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Housing stocks rise after Trump calls for $200 billion mortgage bond purchase

Housing-related stocks rose in after-hours trading yesterday, and remained in the green early on Friday, after President Trump said he would direct a large-scale purchase of mortgage bonds in a bid to lower borrowing costs.

In a Truth Social post yesterday, Trump said he is instructing his Representatives to buy $200 billion in mortgage bonds, arguing the move will drive Mortgage Rates DOWN, monthly payments DOWN, and make the cost of owning a home more affordable. The purchase will be executed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, per an X post by Bill Pulte, director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, which oversees the two firms.

Shares of mortgage lenders surged early Friday, with Rocket Companies and UWM Holdings both up around 6% as of 7 a.m. ET and LoanDepot rising as much as 16.8%. Online real estate platform Opendoor Technologies jumped 8.4%, while home builders like Lennar saw more modest gains.

According to Trumps post, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are now worth many timeswhat they were in his first term — a result he attributed to his decision not to sell the firms — creating AN ABSOLUTE FORTUNE and leaving them with $200 BILLION DOLLARS IN CASH.

Filings suggest that figure may refer more to liquidity than cash on hand. Per Reuters, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac held less than $17 billion in combined cash and cash equivalents as of September 30, though they control ~$192 billion when including other liquid assets. Pulte told Reuters that the firms have ample liquidity to carry out Trumps purchase order.

The Wall Street Journal also noted that the companies do have room on their balance sheets to add mortgage bonds: each is permitted to hold up to $225 billion in mortgage-backed securities, but together hold about $247 billion as of November, leaving roughly $200 billion in remaining capacity.

While the impact on mortgage rates remains uncertain, economists estimate the purchase would likely put some downward pressure by around 0.25 percentage points, while others predict a smaller effect of roughly 0.10 to 0.15 percentage points.

The move comes as Trump has promised to unveil some of the most aggressive housing reform plans in American history in a December address. Earlier this week, he said he would ban large institutional investors from buying single-family homes to ease the housing shortage.

The US housing market remains deeply strained, with home sales having fallen to their lowest since the 1990s and homeowners experiencing the worst lock-in effect in more than four decades. Thirty-year mortgage rates remain elevated, now hovering around 6.2%.

According to Trumps post, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are now worth many timeswhat they were in his first term — a result he attributed to his decision not to sell the firms — creating AN ABSOLUTE FORTUNE and leaving them with $200 BILLION DOLLARS IN CASH.

Filings suggest that figure may refer more to liquidity than cash on hand. Per Reuters, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac held less than $17 billion in combined cash and cash equivalents as of September 30, though they control ~$192 billion when including other liquid assets. Pulte told Reuters that the firms have ample liquidity to carry out Trumps purchase order.

The Wall Street Journal also noted that the companies do have room on their balance sheets to add mortgage bonds: each is permitted to hold up to $225 billion in mortgage-backed securities, but together hold about $247 billion as of November, leaving roughly $200 billion in remaining capacity.

While the impact on mortgage rates remains uncertain, economists estimate the purchase would likely put some downward pressure by around 0.25 percentage points, while others predict a smaller effect of roughly 0.10 to 0.15 percentage points.

The move comes as Trump has promised to unveil some of the most aggressive housing reform plans in American history in a December address. Earlier this week, he said he would ban large institutional investors from buying single-family homes to ease the housing shortage.

The US housing market remains deeply strained, with home sales having fallen to their lowest since the 1990s and homeowners experiencing the worst lock-in effect in more than four decades. Thirty-year mortgage rates remain elevated, now hovering around 6.2%.

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Report: Boeing could unveil 500-jet order from China during Trump’s visit later this month

Shares of Boeing are up nearly 4% on Friday afternoon, following a Bloomberg report that the company could be close to finalizing a deal to sell 500 planes to China.

The deal was first reported in August and would be one of Boeing’s largest ever.

According to Bloomberg’s sources, the deal could be officially unveiled when President Trump travels to China at the end of the month. That trip could be delayed given the war in Iran. The deal, sources say, could still fall apart — similar language to when it was first reported on more than six months ago.

Boeing has been on the outside of the Chinese market, in terms of new orders, since 2019 amid escalating US-China trade tensions.

According to Bloomberg’s sources, the deal could be officially unveiled when President Trump travels to China at the end of the month. That trip could be delayed given the war in Iran. The deal, sources say, could still fall apart — similar language to when it was first reported on more than six months ago.

Boeing has been on the outside of the Chinese market, in terms of new orders, since 2019 amid escalating US-China trade tensions.

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Why software shares are withstanding the war jitters

The outbreak of the war in Iran has clearly rattled investors and created a few clear winners — mostly energy stocks — and losers — consumer staples, airlines, and, well, more or else everything else.

But there is one interesting outlier to that Manichaean market dynamic.

Software shares — often the same companies that the market was giving up for dead just a few weeks ago due to overexpectations of an AI-driven disruption — have been holding up remarkably well.

These companies, including Intuit, ServiceNow, Datadog, Snowflake, IBM, Workday, and Oracle, have actually had a pretty decent run since the war started with a combined US-Israeli attack on Iran last weekend.

A new note from RBC Capital’s Rishi Jaluria suggests this isn’t just a fluke. Looking at the performance of software stocks during periods of geopolitical stress and market volatility over the last 10 and 25 years, his team found that software shares appear fairly well insulated when these broader shocks hit. RBC wrote:

“The defensive nature of SaaS models and the mission-critical nature of many core software systems at the enterprise level (e.g., in the absence of mass layoffs that may create seat-based headwinds, geopolitical uncertainty and/or market volatility typically will not cause an enterprise CIO to consider ripping out their ERP, CRM, Cyber systems, etc.”

I briefly got Jaluria on the phone yesterday, and he explained a bit more about why he thinks investors might see software as a decent place to hide out from the current chaos.

“With everything in the Middle East, you have to think about not just oil and gas input prices but also supply chains,” he said. “With software, you’re not really thinking about that.”

In other words, there is no equivalent of a closure of the Strait of Hormuz that software investors have to worry about.

Others suggested that the near-term profitability of these giant software companies — aside from concerns about potential long-term disruption from AI — may look different in the face of the economic uncertainty that seems to be growing with the war, especially after a sell-off that has left them relatively attractively valued.

Mark Moerdler, who covers software stocks for Bernstein Research, says that while the AI worries are clearly real, software companies continue to be highly productive cash cows.

“Everyone is afraid that AI is a massive disruptor, and all these articles you read talk about AI as massive disruptor or the world is ending or whatever,” he said. “You don’t see it in the fundamental numbers of the companies I cover. They are delivering GAAP profits, free cash flow, and they’re good investment ideas.”

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