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Housing stocks rise after Trump calls for $200 billion mortgage bond purchase

Housing-related stocks rose in after-hours trading yesterday, and remained in the green early on Friday, after President Trump said he would direct a large-scale purchase of mortgage bonds in a bid to lower borrowing costs.

In a Truth Social post yesterday, Trump said he is instructing his Representatives to buy $200 billion in mortgage bonds, arguing the move will drive Mortgage Rates DOWN, monthly payments DOWN, and make the cost of owning a home more affordable. The purchase will be executed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, per an X post by Bill Pulte, director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, which oversees the two firms.

Shares of mortgage lenders surged early Friday, with Rocket Companies and UWM Holdings both up around 6% as of 7 a.m. ET and LoanDepot rising as much as 16.8%. Online real estate platform Opendoor Technologies jumped 8.4%, while home builders like Lennar saw more modest gains.

According to Trumps post, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are now worth many timeswhat they were in his first term — a result he attributed to his decision not to sell the firms — creating AN ABSOLUTE FORTUNE and leaving them with $200 BILLION DOLLARS IN CASH.

Filings suggest that figure may refer more to liquidity than cash on hand. Per Reuters, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac held less than $17 billion in combined cash and cash equivalents as of September 30, though they control ~$192 billion when including other liquid assets. Pulte told Reuters that the firms have ample liquidity to carry out Trumps purchase order.

The Wall Street Journal also noted that the companies do have room on their balance sheets to add mortgage bonds: each is permitted to hold up to $225 billion in mortgage-backed securities, but together hold about $247 billion as of November, leaving roughly $200 billion in remaining capacity.

While the impact on mortgage rates remains uncertain, economists estimate the purchase would likely put some downward pressure by around 0.25 percentage points, while others predict a smaller effect of roughly 0.10 to 0.15 percentage points.

The move comes as Trump has promised to unveil some of the most aggressive housing reform plans in American history in a December address. Earlier this week, he said he would ban large institutional investors from buying single-family homes to ease the housing shortage.

The US housing market remains deeply strained, with home sales having fallen to their lowest since the 1990s and homeowners experiencing the worst lock-in effect in more than four decades. Thirty-year mortgage rates remain elevated, now hovering around 6.2%.

According to Trumps post, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are now worth many timeswhat they were in his first term — a result he attributed to his decision not to sell the firms — creating AN ABSOLUTE FORTUNE and leaving them with $200 BILLION DOLLARS IN CASH.

Filings suggest that figure may refer more to liquidity than cash on hand. Per Reuters, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac held less than $17 billion in combined cash and cash equivalents as of September 30, though they control ~$192 billion when including other liquid assets. Pulte told Reuters that the firms have ample liquidity to carry out Trumps purchase order.

The Wall Street Journal also noted that the companies do have room on their balance sheets to add mortgage bonds: each is permitted to hold up to $225 billion in mortgage-backed securities, but together hold about $247 billion as of November, leaving roughly $200 billion in remaining capacity.

While the impact on mortgage rates remains uncertain, economists estimate the purchase would likely put some downward pressure by around 0.25 percentage points, while others predict a smaller effect of roughly 0.10 to 0.15 percentage points.

The move comes as Trump has promised to unveil some of the most aggressive housing reform plans in American history in a December address. Earlier this week, he said he would ban large institutional investors from buying single-family homes to ease the housing shortage.

The US housing market remains deeply strained, with home sales having fallen to their lowest since the 1990s and homeowners experiencing the worst lock-in effect in more than four decades. Thirty-year mortgage rates remain elevated, now hovering around 6.2%.

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United beats Q1 earnings and revenue estimates, lowers full-year profit guidance amid surging jet fuel prices

United Airlines reported its first-quarter earnings results after the bell on Tuesday. The carrier’s shares ticked down in after-hours trading.

For Q1, United reported:

  • Adjusted earnings of $1.19 per share, compared to the Wall Street estimate of $1.08 per share compiled by FactSet.

  • $14.6 billion in revenue, compared to the $14.39 billion consensus estimate.

In the first quarter, United’s fuel expense grew 12.6% from the same period last year to $3.04 billion.

For the second quarter, United expects adjusted earnings per share of between $1 and $2, shy of Wall Street expectations of $2.08. For the full year ahead, United said it expects earnings between $7 and $11 per share, compared to its prior guidance of between $12 and $14 per share.

“Guidance assumes United’s revenue recovers 40% to 50% of the fuel price increases in the second quarter, 70% to 80% of the fuel price increases in the third quarter and 85% to 100% of the fuel price increases in the fourth quarter 2026,” read the company’s investor update.

Earlier this month, United was among the first major US airlines to hike its bag fees amid higher fuel costs. Its shares have fallen more than 15% from a February high days before the war in Iran began.

United has also made waves this month following reports that CEO Scott Kirby had floated the idea of a merger with American Airlines to President Trump. A merger between two of the big four airlines would create a true US behemoth, controlling more than a third of the American market. American Air last week said it wasn’t interested in merging with United and hadn’t held talks on the idea. On Tuesday, Trump told CNBC that he doesn’t like the idea either.

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Hedge funds are following retail traders into the Magnificent 7

Hedge funds are following retail traders into the stocks the masses never stopped buying.

“As we kick off earnings for megacap tech stocks, this stood out: [hedge funds] have started buying Mag7 stocks again this month though positioning remains well below the peak levels seen in early 2016,” wrote Goldman Sachs’ Cullen Morgan.

Goldman PB Mag 7
Source: Goldman Sachs

In early April, JPMorgan strategist Arun Jain noted that retail investors had basically been selling everything but the Magnificent 7 stocks as part of a more cautious stance due to the Iran war.

(Apple has been a long-standing exception to this trend, presumably because retail traders arent fond of its hands-off approach to AI.)

JPM Retail flows

Last August, Jain discussed how retail activity tended to “crowd in” institutional buyers in meme stocks, while Goldman’s John Marshall advised clients to piggyback on stocks beloved by retail traders. Speculative, retail-geared assets proceeded to go on a tremendous run that soured in October.

But there are some early indications that a similar bout of speculative fervor is bubbling up once more.

markets

POET Technologies surges above $10 for first time in 4 years amid explosion in call volumes

POET Technologies is up nearly 40% this week as options market activity goes haywire in a faint echo of what got the stock on retail traders’ radars in October.

As of 11:12 a.m. ET, more than 10 calls have changed hands for every put traded. This bullish impulse has propelled the stock above the $10 threshold for the first time since March 2022.

Shares of the optical communications firm briefly dipped last week after Wolfpack Research said it was short the company because its investors would be exposed to an “IRS tax nightmare.”

The company responded that day saying it was taking measures for US shareholders that “should mitigate certain potential adverse US federal income tax consequences to it that could otherwise result from the Company’s status as a passive foreign investment company.”

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