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Oil and defense stocks gain after President Trump says the US plans to “run” Venezuela after Saturday’s military operation

Oil and defense stocks rose in premarket trading Monday as markets reacted to the US military’s Saturday operation in Venezuela, which resulted in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro.

The rally in energy shares followed weekend statements from President Trump, who said the US will temporarily “run” Venezuela throughout the transition and that US oil companies are prepared to spend billions of dollars rebuilding the countrys oil infrastructure. Indeed, Venezuelas oil sector has been crippled by years of underinvestment, US sanctions, and mismanagement, despite the country holding the worlds largest proven oil reserves — estimated at ~19% of global reserves or 303 billion barrels as of 2024, according to OPECs annual statistical bulletin.

Those seen as potential beneficiaries — and among the key movers as of Monday morning — include major names such as Chevron, the only US oil producer still operating in Venezuela, as well as Exxon and ConocoPhillips. Oil field service firms like Halliburton and Schlumberger are also up more than 4.5%, as investors wager their services could potentially be central to repairing the countrys production facilities. Refineries like Valero, Phillips 66, and Marathon Petroleum gained as well, as their US Gulf Coast facilities are designed to process heavy, high-sulfur Venezuelan crude.

The jump in oil equities comes despite little change in crude prices — in fact, both Brent and US West Texas Intermediate are down about 0.4% this morning, as global supply remains ample relative to demand, and OPEC+ said yesterday it would keep its current production policy unchanged.

Retail traders are also looking for ways to profit from any oil-related volatility, with commodity tickers the top three most discussed on Reddit’s r/WallStreetBets forum, per data from SwaggyStocks.

Global defense stocks are trading higher as well as investors price in heightened geopolitical risk, with Lockheed Martin and German manufacturer Rheinmetall AG both up nearly 3%, while defense contractors also jumped across Japan and South Korea. Palantir, which has a number of US defense contracts and recently announced a $448 million deal with the US Navy, is also making gains, up more than 4% as of 6:25 a.m. ET.

International reaction has poured in, the most notable of which came from China — the top destination for Venezuela’s crude oil exports, per CNBC — with officials in Beijing calling on the US to release Maduro and his wife “at once.”

Delcy Rodríguez is set to be sworn in as Venezuela’s new leader this morning.

The jump in oil equities comes despite little change in crude prices — in fact, both Brent and US West Texas Intermediate are down about 0.4% this morning, as global supply remains ample relative to demand, and OPEC+ said yesterday it would keep its current production policy unchanged.

Retail traders are also looking for ways to profit from any oil-related volatility, with commodity tickers the top three most discussed on Reddit’s r/WallStreetBets forum, per data from SwaggyStocks.

Global defense stocks are trading higher as well as investors price in heightened geopolitical risk, with Lockheed Martin and German manufacturer Rheinmetall AG both up nearly 3%, while defense contractors also jumped across Japan and South Korea. Palantir, which has a number of US defense contracts and recently announced a $448 million deal with the US Navy, is also making gains, up more than 4% as of 6:25 a.m. ET.

International reaction has poured in, the most notable of which came from China — the top destination for Venezuela’s crude oil exports, per CNBC — with officials in Beijing calling on the US to release Maduro and his wife “at once.”

Delcy Rodríguez is set to be sworn in as Venezuela’s new leader this morning.

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Report: Boeing could unveil 500-jet order from China during Trump’s visit later this month

Shares of Boeing are up nearly 4% on Friday afternoon, following a Bloomberg report that the company could be close to finalizing a deal to sell 500 planes to China.

The deal was first reported in August and would be one of Boeing’s largest ever.

According to Bloomberg’s sources, the deal could be officially unveiled when President Trump travels to China at the end of the month. That trip could be delayed given the war in Iran. The deal, sources say, could still fall apart — similar language to when it was first reported on more than six months ago.

Boeing has been on the outside of the Chinese market, in terms of new orders, since 2019 amid escalating US-China trade tensions.

According to Bloomberg’s sources, the deal could be officially unveiled when President Trump travels to China at the end of the month. That trip could be delayed given the war in Iran. The deal, sources say, could still fall apart — similar language to when it was first reported on more than six months ago.

Boeing has been on the outside of the Chinese market, in terms of new orders, since 2019 amid escalating US-China trade tensions.

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Why software shares are withstanding the war jitters

The outbreak of the war in Iran has clearly rattled investors and created a few clear winners — mostly energy stocks — and losers — consumer staples, airlines, and, well, more or else everything else.

But there is one interesting outlier to that Manichaean market dynamic.

Software shares — often the same companies that the market was giving up for dead just a few weeks ago due to overexpectations of an AI-driven disruption — have been holding up remarkably well.

These companies, including Intuit, ServiceNow, Datadog, Snowflake, IBM, Workday, and Oracle, have actually had a pretty decent run since the war started with a combined US-Israeli attack on Iran last weekend.

A new note from RBC Capital’s Rishi Jaluria suggests this isn’t just a fluke. Looking at the performance of software stocks during periods of geopolitical stress and market volatility over the last 10 and 25 years, his team found that software shares appear fairly well insulated when these broader shocks hit. RBC wrote:

“The defensive nature of SaaS models and the mission-critical nature of many core software systems at the enterprise level (e.g., in the absence of mass layoffs that may create seat-based headwinds, geopolitical uncertainty and/or market volatility typically will not cause an enterprise CIO to consider ripping out their ERP, CRM, Cyber systems, etc.”

I briefly got Jaluria on the phone yesterday, and he explained a bit more about why he thinks investors might see software as a decent place to hide out from the current chaos.

“With everything in the Middle East, you have to think about not just oil and gas input prices but also supply chains,” he said. “With software, you’re not really thinking about that.”

In other words, there is no equivalent of a closure of the Strait of Hormuz that software investors have to worry about.

Others suggested that the near-term profitability of these giant software companies — aside from concerns about potential long-term disruption from AI — may look different in the face of the economic uncertainty that seems to be growing with the war, especially after a sell-off that has left them relatively attractively valued.

Mark Moerdler, who covers software stocks for Bernstein Research, says that while the AI worries are clearly real, software companies continue to be highly productive cash cows.

“Everyone is afraid that AI is a massive disruptor, and all these articles you read talk about AI as massive disruptor or the world is ending or whatever,” he said. “You don’t see it in the fundamental numbers of the companies I cover. They are delivering GAAP profits, free cash flow, and they’re good investment ideas.”

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