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Megacaps have dragged markets into the red this year, but a majority of the S&P 500 is still in the green

52% of the S&P 500 has made gains in 2025. So far.

3/5/25 8:30AM

Markets have turned red this week, with America’s flagship index, the SPDR S&P 500 Trust, shedding the last of its postelection gains as traders rushed to the exits on “Tariff Tuesday,” compounding Monday’s 1.8% fall.

As companies and investors continue to digest President Donald Trump’s trade policy and the retaliatory measures it has inspired, investors are simultaneously reevaluating the AI trade on the fly. Yesterday afternoon’s price action suggested they aren’t giving up on it just yet.

Middle market

As we take stock on Wednesday morning, it’s worth zooming out and noting that 264 of the S&P 500’s constituents, or a little over 52% of the index, are actually still up in 2025. Indeed, if you woke up this morning after being asleep since New Year’s Eve, you’d have a hard time guessing that we’ve already had the “DeepSeek freak,” uncertainty over rising geopolitical tensions, and tariffs hitting the headlines this year, with the median S&P 500 stock up 0.7% in 2025.

The star of the S&P 500 Class of Q1 so far is CVS Health, which has jumped 45% since the start of the year, closely followed by Philip Morris International and Super Micro, which is doing the absolute bare minimum to remain on the market. Uber also joins the all-star lineup, ahead of Meta, which is the best of the Big Tech stocks, evading the pain of peers Amazon (-7%), Nvidia (-14%), and Tesla (-33%), which are all down. But the one company that’s down deepest in the trenches is UGG and Hoka shoe company Deckers, which never recovered from getting stomped after its underwhelming Q3 update.

So, not everything is down this year... but if you are nervous about a sustained market drop, it might be helpful to know which stocks are most, and least, sensitive to a market crash. Here’s a handy list of each, based on the last three years of data.

Luke Kawa46m

POET Technologies tumbles after announcing $150 million direct share offering

POET Technologies is tumbling in early trading Thursday after the optical communications company announced that it’s raising $150 million through the sale of about 20.7 million shares in a registered direct offering.

It’s an opportunity for management to cash in on the stock’s more than 30% rally year to date (as of Wednesday’s close).

“With a substantial base of cash, we plan to accelerate our pursuit of targeted acquisitions, add to our capabilities and talent base, vertically integrate our products with differentiated components, and expand operations to pursue revenue opportunities across the board, in order to bring long-term value to shareholders,” Executive Chairman and CEO Dr. Suresh Venkatesan said.

POET’s last offering came in late October, after which shares nearly halved in less than a month amid a broad drawdown in speculative, volatile stocks beloved by retail traders.

Luke Kawa2h

Oracle gains amid report that the TikTok deal is poised to close this week

Oracle is gaining in premarket trading as Semafor reports that China and the US have signed off on the sale of TikTok’s US operations to a consortium in which the software giant is one of the three leading investors.

The transaction is poised to close this week, per the report, citing people familiar with the situation.

In mid-December, Oracle booked a huge gain after the CEO of TikTok owner ByteDance indicated that he’d signed contracts with Oracle and the other major investors leading this consortium, private equity firm Silver Lake and Abu Dhabi-backed tech investment company MGX.

If, as previous reporting suggested, the transaction values TikTok’s US operations at about $14 billion, that would mark a fairly low price tag for a lot of eyeballs and ad dollars. This pact will also afford Oracle’s cloud business an opportunity to deepen its preexisting relationship with TikTok.

J. Edward Moreno2h

Abbott slumps after reporting sales miss, disappointing Q1 guidance

Abbott Laboratories fell in premarket trading after it reported fourth-quarter sales that missed Wall Street estimates and gave disappointing guidance for the current quarter.

The company said it expects to report first-quarter adjusted earnings per share of between $1.12 and $1.18, below the $1.20 analysts polled by FactSet were expecting. For the full year, it expects to report adjusted earnings per share of $5.55 to $5.80, in line with the $5.67 the Street is penciling in.

Abbott also reported $11.5 billion in sales for the fourth quarter, less than the analyst consensus of $11.8 billion. The sales miss was driven by lower-than-expected sales of its medical devices, its largest segment. Its profits for the quarter hit $1.50 per share, right in line with expectations.

The stock fell more than 5% in premarket trading on Thursday.

GE Aerospace posts better-than-expected Q4 results and surprisingly strong full-year profit guidance

GE Aerospace had a strong 2025, rising roughly 85% to outpace both the S&P 500 and industry benchmarks.

Matt Phillips3h

Hyunsoo Rim3h

Goldman hikes year-end gold price forecast to $5,400 per ounce as private investors and central banks compete for the shiny stuff

Goldman Sachs has raised its December 2026 gold price forecast to $5,400 per ounce, up from the previous $4,900 target, citing strong demand from private sector investors using gold as a hedge against global policy risks, according to a note released late Tuesday.

The revised price target reflects a 17% increase from January’s month-to-date average price, with continued central bank buying as the biggest driver of the forecast (accounting for 14 percentage points of the expected appreciation), while ETF inflows add another 3 pp — supported by an assumed Fed rate cut this year.

Central banks have been on a gold-buying spree since 2022, after the freezing of Russia’s foreign reserves, helping push prices up 15% in 2023 and 26% in 2024. But Goldman analysts noted that the rally accelerated in 2025 as competition between central banks and private investors for the limited bullion intensified — driving prices up another 67% last year, with recent tensions over Greenland only adding to the momentum.

That private sector demand now extends well beyond ETF inflows. Goldman said buying is increasingly coming from a new class of investors seeking protection against macro policy risk and currency “debasement,” including purchases from high-net-worth families and call option buying — flows that are “hard to track” but have become a “significant incremental source of demand.”

Goldman assumed these macro-related “sticky” hedges will persist through 2026 — unlike those tied to the 2024 US election, which unwound quickly once the outcome was clear.