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OpenAI burning
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OpenAI’s planned cash burn was unlike anything we’d ever seen — now they’re doubling it

OpenAI is still the molten mass at the center of the AI universe, burning billions as it pulls talent, capital, and companies into its orbit.

David Crowther

Many of the world’s most successful tech startups burned cash for years before they got out of the red. Lighting tens of millions of dollars — or even a few billion in the most extreme cases, like Uber, Tesla, or Netflix — on fire every year became the norm as growth-obsessed disruptors invested in software, hardware, branding, and content to reach the scale required for their margins to turn positive.

But, as we noted last year, the sheer scale of OpenAI’s cash burn plans have been unlike anything we’ve ever seen. And thanks to some great new reporting from The Information late last week, we know that the company’s cash burn forecasts are actually even more insane than we previously thought.

Per the new figures reported, OpenAI expects to burn through $218 billion between 2026 and 2029, about $111 billion more than the company’s internal projections from just two quarters ago.

OpenAI cash burn
Sherwood News

That $218 billion is 23x what Tesla burned in its cash-incinerating phase from 2007 to 2018.

In fairness to OpenAI, ChatGPT is probably still the fastest-growing stand-alone product of all time, and if the company hits its revenue goal, it certainly won’t be the cash burn of previous years that has people talking.

Indeed, after chewing through the equivalent of the GDP of Ukraine, the company expects cash flow to turn dramatically positive in 2030 as revenue soars to ~$280 billion in 2030 thanks to consumer ChatGPT subscriptions as well as a plethora of new revenue streams, including API access, dedicated agentic enterprise subscriptions, advertising, and even AI-powered hardware (including maybe a smart speaker and a smart lamp).

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Lululemon’s stretch getting tested: Stock plunges after after outlook is cut

Lululemon shares are down double digits in premarket trading after the company cut its full-year sales and profit outlook, overshadowing a Q1 beat and raising fresh concerns about the brand’s turnaround efforts.

The company now expects fiscal 2026 revenue to be flat to down 1%, compared with its prior forecast for 2% to 4% growth. Guidance for full-year diluted earnings per share was dragged down to a range of $10.95 to $11.15, below the company’s previous guidance of $12.10 to $12.30 and well below Wall Street’s estimate of $13.26.

Key numbers for Q1:

  • EPS of $1.69 vs. the $1.68 expected.

  • Revenue of $2.47 billion vs. the $2.43 billion expected.

The modest top-line beat masked a widening divergence between Lululemons geographic markets. While international revenue rose 22% overall with a 30% increase in Mainland China, the bigger problem remains North America, where revenue fell 5%.

Interim co-CEO and CFO Meghan Frank acknowledged during the earnings call that recent product rollouts underperformed. A highly anticipated yoga campaign failed to generate its expected halo effect across broader product lines.

Profitability metrics took a major hit, with gross margins contracting by 410 basis points to 54.2% due to mounting tariff costs and promotional markdowns. Operating income consequently fell 37% year over year to $276.9 million.

“We experienced spikes of negative commentary in the media and on social channels with regard to our brand, which had an impact on traffic and overall top-line performance,” Frank said during the earnings call. “And second, not all of our product launches have met our expectations. While we have had several successful launches so far this year, we have seen others as we start Q2 not generate the anticipated guest response.”

Lululemons valuation has already been steadily compressing for years. While it was once one of retails richly valued stocks, investors have been questioning whether the company can return to the double-digit growth era.

The results also arrive during a leadership transition. Lululemon announced back in April that former Nike executive Heidi ONeill is set to take over as CEO in September, with investors looking to her to revive growth in North America and restore the brands growth.

As Lululemon faces both macroeconomic pressure and brand-specific challenges, its stock has dropped around 40% year to date.

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US job growth skyrocketed in May, blasting past expectations

The US economy added 172,000 jobs in the month of May, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday, sending 10-year Treasury yields higher.

The strong May job market surprised economists. Experts had predicted only 85,000 new jobs — just half the reported number. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, as expected.

The job growth story is a hopeful spot for the economy as consumers continue to feel inflationary pressure from the Iran war.

Job gains were buoyed by the leisure and hospitality sector, which added 70,000 jobs, as well as local government, healthcare, and education.

Both the March and April jobs reports were revised upward, making them collectively 93,000 higher than previously reported.

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