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Oil and defense stocks gain after President Trump says the US plans to “run” Venezuela after Saturday’s military operation

Oil and defense stocks rose in premarket trading Monday as markets reacted to the US military’s Saturday operation in Venezuela, which resulted in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro.

The rally in energy shares followed weekend statements from President Trump, who said the US will temporarily “run” Venezuela throughout the transition and that US oil companies are prepared to spend billions of dollars rebuilding the countrys oil infrastructure. Indeed, Venezuelas oil sector has been crippled by years of underinvestment, US sanctions, and mismanagement, despite the country holding the worlds largest proven oil reserves — estimated at ~19% of global reserves or 303 billion barrels as of 2024, according to OPECs annual statistical bulletin.

Those seen as potential beneficiaries — and among the key movers as of Monday morning — include major names such as Chevron, the only US oil producer still operating in Venezuela, as well as Exxon and ConocoPhillips. Oil field service firms like Halliburton and Schlumberger are also up more than 4.5%, as investors wager their services could potentially be central to repairing the countrys production facilities. Refineries like Valero, Phillips 66, and Marathon Petroleum gained as well, as their US Gulf Coast facilities are designed to process heavy, high-sulfur Venezuelan crude.

The jump in oil equities comes despite little change in crude prices — in fact, both Brent and US West Texas Intermediate are down about 0.4% this morning, as global supply remains ample relative to demand, and OPEC+ said yesterday it would keep its current production policy unchanged.

Retail traders are also looking for ways to profit from any oil-related volatility, with commodity tickers the top three most discussed on Reddit’s r/WallStreetBets forum, per data from SwaggyStocks.

Global defense stocks are trading higher as well as investors price in heightened geopolitical risk, with Lockheed Martin and German manufacturer Rheinmetall AG both up nearly 3%, while defense contractors also jumped across Japan and South Korea. Palantir, which has a number of US defense contracts and recently announced a $448 million deal with the US Navy, is also making gains, up more than 4% as of 6:25 a.m. ET.

International reaction has poured in, the most notable of which came from China — the top destination for Venezuela’s crude oil exports, per CNBC — with officials in Beijing calling on the US to release Maduro and his wife “at once.”

Delcy Rodríguez is set to be sworn in as Venezuela’s new leader this morning.

The jump in oil equities comes despite little change in crude prices — in fact, both Brent and US West Texas Intermediate are down about 0.4% this morning, as global supply remains ample relative to demand, and OPEC+ said yesterday it would keep its current production policy unchanged.

Retail traders are also looking for ways to profit from any oil-related volatility, with commodity tickers the top three most discussed on Reddit’s r/WallStreetBets forum, per data from SwaggyStocks.

Global defense stocks are trading higher as well as investors price in heightened geopolitical risk, with Lockheed Martin and German manufacturer Rheinmetall AG both up nearly 3%, while defense contractors also jumped across Japan and South Korea. Palantir, which has a number of US defense contracts and recently announced a $448 million deal with the US Navy, is also making gains, up more than 4% as of 6:25 a.m. ET.

International reaction has poured in, the most notable of which came from China — the top destination for Venezuela’s crude oil exports, per CNBC — with officials in Beijing calling on the US to release Maduro and his wife “at once.”

Delcy Rodríguez is set to be sworn in as Venezuela’s new leader this morning.

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United beats Q1 earnings and revenue estimates, lowers full-year profit guidance amid surging jet fuel prices

United Airlines reported its first-quarter earnings results after the bell on Tuesday. The carrier’s shares ticked down in after-hours trading.

For Q1, United reported:

  • Adjusted earnings of $1.19 per share, compared to the Wall Street estimate of $1.08 per share compiled by FactSet.

  • $14.6 billion in revenue, compared to the $14.39 billion consensus estimate.

In the first quarter, United’s fuel expense grew 12.6% from the same period last year to $3.04 billion.

For the second quarter, United expects adjusted earnings per share of between $1 and $2, shy of Wall Street expectations of $2.08. For the full year ahead, United said it expects earnings between $7 and $11 per share, compared to its prior guidance of between $12 and $14 per share.

“Guidance assumes United’s revenue recovers 40% to 50% of the fuel price increases in the second quarter, 70% to 80% of the fuel price increases in the third quarter and 85% to 100% of the fuel price increases in the fourth quarter 2026,” read the company’s investor update.

Earlier this month, United was among the first major US airlines to hike its bag fees amid higher fuel costs. Its shares have fallen more than 15% from a February high days before the war in Iran began.

United has also made waves this month following reports that CEO Scott Kirby had floated the idea of a merger with American Airlines to President Trump. A merger between two of the big four airlines would create a true US behemoth, controlling more than a third of the American market. American Air last week said it wasn’t interested in merging with United and hadn’t held talks on the idea. On Tuesday, Trump told CNBC that he doesn’t like the idea either.

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Hedge funds are following retail traders into the Magnificent 7

Hedge funds are following retail traders into the stocks the masses never stopped buying.

“As we kick off earnings for megacap tech stocks, this stood out: [hedge funds] have started buying Mag7 stocks again this month though positioning remains well below the peak levels seen in early 2016,” wrote Goldman Sachs’ Cullen Morgan.

Goldman PB Mag 7
Source: Goldman Sachs

In early April, JPMorgan strategist Arun Jain noted that retail investors had basically been selling everything but the Magnificent 7 stocks as part of a more cautious stance due to the Iran war.

(Apple has been a long-standing exception to this trend, presumably because retail traders arent fond of its hands-off approach to AI.)

JPM Retail flows

Last August, Jain discussed how retail activity tended to “crowd in” institutional buyers in meme stocks, while Goldman’s John Marshall advised clients to piggyback on stocks beloved by retail traders. Speculative, retail-geared assets proceeded to go on a tremendous run that soured in October.

But there are some early indications that a similar bout of speculative fervor is bubbling up once more.

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POET Technologies surges above $10 for first time in 4 years amid explosion in call volumes

POET Technologies is up nearly 40% this week as options market activity goes haywire in a faint echo of what got the stock on retail traders’ radars in October.

As of 11:12 a.m. ET, more than 10 calls have changed hands for every put traded. This bullish impulse has propelled the stock above the $10 threshold for the first time since March 2022.

Shares of the optical communications firm briefly dipped last week after Wolfpack Research said it was short the company because its investors would be exposed to an “IRS tax nightmare.”

The company responded that day saying it was taking measures for US shareholders that “should mitigate certain potential adverse US federal income tax consequences to it that could otherwise result from the Company’s status as a passive foreign investment company.”

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