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Gold vs Stocks
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Gold smashes past $4,000 an ounce, cementing its dominance over stocks over the last 1, 5, 10, and 25 years

The precious metal is soaring in value.

All that glitters is gold... especially in today’s market.

On Tuesday, the precious metal climbed above $4,000 per troy ounce for the first time, fueled by worries on inflation, soaring debt piles, the decline of the dollar, and geopolitical volatility (among other reasons).

Long considered a safe haven asset, gold bullion surpassed $1,000 during the financial crisis, $2,000 through the pandemic, and the $3,000 threshold in March, just ahead of President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs. More recently, both central banks and individual investors have been pilling into gold, with still stubborn US inflation, Fed cuts, and the ongoing US government shutdown encouraging investors to diversify their exposure away from USD — extending a rally that has sent prices up more than 50% this year.

With this latest run, the simple price return of gold now outshines that of the SPDR S&P 500 Trust across 1, 5, 10, and 25 years (note: dividends not included).

Gold vs Stocks
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So, where do we go from here?

Looking ahead, some of Wall Street has mixed thoughts on gold. Bank of America analysts see the potential for “uptrend exhaustion” that could lead to “a consolidation or correction” in the fourth quarter, with many banks’ price forecasts lagging the price action of the last few weeks. Goldman Sachs analysts, however, also chimed in with a still bullish note this week, hiking their end-of-2026 target price to $4,900 from $4,300, citing central bank and ETF demand.

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Oil settles Friday at highest level since start of war

US oil prices moved higher in afternoon trading Friday, sapping strength from the stock market as they posted their highest close since the start of the Iran war.

After another day where the Strait of Hormuz was essentially closed to global tanker traffic, US futures for West Texas Intermediate settled up 3.1% at $98.71 a barrel for an 8.6% weekly gain, per Dow Jones data.

American officials have discussed using the US Navy to escort tankers through the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman, but have said plans for such convoys are not ready yet. However, it is unclear if military convoys would bring an end to the war-related dislocations in the oil market.

“It could help,” Tom Liles, senior vice president of upstream research at energy consulting firm Rystad, told Sherwood News in a recent interview. “It could also go in a lot of different directions if a Navy ship is hit or if a tanker is hit.”

American officials have discussed using the US Navy to escort tankers through the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman, but have said plans for such convoys are not ready yet. However, it is unclear if military convoys would bring an end to the war-related dislocations in the oil market.

“It could help,” Tom Liles, senior vice president of upstream research at energy consulting firm Rystad, told Sherwood News in a recent interview. “It could also go in a lot of different directions if a Navy ship is hit or if a tanker is hit.”

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Memory stocks rebound off last weeks losses

Memory stocks Micron, Sandisk, Western Digital, and Seagate Technology Holdings rose again Friday, putting these crucial providers of chips for AI inference work on track for big weekly gains after last week’s steep losses following the outbreak of war with Iran.

There’s no obvious trigger for the move higher for these shares this week, other than a bit of a recovery in the AI trade more broadly — AI beneficiaries like IT cable and connections maker Amphenol and custom chip and networking company Marvell Technology clawed back some gains this week — perhaps due Oracle’s earnings earlier, and some mean reversion to boot.

Micron is due to report earnings after the close of trading on Wednesday, with the company catching a couple price target hikes this week, including one from Wedbush on Friday.

Sandisk is something of a different story, as its enormous gains over the last 12 months — roughly 1,200% — have made it a momentum play beloved by the retail crowd.

It was up about 20% this week at around 11 a.m. ET. And its nearly 170% gain this year keeps the stock on top of the S&P 500, in terms of price performance.

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