus expectation from analysts surveyed by FactSet.

  • Sales of $2.65 billion vs. the $2.64 billion expectation (compiled by FactSet).

  • For Q2, Vertiv expects adjusted earnings of between $1.37 and $1.43, coming in below the $1.43 consensus estimate at its midpoint.

  • Q2 guidance for Vertiv net sales of $3.25 billion to $3.45 billion also vs. Wall Street’s call for $3.40 billion.

Vertiv, which listed in February 2020 as a result of GS Acquisition Holdings Corp., a so-called blank-check company, merging with private equity-owned Vertiv Holdings, has soared over 300% over the last year through Tuesday’s close, as investors have rushed to snap up shares of companies poised to collect some of the hundreds of billions of dollars in spending that the hyperscalers are pouring into the data center build-out. 

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Adobe rises on $25 billion stock buyback

Adobe was up as much as 3.5% in early trading on Wednesday after the company announced a share repurchase plan worth up to $25 billion, signaling to investors that company management sees retiring shares as a prudent use of capital at these levels. The stock has been down more than 60% since Feb 2024, largely on concerns that AI tools will disrupt the company’s business.

The new authorization, which Adobe detailed will extend through April 30, 2030, “is a direct expression of confidence in our robust cash flow and the long-term value we are delivering to investors,” said CFO Dan Durn in a press release.

Indeed, fears that new agentic models could affect demand compounded when Anthropic unveiled Claude Design last week, sending the company’s shares down on the announcement. Adobe released a series of AI-enabled customer service functions shortly after. Rival Figma, which Adobe was set to acquire before the deal was blocked by regulators, has also been under pressure.

Adobe is also not the only spooked software company proposing new buyback plans to bring investors back, joining Salesforce, which actually issued debt to buy back shares in a programme of the same size ($25 billion).

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United beats Q1 earnings and revenue estimates, lowers full-year profit guidance amid surging jet fuel prices

United Airlines reported its first-quarter earnings results after the bell on Tuesday. The carrier’s shares ticked down in after-hours trading.

For Q1, United reported:

  • Adjusted earnings of $1.19 per share, compared to the Wall Street estimate of $1.08 per share compiled by FactSet.

  • $14.6 billion in revenue, compared to the $14.39 billion consensus estimate.

In the first quarter, United’s fuel expense grew 12.6% from the same period last year to $3.04 billion.

For the second quarter, United expects adjusted earnings per share of between $1 and $2, shy of Wall Street expectations of $2.08. For the full year ahead, United said it expects earnings between $7 and $11 per share, compared to its prior guidance of between $12 and $14 per share.

“Guidance assumes United’s revenue recovers 40% to 50% of the fuel price increases in the second quarter, 70% to 80% of the fuel price increases in the third quarter and 85% to 100% of the fuel price increases in the fourth quarter 2026,” read the company’s investor update.

Earlier this month, United was among the first major US airlines to hike its bag fees amid higher fuel costs. Its shares have fallen more than 15% from a February high days before the war in Iran began.

United has also made waves this month following reports that CEO Scott Kirby had floated the idea of a merger with American Airlines to President Trump. A merger between two of the big four airlines would create a true US behemoth, controlling more than a third of the American market. American Air last week said it wasn’t interested in merging with United and hadn’t held talks on the idea. On Tuesday, Trump told CNBC that he doesn’t like the idea either.

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Hedge funds are following retail traders into the Magnificent 7

Hedge funds are following retail traders into the stocks the masses never stopped buying.

“As we kick off earnings for megacap tech stocks, this stood out: [hedge funds] have started buying Mag7 stocks again this month though positioning remains well below the peak levels seen in early 2016,” wrote Goldman Sachs’ Cullen Morgan.

Goldman PB Mag 7
Source: Goldman Sachs

In early April, JPMorgan strategist Arun Jain noted that retail investors had basically been selling everything but the Magnificent 7 stocks as part of a more cautious stance due to the Iran war.

(Apple has been a long-standing exception to this trend, presumably because retail traders arent fond of its hands-off approach to AI.)

JPM Retail flows

Last August, Jain discussed how retail activity tended to “crowd in” institutional buyers in meme stocks, while Goldman’s John Marshall advised clients to piggyback on stocks beloved by retail traders. Speculative, retail-geared assets proceeded to go on a tremendous run that soured in October.

But there are some early indications that a similar bout of speculative fervor is bubbling up once more.

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