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HP slides on weak 2026 outlook and layoffs despite topping quarterly estimates

HP slumped more than 5% in premarket trading after the computer and printer giant announced weaker-than-expected guidance for fiscal 2026 alongside plans for a roughly 10% cut to its workforce. The company reported having 58,000 employees as of October 2024, per its latest annual filing.

For the fiscal fourth quarter ended October 31, sales rose 4% year over year to $14.64 billion, topping the $14.48 billion expected. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $0.93, just about 1% ahead of the LSEG consensus.

What spooked investors was HP’s soft FY2026 EPS forecast of $2.90 to $3.20, well below Wall Street’s $3.33 estimate at the midpoint. The company said its outlook reflects “the added cost driven by the current U.S. trade-related regulations in place, and associated mitigations.”

Behind the muted outlook is a sharp rise in memory chip prices — now 15% to 18% of a typical PC’s cost — which may offset some of the lift HP’s PC business is getting from Windows 11 upgrades, while the printer segment remains a drag, with revenue down 4% as customers delay purchases.

The company also announced plans to reduce global headcount by around 4,000 to 6,000 employees as part of a restructuring tied to a new AI push — with CEO Enrique Lores saying in an interview with Yahoo Finance that AI will eventually do many tasks better and faster. HP expects the plan to generate $1 billion in annualized savings by FY2028. The move mirrors its 2022 restructuring, which also targeted up to 6,000 job cuts and ultimately delivered $2.2 billion in gross savings, per the company.

With this morning’s slide, HP shares are down nearly 30% for the year.

What spooked investors was HP’s soft FY2026 EPS forecast of $2.90 to $3.20, well below Wall Street’s $3.33 estimate at the midpoint. The company said its outlook reflects “the added cost driven by the current U.S. trade-related regulations in place, and associated mitigations.”

Behind the muted outlook is a sharp rise in memory chip prices — now 15% to 18% of a typical PC’s cost — which may offset some of the lift HP’s PC business is getting from Windows 11 upgrades, while the printer segment remains a drag, with revenue down 4% as customers delay purchases.

The company also announced plans to reduce global headcount by around 4,000 to 6,000 employees as part of a restructuring tied to a new AI push — with CEO Enrique Lores saying in an interview with Yahoo Finance that AI will eventually do many tasks better and faster. HP expects the plan to generate $1 billion in annualized savings by FY2028. The move mirrors its 2022 restructuring, which also targeted up to 6,000 job cuts and ultimately delivered $2.2 billion in gross savings, per the company.

With this morning’s slide, HP shares are down nearly 30% for the year.

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Report: Boeing could unveil 500-jet order from China during Trump’s visit later this month

Shares of Boeing are up nearly 4% on Friday afternoon, following a Bloomberg report that the company could be close to finalizing a deal to sell 500 planes to China.

The deal was first reported in August and would be one of Boeing’s largest ever.

According to Bloomberg’s sources, the deal could be officially unveiled when President Trump travels to China at the end of the month. That trip could be delayed given the war in Iran. The deal, sources say, could still fall apart — similar language to when it was first reported on more than six months ago.

Boeing has been on the outside of the Chinese market, in terms of new orders, since 2019 amid escalating US-China trade tensions.

According to Bloomberg’s sources, the deal could be officially unveiled when President Trump travels to China at the end of the month. That trip could be delayed given the war in Iran. The deal, sources say, could still fall apart — similar language to when it was first reported on more than six months ago.

Boeing has been on the outside of the Chinese market, in terms of new orders, since 2019 amid escalating US-China trade tensions.

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Why software shares are withstanding the war jitters

The outbreak of the war in Iran has clearly rattled investors and created a few clear winners — mostly energy stocks — and losers — consumer staples, airlines, and, well, more or else everything else.

But there is one interesting outlier to that Manichaean market dynamic.

Software shares — often the same companies that the market was giving up for dead just a few weeks ago due to overexpectations of an AI-driven disruption — have been holding up remarkably well.

These companies, including Intuit, ServiceNow, Datadog, Snowflake, IBM, Workday, and Oracle, have actually had a pretty decent run since the war started with a combined US-Israeli attack on Iran last weekend.

A new note from RBC Capital’s Rishi Jaluria suggests this isn’t just a fluke. Looking at the performance of software stocks during periods of geopolitical stress and market volatility over the last 10 and 25 years, his team found that software shares appear fairly well insulated when these broader shocks hit. RBC wrote:

“The defensive nature of SaaS models and the mission-critical nature of many core software systems at the enterprise level (e.g., in the absence of mass layoffs that may create seat-based headwinds, geopolitical uncertainty and/or market volatility typically will not cause an enterprise CIO to consider ripping out their ERP, CRM, Cyber systems, etc.”

I briefly got Jaluria on the phone yesterday, and he explained a bit more about why he thinks investors might see software as a decent place to hide out from the current chaos.

“With everything in the Middle East, you have to think about not just oil and gas input prices but also supply chains,” he said. “With software, you’re not really thinking about that.”

In other words, there is no equivalent of a closure of the Strait of Hormuz that software investors have to worry about.

Others suggested that the near-term profitability of these giant software companies — aside from concerns about potential long-term disruption from AI — may look different in the face of the economic uncertainty that seems to be growing with the war, especially after a sell-off that has left them relatively attractively valued.

Mark Moerdler, who covers software stocks for Bernstein Research, says that while the AI worries are clearly real, software companies continue to be highly productive cash cows.

“Everyone is afraid that AI is a massive disruptor, and all these articles you read talk about AI as massive disruptor or the world is ending or whatever,” he said. “You don’t see it in the fundamental numbers of the companies I cover. They are delivering GAAP profits, free cash flow, and they’re good investment ideas.”

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