Yiwen Lu8/23/24

Stocks soar after the Fed green-lights an easing cycle

Major indexes rose on Friday after Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell said that it was time for a rate cut. Both S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 gained 1.2%. Small caps took the lead in the market boom, with the Russell 2000 up 3.2%.

The US Dollar index was down 0.8% to 100.7, hitting the lowest point since July 2023.

The 10-year Treasury yield fell 6.5 basis points to 3.8%, slightly up from earlier in the day at 3.79%, which was close to the bond yield's 2024 low. The policy-sensitive two-year Treasury yield was down 10 basis points to 3.91%.

All S&P 500 sector ETFs rallied. Real estate was the best-performing sector, up 2%, followed by consumer discretionary, buoyed by Carnival’s 7.5% advance and Norwegian Cruise Line 7.8% gain.

Big tech stocks also climbed after Thursday's sell-off. In particular, Tesla jumped 4.6% and Nvidia surged 4.5%.

Intuit was the worst S&P 500 performer. Shares closed with a 6.8% loss, as the owner of Turbo Tax reported earnings that beat estimates but issued poor guidance.

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Markets end first week of November on a mixed note

While November is historically the best month for US stocks, the first week of the month in 2025 wasn’t great.

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BEAR NECESSITIES

The insanity over the Starbucks “Bearista” cups tells you everything you need to know about the US economy and markets

Upper-income consumers and megacap tech companies are both a) doing well and b) supply constrained.

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Retail traders are “skipping the dip” this time

Here’s one noteworthy feature of the recent market downturn that has the S&P 500 poised for its worst week since reciprocal tariffs were announced in early April: retail traders seemingly aren’t eager to buy the weakness in single stocks the way they used to be.

JPMorgan strategist Arun Jain has flagged that retail traders instead appear to be “skipping the dip.”

“In contrast to the behavior observed during the post-Liberation Day selloff, retail investors did not seize the opportunity to buy-the-dip on Tuesday, with a few exceptions such as META,” he wrote of the day where the benchmark US stock index fell 1.2%. “In fact, they scaled back their ETF purchases and turned net sellers in single stocks.”

Then on Thursday, when the S&P 500 fell 1.1%, Jain projected that retail traders sold $261 million in single stocks. Through noon ET on Friday, his daily outflow estimate stands at $851 million.

With that intel, it’s little wonder why the carnage this week has been particularly intense in more speculative single stocks that had been favored by the retail community, including IREN, IonQ, Rigetti, Cipher Mining, Bloom Energy, and Oklo.

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Archer Aviation plunges on $650 million share sale following its third-quarter results

Air taxi maker Archer Aviation is deep in the red on Friday morning after reporting its third-quarter results after the bell Thursday. The stock is down more than 12%.

Investors don’t appear to be thrilled about the company’s $650 million direct stock offering, announced alongside its results.

The move marks at least the third major equity raise, and dilution, for Archer this year. The company raised $300 million from a new stock sale in February, and sold $850 million worth of shares in June.

On Archer’s earnings call Thursday, interim CFO Priya Gupta said the company came to the decision after “substantial inbound interest.” According to Gupta, the company has heard from government and commercial partners that liquidity is a “key driver to their decisions of who to partner with.” With its latest share sale, Archer said its total liquidity is more than $2 billion.

Archer Aviation sinks after reporting better-than-expected Q3 loss, announces it will acquire LA’s Hawthorne Airport

Archer Aviation sinks after reporting better-than-expected Q3 loss, announces it will acquire LA’s Hawthorne Airport

The move marks at least the third major equity raise, and dilution, for Archer this year. The company raised $300 million from a new stock sale in February, and sold $850 million worth of shares in June.

On Archer’s earnings call Thursday, interim CFO Priya Gupta said the company came to the decision after “substantial inbound interest.” According to Gupta, the company has heard from government and commercial partners that liquidity is a “key driver to their decisions of who to partner with.” With its latest share sale, Archer said its total liquidity is more than $2 billion.

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