Yiwen Lu8/12/24

US stocks go nowhere as market-moving data looms

Just seven days after a panicked sell-off, US stocks had a much calmer start to the week, as investors waited for direction ahead of a series of potential market-moving events.

The S&P 500 was unchanged, the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 was up 0.2%, and the Russell 2000 slipped 0.9%.

Investors are expecting this week to shed more light on the health of the economy, which had recently been called into question. The Consumer Price Index for July is slated for release on Wednesday, while retail sales will be announced on Thursday. Any deceleration in consumer spending could enhance fears of about softening demand and the economic outlook.

Additionally, concerns over the Middle East conflict escalated, as officials anticipated a possible Iranian attack on Israel. Geopolitical risk appeared to weigh on investor confidence, with markets giving back early gains following this news.

Major crude oil indexes also gained, with the US benchmark West Texas Intermediate rallying 3.7%, briefly topping $80 per barrel. Gold prices also increased by more than 1% on Monday, approaching all-time highs.

The S&P tech sector ETF was the best performer, up 0.8%. Aside from that, only energy and utilities finished in the green.

Shares of Trump Media & Technology Group, the company behind social media platform Truth Social, fell 5.1%. Its investors appeared to be nervous after Elon Musk said that he would interview Trump at 8 p.m. Eastern Time tonight on X, as well as seeing the former President posting for the first time on X since August, 2023.

KeyCorp was the best performing S&P 500 stock, up 9.2% on Monday. This followed the announcement that the Bank of Nova Scotia would acquire 14.9% of the U.S. regional bank, valued at $2.8 billion.

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While November is historically the best month for US stocks, the first week of the month in 2025 wasn’t great.

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The insanity over the Starbucks “Bearista” cups tells you everything you need to know about the US economy and markets

Upper-income consumers and megacap tech companies are both a) doing well and b) supply constrained.

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Retail traders are “skipping the dip” this time

Here’s one noteworthy feature of the recent market downturn that has the S&P 500 poised for its worst week since reciprocal tariffs were announced in early April: retail traders seemingly aren’t eager to buy the weakness in single stocks the way they used to be.

JPMorgan strategist Arun Jain has flagged that retail traders instead appear to be “skipping the dip.”

“In contrast to the behavior observed during the post-Liberation Day selloff, retail investors did not seize the opportunity to buy-the-dip on Tuesday, with a few exceptions such as META,” he wrote of the day where the benchmark US stock index fell 1.2%. “In fact, they scaled back their ETF purchases and turned net sellers in single stocks.”

Then on Thursday, when the S&P 500 fell 1.1%, Jain projected that retail traders sold $261 million in single stocks. Through noon ET on Friday, his daily outflow estimate stands at $851 million.

With that intel, it’s little wonder why the carnage this week has been particularly intense in more speculative single stocks that had been favored by the retail community, including IREN, IonQ, Rigetti, Cipher Mining, Bloom Energy, and Oklo.

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Archer Aviation plunges on $650 million share sale following its third-quarter results

Air taxi maker Archer Aviation is deep in the red on Friday morning after reporting its third-quarter results after the bell Thursday. The stock is down more than 12%.

Investors don’t appear to be thrilled about the company’s $650 million direct stock offering, announced alongside its results.

The move marks at least the third major equity raise, and dilution, for Archer this year. The company raised $300 million from a new stock sale in February, and sold $850 million worth of shares in June.

On Archer’s earnings call Thursday, interim CFO Priya Gupta said the company came to the decision after “substantial inbound interest.” According to Gupta, the company has heard from government and commercial partners that liquidity is a “key driver to their decisions of who to partner with.” With its latest share sale, Archer said its total liquidity is more than $2 billion.

Archer Aviation sinks after reporting better-than-expected Q3 loss, announces it will acquire LA’s Hawthorne Airport

Archer Aviation sinks after reporting better-than-expected Q3 loss, announces it will acquire LA’s Hawthorne Airport

The move marks at least the third major equity raise, and dilution, for Archer this year. The company raised $300 million from a new stock sale in February, and sold $850 million worth of shares in June.

On Archer’s earnings call Thursday, interim CFO Priya Gupta said the company came to the decision after “substantial inbound interest.” According to Gupta, the company has heard from government and commercial partners that liquidity is a “key driver to their decisions of who to partner with.” With its latest share sale, Archer said its total liquidity is more than $2 billion.

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