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Oracle Credit Default Swaps
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Markets are getting more concerned about Oracle’s AI data center debt

The price of insuring against Oracle defaulting on its growing debt load has spike massively since September.

After a respite Monday, AI bears are back in control Tuesday.

Bellwethers like Advanced Micro Devices and Nvidia are getting battered on reports of a brewing collaboration between Alphabet and Meta on chips. And that partnership’s potential threat to OpenAI and some of those who’ve inked deals with the AI startup giant — as investors, customers, suppliers, and sometimes all three! — is causing some jitters out there.

Meanwhile, concerns about all that borrowing that companies have planned or done to finance the giant AI data center build-out boom that’s currently underway continue burbling away in the bond markets. As we’ve mentioned, the price of insuring against a debt default by Oracle has become a closely watched expression of worries about the AI boom.

While some of those concerns seemed to relent earlier today, resulting in a slight reduction in prices for this bond insurance — known as credit default swaps — on Oracle debt, it’s worth pointing out that the concerns also seem to have spread a bit even to companies that have far sturdier financials than Oracle.

And despite today’s dip, the cost to protect against an Oracle default has surged massively in recent weeks.

For instance, according to FactSet data, Microsoft and Meta have also seen prices of insuring against their own default creep higher recently, along with Amazon.

To be clear, the price for insuring Oracle debt is a lot higher than for these other hyperscalers — likely a reflection of the massive amounts of cash the market expects Oracle to burn for the foreseeable future. Furthermore, it shouldn’t be surprising to see markets reflect rising risks for even blue chips like Microsoft as they take on more debt and commit to years of large capital expenditures for a still developing, new technology.

That stunning acceleration in Wall Street’s estimates for Oracle’s cash burn is likely driving the rapid rise in the cost of Oracle CDS. Investors went from thinking that Oracle would generate $25 billion in free cash flow in 2028 to expecting the company to burn $25 billion 2028.

While recently, increased investments in anything AI-related have seemed to push stocks up, that this historical reversal has led not just to more expensive CDS but a slumping share price signals a rise in maybe not skepticism, but at least realism in the market when it comes to the AI boom.

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Microsoft is in talks to shift its custom chip business to Broadcom from Marvell, The Information reports

The Information’s profile of custom chip specialist Broadcom includes this tidbit:

“And now Microsoft is also in talks to design future chips with Broadcom, which would involve Microsoft switching its business from Marvell, another maker of custom chips, according to one person involved in the discussions.”

Shares of Marvell Technology briefly dipped into the red after this report hit the wires, but then pared that drop to trade modestly higher. The company codesigns the Maia line of ASICs for Microsoft that are custom-built for Azure. Microsoft is its second-biggest hyperscaler client, behind Amazon.

Marvell tumbled on a ho-hum earnings report earlier this week before going on to surge after CEO Matt Murphy offered a $10 billion revenue target for its upcoming fiscal year, which was above analysts’ expectations.

Perhaps this is a bit of Information fatigue, given how Microsoft was quick to deny a report from the outlet earlier this week about how the tech giant lowered its sales targets for AI products.

markets

Memory stocks soar as AI supporting cast repairs damage from steep November declines

There’s not much rhyme or reason to it, but memory stocks are ending the week with a stellar showing.

Shares of high-bandwidth memory specialist Micron, hard disk drive sellers Seagate Technology Holdings and Western Digital, and flash memory company Sandisk are all rising today.

Three of these stocks dropped about 20% in November as credit risk seeping into AI and a downturn in speculative momentum stocks weighed on the theme, with Sandisk faring the worst.

Micron, Western Digital, and Seagate have all since rebounded strongly and are about 5% or less from reclaiming all-time highs, while Sandisk has made up the least ground.

While GPUs (and, more recently, TPUs) get most of the headlines, data centers also need a boatload of memory chips that store information and feed it to those processors.

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Ulta soars as Q3 beat sparks flood of price target hikes

Ulta’s latest makeover is happening on Wall Street. Shares leapt Friday morning as analysts hiked their price targets after the beauty retailer topped Q3 estimates and raised its full-year outlook after the bell Thursday.

Earnings came in at $5.14 per share, handily beating analyst expectations of $4.64. Revenue also topped estimates at $2.86 billion, compared with the $2.72 billion expected. Ulta has benefited from resilient beauty spending, even as consumers pull back elsewhere and hunt more aggressively for discounts.

Ulta now expects full-year net sales of about $12.3 billion, up from a prior forecast of $12.0 billion to $12.1 billion. The retailer also lifted its earnings outlook to $25.20 to $25.50 per share, up from $23.85 to $24.30 previously. This marks Ulta’s second straight quarter of hiking its sales and profit forecast. Analysts are taking note:

  • Goldman Sachs maintained its “buy” rating and raised its price target to $642 from $584.

  • DA Davidson maintained its “buy” rating and raised its price target to $650 from $625.

  • JPMorgan maintained its “outperform” rating and raised its price target to $647 from $606.

  • Baird maintained its “outperform” rating and hiked its price target to $670 from $600.

  • Telsey Advisory maintained its “outperform” rating and raised its price target to $640 from $610.

  • Piper Sandler maintained its “outperform” rating and raised its price target to $615 from $590.

  • Canaccord Genuity maintained its “neutral” rating and raised its price target to $674 from $654.

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Southwest cuts its earnings outlook on lost revenue due to government shutdown

Another big four airline has put a price tag on the 43-day government shutdown.

Southwest Airlines on Friday said lower revenue due to a temporary decline in demand during the shutdown, together with higher fuel costs, will ding its annual earnings before interest and taxes by between $100 million and $300 million. The carrier lowered its full-year EBIT outlook to $500 million, down from a prior range of $600 million to $800 million.

According to Southwest’s filing, bookings have returned to previous expectations following the end of the shutdown. Its shares dipped down about 1% in premarket trading.

The carrier joins Delta Air Lines in assigning a cost to the government closure. Earlier this week, Delta said the shutdown would cost it $200 million in the fourth quarter.

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